Summary: Despite the global economic weakness, the United States has maintained economic growth for the ninth consecutive year after experiencing the economic recession of 1990- 199 1. Strong economic growth coexists with low inflation, low unemployment rate and low fiscal deficit. Apart from the favorable international environment, the main reason why the American economy can expand for a long time is that the United States has implemented appropriate policies since the 1990s. Analyzing the contents and characteristics of American fiscal and monetary policies in 1990s is of great significance for perfecting China's macro-control.
Keywords: United States; Fiscal policy; monetary policy
The American economy has maintained steady and sustained development since it stepped out of recession in March 199 1, and has been growing continuously for more than 1 00 months. In the 1990s, the American economy grew steadily at an average annual rate of 3%, with no signs of slowing down. In this economic expansion, the American economy has shown a good running trend of "one high and three low" which is rare in recent decades. The main signs are:
(1) The economy continued to grow. During the period of 1992- 1998, the annual growth rate of American gross national product was 2.6%, 2.7%, 3.5%, 2.0%, 2.8%, 3.7% and 3.9% respectively, and the economic growth rate was always 2.5%-4.0% in the seven-year continuous period.
(2) The unemployment rate has dropped sharply. Since 1992, the unemployment rate in the United States has been declining. From 1992 to 1996, the unemployment rate was 7.4%, 6L9%, 6.0% and 5.4%, respectively, and from 1997, it dropped to 4.8%, and now it is only 4.3% for 30 years.
(3) Inflation continues to fall. 199 1 to1March 1995, the inflation rate expressed by the increase in consumer prices was 1 1.9%, with an average annual rate of 2.98%, and 1996 was 2.6%,/kloc.
(4) The fiscal deficit is decreasing year by year. From 65438 to 0992, the fiscal deficit of the United States was $29 billion, and then it was cut on a large scale. The federal deficits of 1993- 1997 are $254.7 billion, $203 1 billion,163.9 billion, 1073 billion and $22 billion respectively. 1998, the United States federal budget showed a surplus for the first time in decades. In addition to the favorable international environment, the main reason why the American economy has achieved such success is that the Clinton administration has implemented a more reasonable fiscal policy and a correct monetary policy.
First, the content and characteristics of American fiscal and monetary policy in the 1990s
fiscal policy
After Reagan came to power in the 1980s, he formulated a fiscal policy based on the supply-side theory, which greatly followed the tax and simplified the tax collection system. Reagan's tax cuts quadrupled the US fiscal deficit and became a "cancer" of the US economy. Therefore, after 1993 Clinton took office, in view of the sequelae left by the Reagan administration's light fiscal policy and heavy monetary policy, he put forward a "plan to revitalize the American economy" with the central content of reducing the fiscal deficit, and implemented a structural fiscal policy characterized by increasing economic growth potential and weakening unproductive expenditures. The specific contents include:
1. Reduce unproductive expenditure and defense expenditure to tighten expenditure. 1992 fiscal year, the US federal government's fiscal deficit was as high as $290.4 billion. In order to solve the deficit problem, the Clinton administration implemented a fiscal policy of cutting fiscal expenditure to reduce the deficit. In order to tighten spending, the United States reduced 300,000 federal workers and cut defense funds. Relevant statistics show that before 199 1, the defense expenditure of the US federal government accounted for more than 25% of the fiscal budget of that year, while in the fiscal budget of 1999, the defense expenditure only accounted for 14.6%.
2。 Increase investment in infrastructure, education and technology to promote economic transformation. While reducing financial expenditure, the government has increased investment in transportation and communication infrastructure, creating a good investment environment for private capital investment. The government has also increased investment in education and technology. In recent years, the American government has increased its investment in education through a series of channels, such as providing seed funds for the reform of education evaluation system, urging state governments to increase investment in education, providing guarantees for student loans, and strengthening personnel training and staff training. At the same time, the government has put improving the scientific and technological competitiveness of the United States on the government's agenda, and has taken a series of measures, such as increasing research and development funds, to strengthen investment in science and technology.
