-Master Le Taoxuan's "Corn"
Empress Dowager Cixi and "Corn"
(History of Corn Cultivation in China)
In the 26th year of Guangxu, Eight-Nation Alliance attacked Beijing, and Empress Dowager Cixi fled with Emperor Guangxu in her arms. On that day, she spent the night in Xiguan, a suburb of Beijing. Imam Cai Wanchun of the local mosque and others hurried to prepare meals. Cixi, who hasn't been in the water for a long time, is eating hot steamed bread, which is very delicious. So he asked what it was made of, and Li replied: It was made of a stick. The queen mother listened and said, why is this delicious thing called a stick? Let's call it "imperial meal"! Since then, the stick has a new name, the decree, and over time, it has been written as "corn".
Corn is native to Latin America. 1492 After Columbus discovered the New World, he brought corn to Spain, and later it spread all over the world from Spain. Maize was introduced into China before the middle of16th century.
After maize was introduced into China, it spread from South China, Southwest China and Northwest China. Because it is a newly introduced crop, every time it is promoted in a place, the local area will give it a name, so corn has many different names. Besides rice wheat, western wheat and corn, there are other names such as Baogu, Liugu and Yao Lu. By the 1930s, corn planting had accounted for 9.6% of the total crop planting area in China, ranking fourth among grain crops, second only to rice, wheat and millet. In the 1950s, corn planting made greater progress, and the sown area far exceeded that of millet, ranking third (see the figure below).
Figure Maize Yield in China
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The history of corn futures
Corn is the earliest futures trading variety in the world, and it is also one of the most important and mature trading varieties. Corn futures originated in America. As early as 1848, in order to prevent the price risk after the autumn harvest, farmers in the central United States sold corn in advance during the spring sowing, thus forming the embryonic form of modern corn futures trading. From 65438 to 0865, corn futures became the first standardized futures contract traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). Before the mid-1970s, corn was the most traded futures contract in the world.
The History of China Corn Futures
Corn futures were listed on Changchun Stock Exchange, but due to management confusion, trading stopped at 1995. On September 22nd, 2004, corn futures re-listed in China Dalian Commodity Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Dashangsuo"), which developed rapidly, operated smoothly and played a good market function. In Jilin, Heilongjiang and other corn producing areas, many farmers refer to the corn futures price of Dashang in the process of planting and selling, and many corn trading, processing and feed enterprises also regard the corn futures price of Dashang as an important reference in their business processes.
"Gold" at 40 degrees north latitude
(Corn planting area, distribution and growth status)
Golden corn belt refers to the most suitable golden zone for corn planting and growth. China Jilin corn belt, American corn belt and Ukrainian corn belt are also called "the three golden corn belts in the world", all located near 40 north latitude.
The golden corn belt has made Jilin a major grain-producing province in China, and has profoundly affected the crop planting structure here. From the beginning, there was no large-scale planting of corn in Jilin Province. Take Changchun and its surrounding areas as an example. In the past, this area has always been the largest distribution center of soybeans in Northeast China, with a large export volume, so it was called "bean market" internationally at that time. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, corn planting in this area began to increase slowly. After 1979, the State Council adopted the proposal of developing the northeast corn belt. After decades of development, this area has become a world-famous corn producing area.
The reason why this land with Changchun Plain as the core has become a golden corn belt is that it has three unique geographical advantages: abundant precipitation with an average annual rainfall of 400-800 mm, nearly 3,000 hours of sunshine per year, and fertile black land. The quality of corn planted in the golden corn belt is excellent, with an average oil content of 0.3% higher than that in other areas and an average oil content of 0.5% higher than that in protein.
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Corn planting area in China
Spring sowing corn in the north: including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and parts of Hebei, Shaanxi and Gansu, accounting for about 40% of the national corn area and 45% of the output. The planting system is one crop a year.
Sowing area of summer corn in Huang-Huai-Hai: including the Yellow River and Huaihe River basins, as well as the middle and lower reaches of Shandong, most of Hebei, south-central Shanxi, Guanzhong and Xuhuai in Jiangsu, accounting for about 25% of the national corn planting area and 25% of the national output. The planting system is two seasons a year.
Southwest mountainous corn area: including Sichuan, Yunnan, Guizhou, southwestern Shaanxi, Guangxi, Hunan, hilly areas in western Hubei and a small part of Gansu, with corn planting area accounting for 15%. The terrain in this area is complex, and the planting system varies from one crop a year to three crops a year.
