There is a risk that the market will continue to break its position in the short term, so it is recommended to hold money to hedge.
It will definitely continue to fall, and the bear market will continue to hit a new bottom after oversold and rebound.
Since August 12, this shock box has lasted for 18 trading days. Although there has been a surge caused by rumors, rumors are rumors. With the bursting of rumors, the market continues to fluctuate and go down, and the bargain-hunting of hot money in the middle is getting weaker and weaker. However, the market continues to be suppressed by the moving average, and the shock box cannot be broken. Finally, it chose to jump and break the position, breaking a new low. If the market can't make a huge breakthrough above 1 1000 billion and make up for this gap, then the downtrend channel of the market will open, and this gap will become a new top pressure zone, and the market outlook will continue to bottom out. Previously, the market once supported the 720-day line, but it still fell sharply on August 8 and opened the downtrend channel. The market once fell when it ran near the 960-day line. Later, because the hot money rose 178 points higher than the market through rumors, but the rumors did not come out, and the 960-day line went down after being broken again. Now the lines 1440, 1800 and 2 160 are intertwined. The strongest support area (short-term final support area at 2034~2 150) has been formed since 3300, but if this area fails to stand firm, the next support area below the market will descend to around 1400~ 1500. There are rumors in the short term that there are so-called benefits in the market. There is a high probability that the mechanism will be released to cooperate with the shipment. Don't expect too much from the government's policies. Investment is a rational activity, and there should not be too many emotional factors in it. Recently, the market announced that the net reduction of institutions in August was nearly 20 billion. According to the spirit of the recent meeting of the Political Supervision Committee, it is revealed that the two rescue policies of margin financing and stock index futures are still under discussion, so we should get on the right track and optimistically estimate what will happen in early 2009. The Chairman of the Political Supervision Committee once again said that market problems should be solved by the market, and we should not wait for policies to rescue the market as soon as something happens, which does not meet the government's requirements for the marketization of the stock market. However, the size of the stock market is a huge problem and needs to be approved by the State Council Province, not prohibited by the Political Supervision Committee.
There are many good rumors in the market now, mainly in the following aspects.
1, the CSRC's "secondary issuance" solves the problem of non-size (the relevant person of the CSRC once said that the secondary issuance only reduces the concentration of lifting the ban by breaking up the non-size, and does not limit the lifting of the ban. At the same time, it is said that limiting the size of shares is contrary to the spirit of share reform and the market, and the news is significant negative. If investors can understand? )
2. Margin financing may be launched after the Olympic Games (unconfirmed).
3. JPMorgan Chase Gong Fangxiong said that the government will introduce a 100-billion-level economic stimulus plan. (On Tuesday, Darkmouth declared that the so-called 100-billion-level economic stimulus plan is only a plan and idea that the country should formulate. This rumor was also denied by Li Ka-shing. He advised investors to face the current market rationally. He believes that the stock market will not be ideal until 2009, and investors should be cautious.
According to a reliable source very close to the top of CSRC, stamp duty will be adjusted to 0.05% in both directions from August 2nd (unconfirmed).
5. Suspension of IPO approval for three months (unconfirmed)
6. The National Stabilization Fund will enter the market to rescue the market (the relevant spokesperson said that the Stabilization Fund has not yet been established, and the source of funds established is temporarily uncertain, so it cannot enter the market for a long time, which is moderately bad).
7. The Political Supervision Committee organized a meeting of fund managers, and the key topic of the meeting was to save the market (but some managers at the meeting said that the meeting did not talk about saving the market, mainly about some issues of fund issuance)
In the process of the red July market, there have been numerous favorable rumors that have brought about a small rebound driven by hot money, but what about the result? It was not until the end of August that the rumored welfare came out. Therefore, cautious investors suggest to wait until the official announcement of the favorable situation before intervening in stabilizing the interest, and don't be fooled by the institutions that reduce their positions with hot money. Every time a really favorable policy comes out, the government quietly enters the village without any shouting more than a month in advance. Do you think more about whether it is good or really beneficial for the organization to create rumors to facilitate shipment?
Fundamental investors will now face bad news: although earnings per share increased slightly by 65,438+0 cents, the growth rate has slowed down significantly, and the cash flow of net profit growth has decreased by as much as 64.47%. However, the overall decline in cash flow does not mean that the cash flow of all industries has declined. For example, the cash flow of the extractive industry increased significantly in the first half of this year. This is also the dual role of the US subprime mortgage crisis and China's macro adjustment. With the deepening of macro-adjustment, there is greater pressure on the performance side to support the upward movement of the stock market. Under the situation that the peak period of non-lifting of the ban is coming, the long-term trend of the market is not optimistic.