3. Implement tax reform, relax restrictions, increase fiscal revenue and promote high-tech development. The specific measures are: the government set up a special investment tax credit fund to financially support enterprises to carry out technological transformation, encourage enterprises to invest in building new factories that can participate in international competition and buy efficient machinery and equipment, and encourage enterprises to invest in innovative technology companies; The government has continuously extended the implementation period of the Scientific Research Tax Credit Law to support enterprises in the information, communication and electronics industries to carry out long-term research plans. At the same time, the government has also implemented a tax increase policy to increase fiscal revenue. The tax increase projects include: increasing the personal income tax of those whose annual income exceeds $6.5438+$8,000 from 30% to 36%; Levy an additional tax of 10% on the rich whose annual income exceeds $250,000, and raise the highest corporate tax rate from 34% to 36%; Raise the energy tax in an all-round way; Increase the social insurance welfare tax for the wealthy elderly.
However, it will reduce taxes for the middle class and low-income people, and reduce the capital gains tax by 50% for long-term investment in small enterprises. The fiscal policy linked to increase and decrease reduced the US fiscal deficit from $290.4 billion in192 to $37 billion in196 and $22 billion in197, and the US federal budget turned losses into profits in198. The reduction of fiscal deficit has increased the supply of funds in the market, promoted the decline of long-term interest rates and kept them at a low level, thus stimulating the expansion of enterprise investment and production. At the same time, the government's financial support and tax incentives for high-tech industries have played a great role in promoting the development of high-tech industries, promoting the upgrading of American industrial structure, improving labor productivity, driving the sustained growth of the American economy, and keeping the American economy in a leading position in developed countries.
monetary policy
Since 1990s, the Federal Reserve has always regarded full employment, stable prices and moderate long-term interest rates as the ultimate goals of its monetary policy. Neutral "stable and consistent monetary and financial policies, and timely fine-tuning, so that the US economy successfully achieved a soft landing in 1994. The content and characteristics of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy mainly include two aspects:
1. A low interest rate policy that resolutely stops inflation.
In the 1990s, the Federal Reserve adhered to the policy of putting prevention first, preferring to slow down economic growth and prevent inflation from getting out of control. To this end, the Federal Reserve actively and appropriately uses monetary leverage to adjust interest rates at any time according to changes in economic growth and inflation rate, so as to keep interest rates at a low level. Whenever the economy shows signs of overheating, the Fed will take resolute measures to tighten monetary policy without hesitation. During the period of 1994, the Federal Reserve took precautions against the situation that the US economy recovered strongly against the Soviet Union. In the year after 1994, the commercial interest rate was raised seven times in a row, making the federal funds rate and discount rate in the United States reach 6% and 5.25% respectively. When the economic growth rate of 1995 was slightly lower, the Federal Reserve reduced the discount string to control the reduction of money supply. 1999 in the first quarter, the American economy showed signs of overheating. In order to slow down economic growth and reduce the risk of rising inflation, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates twice in a row. At present, the federal funds rate in the United States is 5.25% and the discount rate is 4.75%. Although the federal funds rate in the United States is adjusted from time to time, the adjustment range is not large, ranging from 0.25% to 0.5%. The overall level is not high, and it has been maintained at 5.5%. According to the economic situation, the Federal Reserve adjusted the interest rate in a timely manner and kept the interest rate at a low level, which played a fundamental role in curbing the overheating of the economy and the deterioration of inflation.
2. Use open market business to adjust interest rates.
For a long time, American monetary authorities have always regarded adjusting interest rates as the main goal of monetary policy to meet the needs of its economic expansion. After the 1980s, the situation changed obviously. Based on the supply-side theory, the Reagan administration not only attached great importance to the role of monetary policy and greatly improved its status, but also changed its direction greatly, that is, from adjusting interest rates to adjusting money supply. After entering the 1990s, due to the great changes in the speed of money circulation, although money can hardly guide the price stability, in view of this, the monetary authorities in the United States have adjusted the control objectives and implementation tools of their monetary policy, from controlling the total amount of money to mainly controlling the profit rate.
