Text | Kaifeng Who is the biggest contributor to the central pension adjustment?

Recently, the Ministry of Finance released the 2020 central adjustment fund annual budget. The central adjustment fund is expected to reach 739.823 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 109.523 billion yuan from last year's implementation, an increase of 17.4%.

The central pension adjustment system was born in 2018, and pensions have since entered the era of national coordination.

Each province uniformly pays a certain proportion of pensions, and these pensions are then transferred to various localities through allocations.

There are provinces with net contributions, and there are provinces with net benefits. Who supports half of the pension fund?

01 This is the central adjustment of pensions in various provinces and cities (including the Corps) in mainland China in 2020: Which provinces made net contributions?

Which provinces will benefit most?

From the central adjustment of pensions, only 7 provinces made net contributions, 22 provinces (including the XPCC) benefited from the net benefits, and 3 provinces' contributions and transfers remained unchanged.

Among them, 7 provinces including Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian, and Shandong are "net contributors", contributing 176.7 billion yuan in one year.

Guangdong alone contributed more than one-third, and Guangdong and Beijing contributed more than 60% in total, becoming the largest "breadbasket" for central pension transfers.

On the contrary, 22 regions (including XPCC) including Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Shanxi, Jiangxi, and Hebei are “net beneficiary” provinces.

Among these provinces, Northeast China and Hubei are the biggest beneficiaries.

Among them, Liaoning net benefited 55.558 billion yuan, Heilongjiang 48.556 billion yuan, Hubei 18.687 billion yuan, and Jilin 14.519 billion yuan. These four provinces accounted for more than 3/4 of the total benefits, and Liaoning and Heilongjiang provinces alone accounted for nearly 60%.

The aging rate of the three northeastern provinces is too high, and pension funds in some provinces have already been unable to cover their expenditures. The pension issue has attracted much attention, and they have been among the provinces that have benefited most for two consecutive years.

The situation in Hubei is somewhat special.

The scale of Hubei's adjustments this year has increased by 55% compared with last year. This is due to the impact of the epidemic.

Hubei is facing greater pressure on both social security and finance. It is undoubtedly necessary and urgent to increase the scale of pension transfer payments.

In addition, the three provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Tibet have the same balance of payments and transfers, and their balance of payments is balanced.

02 One side is sea water, the other side is fire.

The emergence of central pension adjustment means that pensions are greatly differentiated among different provinces, and some provinces have already been unable to cover their pension expenses.

For the whole year of 2019, the urban employees' basic pension insurance fund revenue was 5,291.9 billion yuan, and fund expenditures were 4,922.8 billion yuan. The cumulative balance of the urban employees' basic pension insurance fund at the end of the year was 5,462.3 billion yuan.

Although nationally speaking, pension income for the year can still cover expenditures, plus past historical balances, there is still a total of more than 5 trillion.

However, of the total of more than 5 trillion yuan, Guangdong alone accounts for about 1 trillion yuan, while Heilongjiang has been unable to make ends meet for many years in a row, and the cumulative balance of pension funds is already negative.

This can be measured by the number of months the pension can be paid, which measures the historical balance of the pension in each province and the total number of months that can be used for payment: the more months the pension can be paid, the more abundant the pension.

The lower the number of payable months, the tighter the pension.

According to Zeping macro data, the country’s cumulative pension balance at the end of 2018 could support 14.7 months of expenditures.

This means that if the annual pension income and expenditure are balanced, the historical pension balance can still be paid for 52 months in Guangdong, and less than half a year in Liaoning, Qinghai, Hubei and other places, and Heilongjiang not only

All surpluses have long been exhausted and must rely on subsidies and transfers.