Southern hilly corn area: including Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Taiwan Province, southern Anhui, Guangxi, Hunan and eastern Hubei, it is a rice-producing area in China, and the corn planting area is relatively small, accounting for about 10% of the national planting area.
Northwest corn irrigation areas include Hexi Corridor in Xinjiang, Hetao Irrigation Areas in Gansu and Ningxia, accounting for 10% of the national sown area.
The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, including Qinghai and Tibet, has a short history of corn planting and a small area.
China Hao corn
(Introduction of Corn Varieties)
There are many varieties of corn in the market, which are mainly divided into three types according to taste: waxy corn, sweet corn and old corn. According to the color, there are white, purple and yellow, and the colors alternate with each other. Different colors of corn are due to different pigments, different varieties and different health care functions. Compared with white corn, purple corn contains anthocyanins, so it has antioxidant and anti-aging effects; Yellow corn contains carotene and zeaxanthin, which is of great benefit to maintaining eyesight. Waxy corn is generally white, sweet corn and old corn are generally yellow.
The corn we generally talk about is yellow corn, which is also a large-scale yellow corn, while high lysine corn, waxy corn, sweet corn, popcorn and high oil corn all belong to special corn.
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China Corn Futures Trading Variety (Delivery Object)
In China, yellow corn is a widely planted variety, and its annual output accounts for more than 95% of the total output. White corn is mainly used as food, yellow corn is mainly used for feed processing, and the corn futures trading variety stipulated by Dashang is yellow corn. According to the national standard GB 1353 and referring to the international standard, Dashang Institute stipulated the quality standard of corn in the standard contract. According to the regulations of Dashang, the products delivered by corn futures contracts must meet the requirements of bulk density ≥ 675g/L, impurity content ≤ 1%, moisture content ≤ 14%, total number of imperfect grains ≤8% and moldy grains ≤2%.
King of energy feed
(feed use of corn)
Corn is widely used in animal husbandry and is called the king of energy feed because it has the highest available energy. The criterion for judging energy feed is that the digestibility of dry matter per kilogram of feed is above 10 MJ, and those higher than 12.5 MJ belong to high-energy feed. The digestible energy of corn is 14.06 MJ/kg, and the highest is 15.06 MJ/kg, so the available energy of corn is the highest among cereal seeds.
In addition, corn has the characteristics of good palatability, unlimited use and low price, and many of its nutritional values are also very distinctive.
In addition, corn stalk also has certain value. Corn stalks can be silaged or fed directly. China produces about 200 billion kilograms of corn stalk every year, which is a huge potential feed source. For herbivores, especially corn stalks after silage, yellowing, ammonification and saccharification, the utilization rate can be greatly improved and the benefits are considerable.
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Current situation of corn consumption
Corn is widely used, mainly including eating, feeding and deep processing. The consumption of corn is usually stable, and it mainly comes from people's eating habits. In terms of feed consumption, corn is a good energy feed, which can be directly fed to livestock and poultry, especially suitable for pigs, beef cattle, cows and broilers. At the same time, corn is also an important industrial raw material, which can produce hundreds of products through primary processing and deep processing. China's corn processing products mainly include corn starch, starch sugar, modified starch and alcohol. In the 20 17-20 18 crop year, China's corn consumption was 220 million tons, of which the feed consumption was the largest, accounting for 64%. The consumption of industrial deep processing is about 65 million tons, accounting for about 30% of the total consumption; The rest are food, seed use, loss and others (see the figure below).
Figure China Corn Consumption
A university professor who has been buying corn for 30 years.
(seasonality of corn)
Charlie is a university professor. Recently, he became a man of the hour in the school and was worshipped by the students. The reason is that his daughter exposed his investment experience in Facebook for more than 40 years. He started with $65,438+$0,000, and actually earned tens of millions of dollars.
Charlie is a native of Chicago, and his family has 10 mu of land, growing corn and soybeans. In the late 1960s, Charlie, who was less than 20 years old, found that the corn subsidy at home was closely related to corn futures, so he began to pay attention to corn futures. After several years of observation, Charlie found a phenomenon: from April to September every year, that is, the whole growing period of corn, the focus of the corn futures market completely shifted to the natural disasters of corn. Especially in the critical growth period of corn in July and August, as long as there is a slight problem with the weather or the growth of corn, futures prices will rush to rise, and this trend is generally difficult to change before the real yield of corn is determined.