Accordingly, the tools used by the Federal Reserve to achieve its monetary policy objectives have also changed, from directly regulating the money supply to influencing the interest rate of the federal funds through open market operations, thus affecting the interest rate of the entire capital market, thus providing a relatively stable financial environment for the healthy development of the economy. The key to the success of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is to implement a stable, sustained and neutral monetary policy and make fine adjustments in time. Fine-tuning the interest rate in time and keeping it at a low level not only avoids the excessive impact of large interest rate fluctuations on the economy, but also helps to expand private investment and promote economic growth. At the same time, the stability of economic policy makes enterprises have confidence in the macroeconomic environment, reduce short-term investment behavior, and pay more attention to formulating and implementing long-term development strategies, thus promoting the sustained and healthy development of the American economy.
Second, the reference significance to China
The main policies and measures adopted by the American government and monetary authorities in fiscal and monetary policies are of reference significance for perfecting China's macro-control policies and means and ensuring sustained and stable economic growth. It is embodied in the following aspects;
(1) Strengthening the Government's Regulation Function It is found that under the condition of market economy, the government should still strengthen its regulation function, but the government's macro-intervention policy must be scientific.
First of all, the government's fiscal and monetary policies should not only focus on the simple balance of the total amount, but also pay attention to structural adjustment while considering the balance of the total amount, so as to keep the economic structure reasonable and optimized.
Secondly, the economic policies and measures formulated and implemented by the government should not be aimed at a certain enterprise or a specific business behavior, but should be aimed at the whole industry.
Finally, government supervision should not interfere with the market, but should create the market and encourage enterprises to compete. Scientific policies and measures can make an enterprise's economic activities conform to the direction of social development and promote the virtuous circle of the whole national economy. The sustained growth of the American economy in the past nine years is directly related to the timely and moderate fiscal and monetary policies of the American government. At present, China's economic system is changing from non-market to market, and it is established to use market mechanism to allocate social resources, but the government's scientific regulation of macro-economy cannot be abandoned or weakened. We must deepen the reform of fiscal, financial and planning systems, improve macro-control means and coordination mechanism, strengthen the correct macro-control of the government, and ensure the stable and healthy operation of the macro-economy.
(2) Expanding the use of indirect financial control means The ultimate goal of China's macro-monetary policy is to maintain currency stability and promote economic growth, which correspondingly requires the establishment and improvement of the macro-control system of the central bank. However, at present, the central bank's monetary policy tools are still mainly direct means, lacking indirect control means. At present, the monetary policy means implemented in China mainly include traditional means such as deposit reserve ratio, rediscount interest rate, open market business and loan amount, among which deposit reserve ratio, rediscount interest rate and open market business are indirect control means and loan amount is direct control means. The deposit reserve ratio and rediscount rate were used in China at 1984 and 1986 respectively, and the open market business was officially launched at 1996. However, compared with developed countries such as the United States, the foundation of China's open market business is still very weak, and the effectiveness of open market business is restricted. The loan limit is a long-term policy tool in China. Due to the underdeveloped financial market and imperfect transmission mechanism in China, the basic means of financial regulation in China is still loan limit. However, with the deepening of credit relationship and the diversification of financing forms, the financial regulation mode characterized by direct control can no longer guarantee the realization of monetary policy objectives.
Therefore, we should learn from American monetary policy and expand the open market business, which is of great significance to the transformation of China's financial supervision from direct control to indirect control.
(3) Strengthen the role of tax policy in macro-control. Tax policy is the oldest economic policy produced at the same time as the state. As an important part of fiscal policy, tax policy is not only related to the total tax control, but also plays a role in structural adjustment in tax composition, tax items and tax rates. Successive American governments have attached great importance to the use of tax policies, and every year the federal budget tries to influence the economy by increasing or reducing taxes. However, it seems that China seldom uses tax policy to adjust its economy, and China's fiscal policy has always focused on the adjustment of fiscal revenue and expenditure policy. Of course, China has also implemented special tax policies in some areas, such as tax reduction and exemption for foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises in poor border areas, consumption tax on a few commodities such as tobacco and alcohol, and tax refund for export commodities. However, the whole department is aimed at microeconomics and has no substantial impact on the macro environment.
