Luo Shifeng, Noble Fund: Based on our close tracking of the industrial chain and our judgment on the development trend of the industry and leading enterprises, 202 1 is still optimistic about the catering industry chain, medical care, new energy and other sub-industries, which are still in a high prosperity state and have high investment value in the medium and long term.
Zheng Chengran, Guangfa Fund: It is expected that there will still be a structural market for 202 1a shares, but there is limited room for further expansion of the overall valuation. From the perspective of corporate profitability, the non-financial net profit of A shares is expected to increase by about 20% under the neutral assumption. Pro-cyclical industries benefiting from economic recovery are expected to get out of the structural market with the support of profit.
Liang Hao, Chinese Business Fund: In the medium and long term, Chinese capital, represented by the core target of A-share industry, will be the key area for strengthening capital allocation at home and abroad. Whether the incremental funds in the A-share market can continue the relatively positive trend in 2020 is an important factor affecting the 20021market.
HSBC Jintrust Fund Lu Bin: First, optimistic about new energy vehicles, the right side of the industry is accelerating, and there is no big risk in fundamentals; The second is the low valuation cycle industry represented by chemical industry; The third is national defense and military industry; Fourth, in the direction of financial real estate, the big financial industry represented by bank insurance may go out of the slow bull market.
How will the A-share market of 202 1 be interpreted? What trajectories may lead to? Where are the market risks?
From liquidity drive to performance drive
Zhao Yi: 202 1 will be in the recovery period of an epidemic. The overseas situation is still unclear, and economic recovery will take a long time. Marginally, monetary policy will not be looser, but as the Economic Work Conference said, "there will be no' sharp turn'", which means that the market will return from track selection and valuation to the degree of performance realization.
Lu Bin: 202 1 will be a year in which risks and opportunities coexist. First of all, from the perspective of risk, the risk premium level of the current market is below the historical negative standard deviation of 0.5 times, and there is a certain valuation pressure on the whole market. 202 1 the main market risk may come from the rise of industry valuation.
From the perspective of opportunity, the structural bull market characteristics of a few high-quality leading companies in the past few years are very obvious, and we can still find more investment opportunities from many industries. At present, the opportunities we can see include long-term optimistic growth stock opportunities, such as new energy-related industries, as well as manufacturing and pro-cyclical opportunities, such as national defense and chemical industries.
Zheng Chengran: One of the main macro features of 202 1 is that economic recovery is superimposed on inflation and reflation. The main driving force of China's economy comes from three aspects: First, the mismatch between supply and demand still exists in the first half of the year, bringing strong exports and stimulating investment in related manufacturing industries; Second, the consumption and offline service industries continue to be repaired; Third, infrastructure and real estate investment have weakened, but considering the low level of real estate inventory, it is expected that real estate investment will show some resilience while maintaining sales. In terms of inflation, CPI and PPI will increase to a certain extent, but the extent may not be too great. Monetary policy will maintain the current "moderate exit" tone.
Based on the economic fundamentals and monetary policy, it is expected that there will still be a structural market for 202 1a shares, but there is limited room for further expansion of the overall valuation. From the perspective of corporate profitability, under the neutral assumption, the non-financial net profit of A shares is expected to increase by about 20%. Among them, pro-cyclical industries that benefit from economic recovery are expected to get out of the structural market with the support of profit.
Liang Hao: The Economic Work Conference gave important guidance on keeping the growth rate of money supply and social financing basically match the nominal economic growth rate, which means that the higher GDP growth rate of 5,438+0 and the lower social financing growth rate of the central government in 2026 can keep the leverage ratio relatively stable compared with the real GDP growth rate of about 2% in 2020 and the social financing growth rate of 13% in 2026. Under this certain adjustment, it is of no special significance to actively tighten credit. Monetary policy is more an orderly withdrawal of unconventional stimulus policies during the epidemic period, and its impact on the market is neutral.
Financial conditions will be moderately tightened, and the market with a sharp expansion of A-share valuation in 2020 will face greater challenges. Considering the gradual recovery of global economy and the long-term trend of industrial upgrading in China after the landing of vaccines, the market of 202 1 may be more structural opportunities.
The epidemic situation is the main influencing factor.
Zheng Chengran: If the economic recovery trend can continue and the expected profit growth rate of listed companies can be fulfilled, then the valuation pressure of A shares can be released, which is an important positive factor of 202 1. In addition, the specific content of the Tenth Five-Year Plan has gradually become clear, and the demand of emerging industries that are in line with industrial policy orientation and have supply barriers may exceed expectations, which is a potential positive factor.
Liang Hao: In the medium and long term, Huaxia Assets, represented by the core target of A-share industry, will be the key area for strengthening capital allocation at home and abroad. The trend of domestic deposits moving and funds blocking core assets from going north is still not over. Since 20 19, a large amount of funds have flowed in, which directly raised the valuation center of A shares. Under the moderately tight macro liquidity environment, whether the incremental funds in the A-share market can continue the relatively positive trend in 2020 is an important factor affecting the 202 1 market.
Monetary policy, the speed of economic recovery, etc.
Become a potential risk point
Zhao Yi: In 20 19 and 2020, Public Offering of Fund has achieved a good return on investment, which also means that the future shock adjustment is a possible situation in a healthy market. In the long run, with the continuous listing of outstanding domestic enterprises, their competitiveness will be continuously strengthened, which is conducive to long-term market stability.
The liquidity of 202 1 will not be as loose as it was during the epidemic, which will restrain the expansion of valuation to a certain extent, which means that the excessive valuation needs to be digested through the continuous growth of performance. From this point of view, the difficulty of stock selection will become greater, and the growth stock 202 1 is more important than the past two years.