1in the early summer of 975, 25-year-old Charlie officially entered the futures market with 1000 dollars earned by working. According to his plan, he bought 65438+ corn futures due in February. At that time, corn was at the lowest point since its listing, the market sentiment was low, and farmers' willingness to plant corn was also very low. Who would have thought that in June, with the news of continuous high temperature in some parts of the central and western regions, corn futures prices began to rise. Charlie's further investigation found that this continuous high temperature weather is spreading in the corn planting belt in the midwest of the United States; He also learned from friends who work in the Meteorological Bureau that there is a high probability of continuous high temperature in the central and western regions throughout July. He judged that the market's expectation that high temperature would lead to a sharp reduction in corn production would become stronger and stronger, so he increased his position in corn futures. Finally, although there was no serious drought, the continuous dry and hot weather pushed the Chicago corn futures price from 240 cents/bushel to 337 cents/bushel (1 hand corn 5000 bushels). Charlie also rolled his 1000 dollars into 6000 dollars.
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Growth period and growth conditions of maize
Corn can be divided into three different growth stages, namely seedling stage, ear stage and grain stage. Seedling stage refers to sowing to jointing stage, which is divided into sowing to trilobal stage and trilobal stage to jointing stage. From sowing date to three-leaf stage, soil moisture is the main factor affecting seedling emergence, while from three-leaf stage to jointing stage, maize seedlings are afraid of waterlogging and drought, and mild drought is beneficial to root development and rooting. The jointing stage to tasseling stage of maize is called ear stage, and tasseling stage to maturity stage is called flower and grain stage. The water demand of corn in these two periods is relatively large, especially in the 30 days of 8- 10 before flowering. The water demand of corn accounts for half of the total water consumption, and the soil moisture should be kept at about 80%.
300 million Jin of corn enters the customs every day.
(corn circulation and deep processing)
Because the soil in Northeast China is fertile and the terrain is flat and open, the corn output in the three northeastern provinces accounts for about 45% of the total corn output in China, and the corn sales areas are all over the country, so Heilongjiang and Jilin in Northeast China have become the largest corn export provinces in China, and "transporting grain from the north to the south" is the main trade pattern of corn in China. In recent years, corn production in Northeast China has increased rapidly. From 20 1 1 to 20 17, the total annual corn outflow in Northeast China rose rapidly from150,000 tons to about 50 million tons.
In recent years, due to the shift of feed industry from south China and southwest to northeast, the traditional pattern of "transporting grain from north to south" may become "raising pigs from south to north". At the same time, affected by environmental protection and other policies, the new production capacity of corn starch and fuel ethanol in Northeast China has expanded rapidly, and the consumption of corn industry in Northeast China will further increase. With the substantial expansion of feed breeding and deep processing capacity in producing areas, the main producing areas in Northeast China will become a balanced area of production and marketing in the next 3-5 years, and the traditional trade pattern may be greatly changed.
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Corn circulation
China's main corn producing areas are in Northeast China and North China, and the sales areas are all over the country, including South China, East China, North China and Northeast China. Heilongjiang and Jilin in the northeast are the largest corn export provinces in China. Corn is transported to Bayuquan, Jinzhou Port and other ports by road and railway, and then sent to various sales areas in the south. The transportation situation of corn also has a certain influence on the short-term price fluctuation of corn. If there is a large range of rain and snow, the transportation is not smooth, the price of the producing area drops, and the price of the selling area rises.
Jade is not cut, it is not a tool.
(Influencing factors of corn price)
In the summer of 20 12, there was a drought in the midwest of the United States. In March of that year, Sam made a bet on the fund he managed, betting that the price of corn futures would rise. As the disaster becomes more and more obvious, he should be happy, but a report of the US Department of Agriculture predicts that corn will have a bumper harvest due to a record planting area. This report made corn futures prices fall, falling 12% for the whole month.
Faced with the "authoritative" report of the Ministry of Agriculture and the sharp drop in corn futures prices, hedge funds have closed their positions and stopped losses. However, there are two reasons why Sam decided not to do anything: First, the US Environmental Protection Agency just issued a new regulation in April of the same year, requiring that the ethanol content of gasoline used in automobiles manufactured after 200 1 year should be increased from 10% to 15%, which will increase the demand for corn ethanol; Second, if American farmers really plant a record area of corn as stated in the report of the Ministry of Agriculture, they must use barren land that is not usually used, and their new corn supply will not be as much as predicted in the report of the Ministry of Agriculture.
