629 Long-term trend analysis and short-term technical index analysis of China Southern Airlines:

1. Fundamental situation of China Southern Airlines listed companies (long-term trend analysis):

1. Company introduction: China Southern Airlines is one of the three major aviation groups in China. It has formed a route network with Guangzhou and Beijing as the central hubs, covering China intensively, radiating Asia and connecting Europe, America and Australia. In 27, the passenger traffic volume of China Southern Airlines reached 81.73 billion passenger kilometers, while that of Air China reached 7.3 billion passenger kilometers. In 27, China Southern Airlines ranked the fourth in the world and the first in Asia. At the same time, it joined SkyTeam in 27, becoming the first mainland airline in China to join the international aviation alliance.

2. Latest financial data indicators: (8-9-3)

Earnings per share (RMB) .4, net assets per share (RMB) 1.87, return on net assets (%) .23, total share capital (RMB 1 million) 6.56127, and A shares actually in circulation (RMB 1 million). Capital reserve per share: .588 Main income (ten thousand yuan): 4,24,6., up .8% year-on-year, undistributed profit per share: .187, net profit (ten thousand yuan): 2,8., down-98.72% year-on-year;

3. Beneficial information of China Southern Airlines:

(1) National policies are favorable to boost the development of China Southern Airlines, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Implementing the Reform of refined oil prices and taxes and fees on December 18th. Since : on December 19th, 28, the ex-factory price of aviation kerosene has been adjusted from 7 45 yuan per ton to 5,5 yuan, with a decrease of 2 4 yuan per ton, with an adjustment range of 32%. At the same time, on the afternoon of December 19th, since December 25th, 28, the additional fuel standards for passenger transportation on domestic routes have been lowered accordingly. Among them, the routes over 8km (inclusive) will be reduced from 15 yuan to 4 yuan per passenger, and the routes under 8km will be reduced from 8 yuan to 2 yuan.

(2) The company has other competitive and hedging advantages

1. Compared with Air China and China Eastern Airlines (6115.SS, Rmb4.63, unrated), the company ended its aviation oil hedging in September 28, and the international oil price has been declining since then, hitting a new low of $33/barrel since 24 on December 19th. Air China and China Eastern Airlines suffered heavy losses, and their losses on trading financial assets will reach 5 billion and 3.7 billion respectively this year.

2. The upward trend of RMB since the exchange rate reform stagnated in the second half of 28, and the domestic export level dropped by 19% in November. In order to stimulate domestic exports, the growth rate of RMB against the US dollar may be only 1%-2% in 29, and it may also depreciate. For airlines, exchange gains will be reduced in 29, and even exchange losses will occur.

At present, China Southern Airlines has adjusted its US dollar debt ratio in a timely manner, which has been reduced to about 7%, compared with 96% in 27. The continuous downward adjustment of domestic interest will also reduce the company's interest expenses.

(3) Good policy information

China Southern Airlines Group, the controlling shareholder, accepted the state's capital injection of 3 billion yuan. China Southern Airlines announced on October 26 that China Southern Airlines Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, recently received the Notice of the Ministry of Finance on Issuing the Central State-owned Capital Operating Budget (Appropriation) of China Southern Airlines Group Company in 28 (document No.316 [28] of the Ministry of Finance). According to this notice, The Ministry of Finance has given China Southern Airlines a central state-owned capital operation budget of 3 billion yuan in 28, which is treated as increasing the state capital of China Southern Airlines. The board of directors of China Southern Airlines has asked China Southern Airlines' executive director and controlling shareholder about this matter. At present, China Southern Airlines is considering injecting this fund into the company, and China Southern Airlines itself is also planning a non-public offering of shares.

(4) Investment risk

At present, the biggest investment risk of the company lies in the utilization of aircraft next year. Although the available capacity of the company has further increased after the new aircraft is put into operation, in the face of the current market environment, the increase in RPK driven by a 1% increase in ASK is an important uncertain factor. At the same time, when and how strong the international oil price rebounds is another key factor affecting the company's future development.

(5) Company evaluation and investment suggestions

As the price adjustment of aviation kerosene exceeds market expectations, the state has played a decisive role in promoting the recovery of aviation industry. As the first airline to receive state capital injection and the highest domestic aviation market share, its future performance is worth looking forward to. We upgraded the company's EPS. In 28 -1, the original EPS was -.5 yuan, -.23 yuan and . yuan. 9 yuan was upgraded to -.5 yuan, .3 yuan and .43 yuan. After the internal private placement in 29, the company's net assets per share reached 2.44 yuan, giving the company 1.8 times of PB. In 29, the target price was 4.3 yuan, with an implied upside of 15.3%, and the first rating was "overweight".

second, the short-term technical index analysis of China Southern Airlines stock (short-term technical index analysis):

From the current K-line shape and other technical indicators of 65 China Unicom, the short-term situation is not good. As of today, the stock has fallen below all the moving averages of MA, but the stock price is supported by the 1-day moving average, and the stock price is drifting with the trend. The J-line of the random KDJ indicator is already -8.1.

However, the situation of the VOL indicator and MACD indicator on the disk is not very bad. From the disk, the trend indicator of MACD will basically slide below the zero axis, and there are signs of gradual weakening. At present, the MACD indicator is -.1, which has entered the weak area, but the DIF and DEA that make up the indicator form a downward divergent shape with the J line, and the market outlook is basically a downward trend and weak consolidation.

from VOL, we can see that today's trading volume has shrunk a lot year-on-year. Compared with the circulating market, the stock has made three obvious upswing actions after the opening in the afternoon, and the effect is obvious. Moreover, the stock price has also broken through the suppression of the 1-day moving average, and the attack power has been strengthened in the last half hour. The intention of the main force of the stock to attack is obvious, but the sales volume of the top five stalls is also relatively large, indicating that there is still a fight between the long and short sides.

it should be noted that: in combination with the K-line graph on the disk, the three technical indicators of short-term and trend KDJ/MA/MACD, and the volume index of VOL, the stock price of this stock is between the downtrend and the weak sideways, so the trend depends entirely on the trend of the broader market, and the broader market will rise if it is good, and fall if it is not;

conclusion of analysis and judgment:

judging from the situation of the Shanghai stock market today, it is difficult to make a difference in the short term. In view of many differences and great uncertainties in the restructuring of the stock, and the operating performance of the listed company has declined sharply this year, and the aviation industry will not perform well under the financial crisis, China Southern Airlines is not the best variety in terms of short-term and medium-long-term investment, so it is advisable to keep an eye on it.