The reason why China seldom uses tax policy is that the current tax structure in China is different from that in the United States. At present, China implements a tax structure with turnover tax and income tax as the two main bodies. Among the total taxpayers in China, turnover tax accounts for more than 50% and income tax accounts for 30%. However, developed countries such as the United States implement a tax structure with income tax as the main body. The income tax of these countries generally accounts for about 50% of their total tax revenue. Because of the characteristics of turnover tax and income tax, their ability to adjust the economy is different. Adjustment of turnover tax. Direct impact on commodity prices has only an indirect effect on the economy, and the effect is slow, while the change of income tax has a direct and rapid impact on taxpayers' income, thus affecting consumption, investment and storage, and directly regulating the macro-economy. Because the ability of turnover tax to adjust the economy is far less than income tax, it is difficult for China to adjust the economy with tax policy like the United States. However, tax policy plays a great role in economy, such as adjusting income distribution, stabilizing economy and optimizing resource allocation.
Therefore, it is necessary to further optimize China's tax structure and strengthen the regulatory role of tax policy on the economy.
(4) Pay attention to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy.
The coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is an indispensable tool to adjust the total supply and demand and structure of society under the condition of market economy. Although both fiscal policy and monetary policy can adjust the total supply and demand and structure, they have their own advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of fiscal policy lies in adjusting the economic structure, but it has limitations in adjusting the total supply and demand. The advantage of commodity monetary policy lies in adjusting the economic aggregate, but it has limitations in adjusting the economic structure.
Therefore, it is required that fiscal policy and monetary policy must be coordinated, learn from each other's strong points, and work together on the macro-economy, otherwise the peak target will not be reached. In this regard, the United States has done a better job. In order to ensure stable and sustained economic growth, the United States will implement both fiscal and monetary policies. From the perspective of fiscal policy adjustment, the U.S. government supports the adjustment of industrial structure and the development of high-tech industries by using necessary tax policies and financial investment policies. From the perspective of monetary policy adjustment, the Federal Reserve controls the money supply by adjusting the federal funds interest rate and rediscount interest rate, and opening up the market business, thus effectively controlling the total social desire and achieving the goal of stabilizing the currency and prices. On the contrary, China did not pay enough attention to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. For example, since 1996, in order to expand domestic demand and stimulate the economy, the central bank has implemented an expansionary monetary policy, but judging from the implementation effect of the monetary policy, the effect is not great.
One of the reasons is that monetary policy and fiscal policy are not well coordinated. The insufficient demand in China is essentially a structural problem, and although monetary policy can adjust the total social demand, it seems powerless to adjust the internal structure of the total social demand. On the contrary, fiscal policy has advantages in structural adjustment. The government can directly affect the after-tax profits of various industrial departments through hard collection of different departments and industries, and then affect industrial development; It is also possible to change the investment demand and consumption demand formed in the initial distribution relationship and their internal structure through financial investment. Due to the single use of monetary policy, there is no corresponding fiscal policy to cooperate with it, thus failing to achieve the expected goal.
Therefore, in the future macro-control, we should pay attention to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy, foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, speed up the adjustment and rationalization of social supply and demand structure on the premise of realizing the total balance of social supply and demand, and make every effort to promote the coordinated and stable development of social economy as a whole. Ensure the realization of monetary policy objectives. Therefore, we should learn from American monetary policy and expand the open market business, which is of great significance to the transformation of China's financial supervision from direct control to indirect control.
