Today, the three major stock indexes collectively opened higher. At the beginning of the session, the Shanghai Composite Index and the Shenzhen Component Index both rose. The former broke through 3,2 points, while the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell sideways. Near 1 o'clock, the market experienced a wave of decline, and then it rose again, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose simultaneously.

At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 4.24% to 3,286.6 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.29% to 12,842.3 points, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose 2.21% to 2,516.87 points. The turnover of the two cities was nearly 95 billion yuan, and the net inflow of northbound funds exceeded 15 billion yuan. Brokerage trust, insurance, aerospace, diversified finance and coal mining were among the top gainers.

if the bull market is expected to come, why buy a brokerage?

Because brokers are the strongest variety in the bull market and the best among the cattle, there are three reasons:

(1) During the bull market, the trading volume will increase exponentially, including the old account transactions become active and the funds newly opened for admission, which can bring the brokerage business a double increase in commission income. However, in this process, the cost of brokers will not increase exponentially, but will only increase slightly, which can bring a higher increase in net profit to brokers.

(2) In the bull market, the self-operated stock assets of brokers will also get good returns and continue to improve the profits of brokers.

(3) The performance of securities firms in the bull market has increased substantially, which is highly certain, which will be fully expected by the market in the early stage of the bull market. Therefore, the valuation of securities firms will increase substantially in the early stage of the bull market, which has never driven the stock price to rise sharply, and then the subsequent performance will be cashed, and the stock price will rise greatly in a short period of time.

There are two famous large-scale bull markets in history. Let's talk about them separately. Through the resumption of trading,

First, the bull market in 27

From June 1, 25 to October 19, 27, the index rose from 998 points to 6124, with 513% room for growth. Let's first review

The first stage: small-cap stocks came first. In the early stage of the bull market, small-cap stocks rose first, represented by Tianwei, suning universal and other real estate and information service sectors. The history is about 6 months

The second stage: 3 colored riots, 3 leading stocks are CITIC Securities and Chihong, and the zinc and germanium index also rose by 51.1% from 1163 to 1757, among which the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose by 87% and the small and medium-sized board by 5%. The third stage: 28 differentiation, and finance and real estate became the leading stocks

. The index rose by about 48.5% from 28 to 341 < P > The fifth stage: the market went crazy, and the index rose by 45 degrees, almost directly completing the dish washing and pulling up in intraday trading, skyrocketing in all aspects, and the P/E ratio was invalid. Individual stocks rose by an average of 6%, while blue-chip stocks in the market were relatively weak, with real estate, public utilities, textiles and clothing leading the way. Theme stocks occupy the mainstream. The number of newly opened accounts in the two cities has soared, and retail investors have become the main force in the market. The market ended at 53 midnight when the cock crowed.

The index ranged from 2734 to 4335. The increase was 58.6%. The history lasted for more than three months. The sixth stage: the elephant danced solo. After 53, the super 28 market was staged. Weighted elephants dance solo, fund-led index stocks launch blue-chip bubble market, A-share P/E ratio exceeds 6 times, nonferrous metals, finance and steel have become the leading sectors to fall by as much as 4%, and only about 1 stocks with an increase of more than 1% have staged the final crazy market, with an increase of about 8% from 344 to 6124. In the past five months, A-shares have experienced a sharp rise in small and medium-sized stocks led by the Growth Enterprise Market in 213, and in the previous period, they experienced a solo rise in weights in 214, especially in the elephants of 3 merchants, banks and insurance companies < P > Second, the bull market in 215

1. At the beginning of the market launch, they all held pessimistic views on economic expectations, adopted overall allocation strategies, and tended to gather around for warmth. In the first three months, there was a general upward trend, with military industry, machinery and automobiles leading the gains, banks at the bottom, and all industries increasing, with no obvious difference.

2. After October of 14, the bull market was formally established and entered an accelerated stage. After three months, the industry was divided. During this period, non-bank finance and banking always maintained the leading growth, achieving excess returns, while other industries, such as electronics and medical biology, all underperformed the index, and also showed negative returns. Weak stocks make up, strong stocks make up, that is, the first round rose well, but the second round was worse.

after March and February of 15 years, it entered the middle period of bull market, and the industry differentiation disappeared and returned to the general growth pattern. During this period, the media, building decoration and computers led the gains, achieving excess returns. The gains of other industries were relatively average on the whole, but banks and non-bank finance were at the bottom. During this period, the performance of the industry was similar to that of the previous wave, and all of them abandoned the high and went low. Through these changes, the enlightenment to us was that every time they rebounded, the leading sectors were different. At that time, they rose more and the next round rose less.

after April and May of 15, the final sprint was ushered in, and the overall performance of the industry was similar to the general trend. During the period, defense, military industry, computers, communications, etc., high-elasticity varieties led the gains, others followed the rebound, and banks and non-bank finance were at the bottom. In terms of industry rotation, it was similar to previous rounds.

to sum up, it can be seen that the brokerage sector plays a role in fueling the bull market. Generally, the second wave begins to break out and ignite the whole market. In this round of market, A shares first stepped out of a structural upward channel. After the index broke through 3, points, the brokerage sector started, and the increase expanded rapidly, leading the two cities. If we follow the previous two bull markets, this is the second stage of the bull market, and the third stage is the general market, and the industry differentiation will gradually disappear, and the general market will begin. Taking history as a mirror, we can see the universal law of bull market. At present, the market turnover has greatly increased. After the end of the structural bull market, the brokerage sector broke out in an all-round way, and the signs of the market bull market became more and more obvious.

Guangdong Development Securities believes that in terms of allocation, we can focus on the following four main lines:

(1) The technology stocks are booming, focusing on consumer electronics, 5G and other related investment fields;

(2) Benefiting from the expectation of reform and the recovery of market sentiment, we are optimistic about the rising space of brokerage stocks;

(3) consumption blue chips such as medicine, biology, food and beverage, and household appliances;

(4) Reform of state-owned enterprises and improvement of future orders for infrastructure, paying attention to blue-chip stocks with Chinese prefix.