Ten major data points to see whether A-shares are going to be extremely prosperous. This week is a critical week for the long-short game.

On Sunday, the State Council announced good news for pension funds entering the market. On Monday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index plummeted 8.49%. On Tuesday night, the management launched a heavy blow, especially the central bank once again cut reserve requirements and interest rates. On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell below 10,000 points.

point mark, both hitting new lows since this round of mid-term adjustments.

When many people were worried about "Black Thursday", the market staged a desperate counterattack; the market continued to advance on Friday, reaching 3200 points.

In fact, it is better to look at the data than to be bullish or bearish. After the plunge, at least 10 data showed whether the market will recover.

Data 1: China’s economy still maintains a growth rate of 7%.

The profit decline of industrial companies widened to 2.9% in July, causing many people to worry about a decline in economic growth in the third quarter.

However, Premier Li Keqiang said in his speech at the China-France Business Summit not long ago that we have the ability and confidence to achieve the economic growth target of about 7%, maintain medium-to-high growth in the long term, and move towards the medium-to-high level.

Prime Minister Li has said similar words many times on different occasions at home and abroad.

The French Prime Minister and the German President both affirmed that China will do everything possible to stabilize the economy, and many international investment banks are also optimistic about China's soft landing.

It just so happens that some domestic research institutions always point to China's economic slowdown.

In fact, in the first half of the year, despite the complex and severe international and domestic environment and various difficulties and challenges, China's economy still grew by 7%.

From a global perspective, this speed is not inferior to that of developed countries in Europe and the United States and emerging market countries.

Especially in the long term, the fundamentals of China's economic improvement have not changed, and the basic characteristics of the economy's good resilience, sufficient potential, and large room for maneuver have not changed, especially as the adjustment and optimization of the economic structure continues to advance, and new growth represented by the Internet economy and other

Point to accelerate growth.

All this shows that our country's economy is fully equipped to maintain medium-to-high growth in the coming period.

Comment: China's economy has entered a new normal. As the world's second largest economy with a total economic volume of more than 10 trillion U.S. dollars, China's economic growth can still maintain around 7%, which is truly a miracle in the world.

Under the complicated international and domestic situation, China's current good situation is hard-won.

Investors should have full confidence in China's economy and capital markets.

Data 2: There have been four RRR cuts and interest rate cuts this year.

The consumer price index (CPI) in July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, indicating a clear signal of macroeconomic stabilization and recovery.

Some people say that the rise in CPI is a certain rebound driven by the pig cycle.

According to data released by the central bank on August 11, both money supply and credit growth increased significantly in July. By the end of July, broad money supply (M2) increased by 13.3%, and the growth rate increased by 1.5 percentage points from the end of the previous month.

.

The rise in CPI is just a projection of the rise in money supply and credit growth rates.

Since the beginning of this year, after the People's Bank of China successively cut reserve requirements and interest rates, social liquidity has gradually become abundant, and M2 growth has rebounded month by month from 10.1% in April, rising by 0.7, 1.0 and 1.5 percentage points respectively from May to July.

On the other hand, on August 27, the 7-day Shibor interest rate dropped to 2.3980%, the lowest level since June 18 this year, a cumulative decrease of 48.31% compared with 4.6390% on December 31, 2014.

The central bank's interpretation is that the risk-free interest rate has fallen and the willingness to invest in the real economy has picked up, directly driving demand for loans.

Comment: Some people always compare this crash with 2008, which means it is worse than the Great Bear Market.

As everyone knows, in 2008, macroeconomic policy entered a rate-raising cycle, and now it is in a rate-cutting cycle.

Lower interest rates have been verified by many markets as a systemic benefit to the stock market's rise.

Data 3: Housing prices in 70 cities have increased more than decreased for the first time this year.

The National Bureau of Statistics released real estate statistics on August 18. In terms of newly built commercial housing, compared with the previous month, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, prices fell in 29 cities, increased in 31 cities, and remained unchanged in 10 cities.

indivual.

This is the first time this year that the number of cities with rising commodity housing prices has exceeded the number of cities with falling prices.

Against this background, six ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Ministry of Commerce recently issued documents to adjust policies for foreign investment access and management in the real estate market.

The New Deal has lifted restrictions on foreign investment in real estate and home purchases to a certain extent, sending a signal that China welcomes foreign investment in China, encouraging some foreign investors to have better space to settle in China, and also considering boosting the economy and preventing capital flight.

Especially for cities that are not subject to home purchase restrictions, the loosening of property market restrictions means that there are no longer restrictions on the number of houses purchased by overseas individuals.

At present, the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Sanya are still implementing purchase restriction policies, while the purchase restriction policies in key cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Chongqing, Tianjin, Dalian, Qingdao, Zhuhai, and Shenyang have themselves been cancelled.

Such cities have a relatively large foreign population and there are no restrictions on the number of houses purchased by foreign individuals, which will stimulate such foreigners to actively purchase houses.

It is obvious that the new policy will increase the number of inquiries from foreigners about purchasing houses from some real estate companies in the next few days, which may further boost housing prices in first-tier cities.

Comment: Real estate has the ability to influence many industries. It can be said that "one hair affects the whole body." Changes in real estate investment will affect 40 related industries such as infrastructure, building materials, home appliances, and greening.

The Ministry of Finance recently stated that it will step up efforts to promote major investment projects and issue the 2016 investment plan in advance.