(3) Strengthen the role of tax policy in macro-control. Tax policy is the oldest economic policy produced at the same time as the state. As an important part of fiscal policy, tax policy is not only related to the total tax control, but also plays a role in structural adjustment in tax composition, tax items and tax rates. Successive American governments have attached great importance to the use of tax policies, and every year the federal budget tries to influence the economy by increasing or reducing taxes. However, it seems that China seldom uses tax policy to adjust its economy, and China's fiscal policy has always focused on the adjustment of fiscal revenue and expenditure policy.
Of course, China has also implemented special tax policies in some areas, such as tax reduction and exemption for foreign-invested enterprises and enterprises in poor border areas, consumption tax on a few commodities such as tobacco and alcohol, and tax refund for export commodities. However, the whole department is aimed at microeconomics and has no substantial impact on the macro environment. The reason why China seldom uses tax policy is that the current tax structure in China is different from that in the United States. At present, China implements a tax structure with turnover tax and income tax as the two main bodies. Among the total taxpayers in China, turnover tax accounts for more than 50% and income tax accounts for 30%. However, developed countries such as the United States implement a tax structure with income tax as the main body. The income tax of these countries generally accounts for about 50% of their total tax revenue. Because of the characteristics of turnover tax and income tax, their ability to adjust the economy is different.
Adjustment of turnover tax. Direct impact on commodity prices has only an indirect effect on the economy, and the effect is slow, while the change of income tax has a direct and rapid impact on taxpayers' income, thus affecting consumption, investment and storage, and directly regulating the macro-economy. Because the ability of turnover tax to adjust the economy is far less than income tax, it is difficult for China to adjust the economy with tax policy like the United States. However, tax policy plays a great role in economy, such as adjusting income distribution, stabilizing economy and optimizing resource allocation. Therefore, it is necessary to further optimize China's tax structure and strengthen the regulatory role of tax policy on the economy.
(4) Pay attention to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy.
The coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is an indispensable tool to adjust the total supply and demand and structure of society under the condition of market economy. Although both fiscal policy and monetary policy can adjust the total supply and demand and structure, they have their own advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of fiscal policy lies in adjusting the economic structure, but it has limitations in adjusting the total supply and demand. The advantage of commodity monetary policy lies in adjusting the economic aggregate, but it has limitations in adjusting the economic structure.
Therefore, it is required that fiscal policy and monetary policy must be coordinated, learn from each other's strong points, and work together on the macro-economy, otherwise the peak target will not be reached. The United States has done a relatively good job in achieving this goal. In order to ensure stable and sustained economic growth, the United States will implement both fiscal and monetary policies. From the perspective of fiscal policy adjustment, the U.S. government supports the adjustment of industrial structure and the development of high-tech industries by using necessary tax policies and financial investment policies. From the perspective of monetary policy adjustment, the Federal Reserve controls the money supply by adjusting the federal funds interest rate and rediscount interest rate, and opening up the market business, thus effectively controlling the total social desire and achieving the goal of stabilizing the currency and prices.
On the contrary, China did not pay enough attention to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy. For example, since 1996, in order to expand domestic demand and stimulate the economy, the central bank has implemented an expansionary monetary policy, but judging from the implementation effect of the monetary policy, the effect is not great. One of the most important reasons is that monetary policy and fiscal policy are not well coordinated. The insufficient demand in China is essentially a structural problem, and although monetary policy can adjust the total social demand, it seems powerless to adjust the internal structure of the total social demand.
On the contrary, fiscal policy has advantages in structural adjustment. The government can directly affect the after-tax profits of various industrial departments through hard collection of different departments and industries, and then affect industrial development; It is also possible to change the investment demand and consumption demand formed in the initial distribution relationship and their internal structure through financial investment. Due to the single use of monetary policy, there is no corresponding fiscal policy to cooperate with it, thus failing to achieve the expected goal.
Therefore, in the future macro-control, we should pay attention to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy, foster strengths and avoid weaknesses, speed up the adjustment and rationalization of social supply and demand structure on the premise of realizing the total balance of social supply and demand, and make every effort to promote the coordinated and stable development of social economy as a whole.