Since ZTE's sharp decline on August 11, 2021, it also fell on heavy volume on the 30th, with a drop of 4.71%.

It is clear that some funds are making position adjustments for liquidation needs - this conclusion has been described in detail in the article on August 13.

Now let’s take a further in-depth analysis from the macro and financial aspects of the industry: From 2019 to July 2020, 5G infrastructure, chips, and technology were subject to a wave of speculation. At that time, the speculation was more about two-year expectations and imagination.

However, starting from July 2020, many big technologies such as 5G and chips began to fall back from high levels and began to diverge.

First of all, in recent years, the thinking of institutions has been quite clear. Regardless of growth investment, value investment, or value growth, there is one theme, which is industry concentration.

Therefore, it is undeniable: ZTE is still the leader in the communications and technology industry with high prosperity. Its performance continues to grow steadily and the benefits are constant, but why can't it continue to drive up the stock price?

1. 5G has been commercialized for nearly two years. The base station has exceeded expectations. The dividends of communication policies have gradually faded. The space for imagination has also receded. The remaining funds and subsequent new funds will have to go through the market to fully change hands and gradually bottom out.

Will add positions or rearrange positions.

2. Policy orientation affects the flow of funds: outflow funds and incremental funds are more inclined to the manufacturing of new energy, innovative drugs, pharmaceutical consumption, military industry and other industrial chains.

3. The divergence of big funds is too large, and the short-term institutional game is relatively large.

For example, looking at the Q2 fund holdings in the communications sector, ZTE is the most popular and has the largest increase in market value.

Including the social security fund combination 112, it is also among the top ten shareholders, with a market value of 1.306 billion, a number of 39.2872 million shares, and an average price of 33.24 yuan/share.

Don’t expect social security funds to make long-term growth value investments, because pension funds are related to people’s livelihood.

You can't compare it with funds. Funds pay attention to the ranking at the end of each year, while social security only pays attention to the rate of return.

Therefore, it is very possible for the social security fund to lurk and ship out in one quarter. You can look at the data of the social security funds of ZTE’s top ten shareholders in history, and you will find that there will be one every three or four quarters.

The social security fund has an average annual return rate of 8.51% since its establishment, and the social security fund return rate in 2020 reached 15.84%.

If calculated based on the 2020 yield rate of 15.84%, which is 38.5 yuan/share, all shipments are normal.

According to ZTE's various cooperation information and confirmed orders in the first and second quarters, its performance in the second and third quarters is absolutely outstanding.

The foresighted funds lurked in batches before strong short-term performance expectations, and then met the demand for liquidation in the third quarter.

The time-sharing chart on August 30 indeed shows that institutions are shipping. Around 2 p.m. that day, buy one orders increased from 10,400 lots to 10,800 lots to 11,200 lots (buy one became buy two or buy three).

, suddenly the main force shipped directly at 2:27.

In an instant, more than half of the orders of 32.52 yuan, 32.51 yuan, and 32.50 yuan to buy one, two, and three disappeared (I happened to witness the moment of shipment at that time).

ZTE’s market outlook (brief summary): The hype for new infrastructure has subsided, and New Communications has taken over.

The application side of 5G + smart Internet is the new hype expectation and space.

At present, ZTE's 5G applications are mainly home terminal products and mobile phone products; software and chips in smart cars and the Internet.

Secondly, changes in the market supply and demand pattern, from new infrastructure to 5G applications, the market is in the "introduction period", demand is still expanding rapidly, and the next two years are still promising.

When funds are integrated into a sector, the underlying logic is the continued growth of performance; the supply and demand relationship in the market directly determines the allocation of fund positions.

Technical aspect: The 5, 10, 20, and 60-day moving averages have all broken.

The medium-term cost moving average has also broken through and has touched the long-term cost moving average.

The long-term capital cost moving average is the average cost of the main force in the past six months.

If it falls below again, the institution will be injured, and half of the institutions may have to reshuffle and switch.

Don’t be too obsessed with pure technical analysis, and don’t always use certain indicators and tools to predict the room for growth (indicators are all reference values ????based on historical data). To be honest, the rise and fall trend in the next one or two days or one week can really be predicted.

Not coming out.

The supply and demand pattern of 5G applications is here, and the market sentiment will not lose confidence in its future development just because of fluctuations in the short few months.

Summary 1: There is a short-term outflow of funds, which does not mean that all institutions have outflowed funds.

To ship goods, there must be rival orders. If all institutions rush to ship goods first, it will cause a stampede and institutions will be injured/trapped. Don’t expect retail investors to take over billions of orders. Retail investors often run faster than institutions.

Secondly: There must be space for institutions to collect chips and ship goods.