the international oil price exceeded $1 a barrel
on February 1st, the international oil price of electronic disks in Asian trading hours remained above $1 a barrel. The day before, the international oil price soared, and the Brent crude oil futures price of the Intercontinental Exchange in London reached $11.1 per barrel, which was the first time that the international oil price had re-entered the $1 mark since October 28. On January 31st, the price of crude oil futures in new york market rose more than 3% to $92.19 per barrel. This bull market is mainly caused by geopolitical factors such as the turmoil in Egypt.
Egypt is not a major oil producer, but the Suez Canal is an important channel for crude oil transportation in the Middle East. 2.4 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the Suez Canal every day, which is close to the daily output of Iraq or Brazil. The market is worried that the key energy transportation channel may be blocked, which will cause supply disruption in some parts of the world. The Suez Canal operator confirmed on January 31 that the canal shipping was normal that day.
don't panic! Is the main force still diving this time? The locked stock is likely to be saved! The stock market is likely to change dramatically in March? The hidden funds behind the tug-of-war! On the morning of the 1st, international oil prices dropped slightly during Asian trading hours. An investment analyst at Philip Futures Company in Singapore said that this was due to some high profit-taking in buying. After all, oil prices have been at a 27-month high. He predicted that the decline in oil prices is only temporary, and if the tension in Egypt continues, oil prices may rise further.
Throughout 21, despite the ups and downs of international oil prices, the upward trend driven by the fundamentals of world economic recovery has been basically established.
The International Monetary Fund recently raised its global economic growth forecast to 4.4% this year, .2 percentage points higher than the forecast made in October last year. The economies of Asia, Africa and Latin America are expected to continue to maintain strong growth, and the growth prospects of developed countries are also optimistic, and the risk of a double dip in the global economy is basically ruled out. Therefore, the global daily demand for crude oil may increase greatly in 211, and the change of supply and demand will support the rise of oil prices.
this round of oil price increase is also closely related to financial factors. In November last year, the Federal Reserve launched a new round of quantitative easing policy, and the dollar liquidity released from it had a great impact on the international oil market. Taking this move by the Federal Reserve as the time node, the international oil price changed the previous trend of hovering between 6 and 8 dollars, reaching above 9 dollars in mid-December last year, and stood at the $1 mark again at the end of January this year, which was faster than many analysts expected. With the increase in the liquidity of the US dollar, the US dollar index, which measures the exchange rate trend of the US dollar against other major international currencies, fell by 1.6% in January this year. As the US dollar is the main currency of international crude oil, the "seesaw" effect of the depreciation of the US dollar on the rise of oil prices is very obvious.
analysts believe that the international oil price is expected to rise steadily in 211, and whether there will be an irrational rise depends on the comprehensive effects of market supply and demand, global liquidity and geopolitical factors.