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Fund evaluation team stock
Disc observation

On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded quickly after falling rapidly in early trading, and weakened again in the afternoon. The three major stock indexes all closed at the negative line, with a turnover of 986.7 billion in the two cities. On the disk, port water transport, tourist hotels, steel industry, civil aviation airports and other sectors were among the top gainers, while aerospace, shipbuilding, environmental protection engineering and petroleum industries were among the top losers. The daily limit of the two cities was 46, with a daily limit of 7 1, and the net inflow of funds from the north was 2.4 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.82% to 3,359.29 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.80% to13,475.72 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.50% to 2,633.45 points.

market outlook

Emotions are released faster today. In early trading, foreign media reported that state funds entered the market to maintain stability, and the Shanghai Composite Index once turned red. The stock index weakened again in the afternoon because of doubts about the credibility of the news. However, from the perspective of fund monitoring, there are indeed funds entering the market today and starting to take over, which is the first time since the adjustment of 14 trading days. In yesterday's evaluation, we mentioned the research institute's discounted cash flow method calculation model that "the yield of US bonds will drop 1%, which will bring about an expansion of core assets valuation by about 30%", and the core assets of the fund will generally be adjusted by 30% after the year. The valuation premium caused by the decline in discount rate in the past year has basically recovered, thus attracting funds to enter the market. We can probably predict that as long as the yield of 10 US bonds is stable at the pre-epidemic level of 1.6% (there is actually an interval platform of 7 months 1.5- 1.9%), the core assets will enter the period of shock bottoming out, and there is limited room for further repair. From a technical point of view, the adjustment of the three major stock indexes is caused by the top deviation of the weekly K-line level. At present, the stock index has returned to the consolidation platform in the second half of last year, and the SSE at the bottom of the platform is around 3200 points, which should be the limit adjustment position. In the short term, today's low point is expected to be the support of the shock bottoming because there are funds trying to enter the market. The stabilization of large orders and the decline of small orders will form a seesaw effect, which is a game point that needs attention in short-term trading operations. However, the disintegration of the group is expected to repair and improve the valuation of the premium extrusion of core assets between China and the United States in the past year.

Operation strategy

It is suggested to focus on the topics of carbon neutrality, bank insurance, air travel and upward repair of small and medium-sized stocks. Luo Limin, investment consultant of GF Securities, with the practice certificate number of 0260611010126.