Sam's first reason is actually common sense in the industry. As a part of the overall grain and energy strategy of the United States, the consumption of corn as fuel ethanol is increasing year by year, reaching 20 1 1, which has reached about 40% of the total output. The specific distribution of corn consumption in the United States in 20 1 1 year is as follows: 40% is used for fuel ethanol, 13% for export, 36% for American breeding, and the rest 1 1% is used for other purposes. In other words, in 20 1 1 year, the corn burned as fuel ethanol in the United States is more than three times that put into the international grain market. "Corn ethanol" has become a veritable "Three Gorges Dam" in American agriculture-the relationship between supply and demand in the international grain market is tight or loose, and it is enough to adjust it by this valve.
Sam's second reason comes from his unique family background. He grew up on a farm in Iowa and got up before dawn every day to feed the cows. In addition to his official job as a policeman, his father also works part-time as a farmer. When Sam was five years old, his father took him on a single-engine plane to inspect his cornfield from the air and explained to him how investors sold corn he didn't actually own through the futures exchange.
Sam's unique experience made him attach great importance to field investigation. 20 12 at the end of may, he flew to the company's research farm in southern Iowa. When he grabbed a handful of dirt from the ground, he became more and more confident about his bet on corn futures-the cracked dirt was scattered all over the floor when he pinched it in his hand, and the corn in the field was less than knee high, and some were as far as 6 inches. Analysts sent by Sam for field research also reported that farmers complained that the weather was too hot, which meant that drought was imminent.
The corn futures purchased by Sam company at the price of $5.59/bushel in March rose to $ 8. 1775/bushel on July 30th. On this day, Sam closed his position and gained a return of 46.29% in just five months.
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Influencing factors of corn price
The price of corn is influenced by many factors, among which the relationship between supply and demand is the most important and direct factor, including output, demand, logistics, national reserve, import and export, etc. Non-supply and demand factors include policy factors, economic cycle, weather changes, cost-benefit situation, emergencies and other food market conditions (see the figure below).
Figure Influencing factors of corn price
The source of sweetness in beverages
(In the case of corn starch)
Corn starch is a product obtained by coarse grinding and fine grinding of corn, and by-products such as germ, fiber and protein are separated, accounting for about 94% of the total starch output. Corn starch is an important downstream product in the corn industry chain. Geographically, the production of corn starch is mainly concentrated in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China. The main consumption areas of corn starch are mainly concentrated in North China, East China and South China. Except North China, which is both a production area and a sales area, corn starch in other sales areas needs to rely on trade and transportation.
Corn starch is widely used, with more than 3500 downstream products, involving starch sugar, medicine, chemical industry, beer, paper making and many other industries. Among them, the amount of starch sugar is the largest, accounting for about 58% of the total consumption of corn starch, and the sweetness in many drinks comes from starch sugar; Followed by papermaking (about 12%), food (about 7%), beer (about 6%), modified starch (about 5%), chemical industry (about 5%), medicine (about 4%) and so on. Corn starch consumption has a strong cyclical characteristics, which is significantly affected by seasonal and holiday effects. In general, the demand for corn starch is highly consistent with the annual rhythm of the China lunar calendar, and the demand for corn starch in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half; Before and after New Year's Day, Spring Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, there are obvious off-season sales.
Corn starch futures 20 14 12 19 are listed, which is a standardized contract with corn starch as the subject matter. The corn starch in the futures contract refers to the corn starch that meets the national standard "Edible Corn Starch" (GB/T8885) and the sanitary indicators of sulfur dioxide, arsenic and lead. As a processed product, the quality of corn starch is easy to control. China has formulated relevant national standards earlier, which has become the main reference for production control and trade circulation in the industry. According to trade habits, corn starch is generally packaged, with clear labels and convenient storage and transportation. Therefore, corn starch has the elements of physical delivery, which is in line with the prerequisite of commodity trading.
Comprehensive consideration of relevant factors, such as the trading unit of corn futures, the characteristics of spot market, contract scale, etc. The merchant sets the trading unit of corn starch futures as 10 ton/hand. First, it is consistent with corn futures, which is beneficial for investors to arbitrage between the two varieties; Second, from the production and marketing characteristics of corn starch industry, although the production enterprises are relatively large, the average scale of consumer enterprises is relatively small, and the trading unit is set at 10 ton/hand, which is convenient for small and medium-sized industrial customers to participate (see the table below).
Commercial university corn futures and corn starch futures contracts