Some institutions have reported that the current market valuation is underestimated and it has entered a reasonable investment area to encourage retail investors to buy. This is another set of retail investors. After the market crash, it just changed from overvaluation to overvaluation. The P/E ratio of emerging markets 12 times is still overvalued by 5 times, compared with 8 times in Russia, it is overvalued by 9 times. Although the P/B ratio has reached four times, there is still 1.76438+0 from the bottom of the last bear market. Since institutions are so optimistic about the "undervalued" stock market, why do they encourage retail investors to buy while resolutely selling? All stock friends calm down and think about it. Please be kind to your own funds. They are hard to get. Don't give it to the organization easily. Go with the flow. No one likes a bear market, but they must face the reality.
If the size problem that caused this bear market is really solved in time as suggested by Xinhua News Agency's comments, then there is hope after the peak of lifting the ban in 20 1 1 year, and the main shipping market is bottomless. At the bottom, the large-scale opening of positions by institutions is not to advise retail investors to be cautious and not to intervene in investors with high security requirements, but to wait and see mainly with funds.
The size of the problem that led to the plunge directly led to the imbalance of funds, and the empty side suppressed many parties for a long time. In this long-term trend, funds are occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuates and falls for a long time. This is the real reason for the continuous decline of stocks. After August, the non-lifting of the ban is the peak, and the probability of falling is greater than the probability of rising. The latest fund statistics show that the large institutional positions advocated by stock reviews have once again become a joke since July. Although the scale of lightening positions slowed down significantly in July, funds and funds. The main force of this wave of rebound has become hot money, but the characteristics of hot money are well known. Since it is a hot money sniper market, if there is still no more practical favorable situation in the market outlook, the rebound brought by this wave of favorable rumors may become the last opportunity for institutions to lighten their positions. After all, the Olympic Games is only a theme, and it will not bring any substantial improvement to the funds of the market, so the market will appear as scheduled, and so will the institutions.
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In the case that the downward trend caused by the shortage of funds has been formed, investors should remain rational and not blindly optimistic. The stock market is complicated and simple. The complexity is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market. The simple thing is that the long-term short-term trend of funds determines the long-term rise and fall of the market, but the stock market cannot just fall and not rise, and it will definitely rebound on the way down. But the scale of the rebound should be judged according to the good news of the policy. If the market is still supported by these non-material good news, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten up. Only after the immaterial restrictions on the market size come out, can the market ease the pressure on funds and bring a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem leading to the plunge is not solved, investors will regard it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. Investors' weak confidence in continuous oversold makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain-hunting funds try to change this trend, the situation is not very optimistic. The current stock market is not as lacking in confidence and funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that both lack the shadow of size. This year is the lightest year, with only 3 trillion yuan released. However, the main capital of the market has been overwhelmed (before the main capital began to ship, the main capital of the market was only 3 trillion, but the scale was not enough to eliminate it). Although the government has given a fund to talk about politics, it seems that it has little practical effect. The action of the organization to continue to rebound and ship has not stopped, so it has to choose the strategy of playing while retreating to reduce losses. Even before the Olympic Games, the government made so-called benefits to prevent the stock market from falling further. However, as long as it does not substantially solve the scale problem of non-profit organizations, it is just a number of policies that are not painful. Then, in the current market where the long-short balance of funds has been broken, even under the trend of sideways operation or a slight rebound during the Olympic Games, investors should not be too optimistic, because they should be cautious, because the substantive problems have not been solved. Money will continue to be tight. When there is a rebound caused by policies, it is wise to reduce rallies. Don't believe that stock reviews don't consider the actual big market. Since the non-lifting funds in 2009 were nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 20 10 were nearly 10 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, it is impossible to solve the pressure of funds before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complex, it is actually very simple. The rule of the stock market is that if you sell more, you will buy down, and if you buy more, you will sell up. Most people understand this truth, but why are some people unwilling to face it when the funds have already been reflected? Don't believe that size also requires long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 400% or even as high as 1000% as soon as the listing is lifted, do you think the holders of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink in a weak market (the size of the size is also an investor, and the profit first is also their idea, when long-term investors think that only retail investors with institutional education will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest support area of the market is 3300~3400 points, and the so-called policy iron bottom with the strongest stock evaluation and institutions is 2990 points, it has collapsed rapidly in the case of unbalanced funds. Therefore, the short-term rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions without the support of new favorable policies. Of course, if the marginal favorable policy brings bargain-hunting funds, it is of course best to bring about a relatively large rebound, which is a rare opportunity for retail investors. Strictly controlling positions is the only thing I want to say now. Every rebound and lightening positions are rigorous. Only when you have money in your hand can you have the initiative and you can usher in the real bottom. The bottom is the main force, not the retail investors. When the main force is forced to lighten up their positions under the pressure of non-size, what small and medium-sized investors can do is to follow the trend, rather than move against the trend. We should also control our positions when the institutions lighten up their positions.
Now, you should follow the trend, don't be a dead cow, don't be a dead bear, just be a prick. Before the market has no choice of direction, strictly controlling your position will minimize your risk.
The above is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully.