Disk Observation

On Monday, the three major stock indexes opened lower and moved lower, with sharp declines during the session. The total transaction volume of the two cities was 963.7 billion yuan; the net sales volume of northbound funds was 5.762 billion yuan. Disk observation: Only the warehousing and logistics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors rose; while electrical equipment, mineral products, semiconductors and other sectors were among the top decliners. As of the close: the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 2.61% to 3167.13 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 3.67% to 11520.21 points; the ChiNext Index fell 4.20% to 2462.04 points.

Outlook

Today’s market continued the weak adjustment last week, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index falling below 3,200 points, and the Index falling below 2,500 points and setting a new adjustment low; almost all sectors in the two cities fell, with only the epidemic benefiting Prepared dishes, warehousing and logistics concepts, and the agricultural sector boosted by midday news.

In fact, the recent round of capital market adjustments is affected by both domestic and overseas factors. Domestic factors include pressure on the real estate industry, the economy entering a phase of active destocking, and epidemics in local areas. It has repeatedly caused disruptions to the economy, etc., while overseas factors include the Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertainty in the geopolitical situation, expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, and the rapid rise in U.S. bond interest rates that have not stabilized, etc. Overall, the market risk appetite is still weak, and the capital stock game has obvious characteristics (the scale of new equity funds in the first quarter of this year has shrunk significantly year-on-year, insurance private equity and other institutions are relatively limited, and the interest rate gap between China and the United States has approached an inversion for the first time since July 2010. It also led to a slowdown in foreign capital inflows, etc.).

The stabilization of the market first requires the stabilization of confidence. Although the market still faces the above challenges in the short term, it is already in a bottoming period from a medium-term perspective: Investors have strong expectations for the reversal of the real estate industry recently, and the logic lies in the economy. The pressure is high and real estate may need to be relaxed to stabilize economic growth. Real estate credit risks have also been gradually "exploited". Therefore, we can see that the recent performance of real estate chain (including infrastructure, etc.) concept stocks in the secondary market has been relatively good; although the epidemic has intensified It has increased the downward pressure on the economy, but also increased the space and motivation for subsequent monetary and credit relaxation, providing strong support for stabilizing the macroeconomic market; the Financial Committee meeting emphasized "maintaining the smooth operation of the capital market", and the National Standing Committee continued to emphasize "maintaining the stability of the capital market" " and asked to "prevent and correct the introduction of policies that are not conducive to market expectations." The determination of decision-makers to maintain confidence in the capital market is still very clear; moreover, the pricing of domestic assets is actually based on domestic fundamental factors. As the epidemic gradually improves and various After the policy is strengthened, external factors will be weakened, and the restoration of internal confidence will help stabilize market expectations.

Operational Strategy

To sum up, it is expected that the stock index will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the near future. As the stock index searches for the "market bottom", investors should wait patiently and pay attention to changes in the above situation. ; In the short term, we will still pay attention to the big infrastructure cycle under the policy background of "stabilizing growth". In the future, if the U.S. bond interest rate stabilizes, the domestic loose monetary policy strengthens, and the market bottom gradually becomes clear, we can consider gradually increasing investment in the "energy revolution and science and technology". The configuration of "Creating a Strong Country" (technology, military industry, new energy, etc.).