Zheng Chengran: There may be several potential risks: First, there are still uncertainties about the recurrence of the epidemic and the effect of vaccination. At present, it is unanimously expected that large-scale vaccination can be achieved overseas in the second quarter. On this basis, the overseas economy will recover significantly after the second quarter of 20021. If the vaccination progress is not as expected or the epidemic itself exceeds expectations, the logic of global economic recovery in 20021year may be destroyed.
The second is the uncertainty of the global political situation. After Biden took office, the market expects that Sino-US relations may ease in stages. If the external trade environment changes, it may have an impact on industries such as science and technology, which is also a potential risk.
Third, there may be a staged dislocation between policy and economy. The current economic recovery trend is good, and the policy is moderately withdrawn. After the second quarter of 20021,if the economic recovery slows down, will there be corresponding policies to deal with it, which may disturb the market sentiment in stages?
Liang Hao: Since 20 19, the overall market valuation level has been systematically improved, and the valuations of some leading industries are at historical highs. According to historical experience, at a higher valuation level, the market may amplify some negative factors at the macro and micro levels, increase fluctuations, and the short-term decline exceeds expectations. At present, the macro-level attitude of the Federal Reserve to inflation, the process of domestic credit tightening, the micro-level high-frequency industry data, and the performance of individual stocks may all become "catalytic" factors for risk release at some point, but in the medium and long term, event-based valuation may be a good opportunity to intervene after short-term emotional release.
Optimistic about the catering industry chain, medical care, new energy and so on.
Lu Bin: First, we are optimistic about new energy vehicles. The right side of the industry is accelerating, and the fundamentals do not see big risks. In the context of high valuation, it is necessary to grasp the opportunity by combining the fundamentals and the dynamic strategy system of valuation. The second is the low valuation cycle industry represented by chemical industry. With the sustained economic recovery, the periodicity of the chemical industry is weakening. Under the influence of supply-side reform and multiple restrictions on safety and environmental protection, the industry has accelerated the survival of the fittest, further strengthened its concentration and strengthened its barriers. You can find many opportunities with relatively low valuation and good growth. The third is the national defense industry. The fourth is the direction of financial real estate. The big financial industry represented by bank insurance may come out of the slow bull market.
Zhao Yi: The growth stocks of "consumption+technology" have performed very well in the past two years. With the recovery of macroeconomic growth in the post-epidemic era, the liquidity margin will not be relaxed, and the persistence and certainty of high growth of growth stocks are required more.
From a longer dimension, it is still very optimistic about the new energy field. Although many people think that the growth rate in 2020 is already very large, the three major economies of the United States, China and Europe have continued to increase their investment after the epidemic. Whether it is photovoltaic or new energy vehicles, China has the most complete and competitive industrial chain in the world and will benefit from the great development of the world.
Zheng Chengran: First of all, we are optimistic about industries that are in line with the current industrial policy direction. The draft proposal of the 14th Five-Year Plan, the industrial policies of the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference and the Central Economic Work Conference basically revolve around the "double cycle". Scientific and technological innovation and boosting domestic demand are relatively clear directions, and industries that are in line with industrial policy orientation include industries related to large consumption, high-end manufacturing and scientific and technological innovation.
Followed by industries that have benefited from the global economic recovery. In 2020, China's economic recovery will exceed expectations, mainly in exports, and behind it is the mismatch between global supply and demand. The epidemic situation in China has been effectively prevented and controlled, and the supply has recovered rapidly. However, due to repeated overseas epidemics and different financial support methods, the consumption capacity has not been damaged but the supply capacity has not recovered. In this case of mismatch between supply and demand, many China manufacturing enterprises quickly seize the global market share. What we hope to find is an enterprise with global competitive advantage: short-term mismatch between supply and demand will accelerate its market share acquisition. After the epidemic, the repair of overseas goods will not lead to the withdrawal of its share. Such industries include electronic components, chemicals, home appliances, auto parts and so on.
Luo Shifeng: 202 1, still optimistic about the catering industry chain, medical care, new energy and other sub-industries, these industries are still in a high state of prosperity, with high investment value in the medium and long term.
Liang Hao: After two years of market growth, the overall valuation has been greatly improved. 202 1 We need to look further and give priority to enterprises with long-term development prospects, good growth and core barriers. Although the short-term increase is large, in the long run, these companies still have the potential to create good returns, such as some companies in the fields of medicine, new energy vehicles, food and beverage.
The "golden track" may be divided.
Zhao Yi: There is a big gap between the growth stocks of consumption+technology and the value stocks of cycle+finance. With the expected improvement of economic growth, the market will enter a rebalancing process.
Lu Bin: 202 1 I am more optimistic about the new energy industry. Through industry comparison, for example, in the field of consumer electronics, after the popularization in the past 10 years, the penetration rate of smart phones has been very high, and the industry increment is very small. More is to improve profitability through category innovation or compete for market share of peers to improve performance. In the past five years, the consumption field has been booming, and many investors in the market have obvious preferences for this industry. However, from our analysis, the short-term performance explosiveness and future development sustainability of some consumer sectors are not so clear.
Zheng Chengran: Both technology and consumption have experienced a round of valuation inflation, and the valuation score is at a high level. Judging from the valuation quantile in the past five years, the valuation of the consumer industry represented by food and beverage and household appliances is almost the highest in five years. The internal differentiation of technology stocks is obvious, the valuation of communication industry has dropped significantly, and the valuation of semiconductor-related industries is relatively high.
The consumer and technology industries either have high certainty of long-term profit or have a large room for long-term growth, with a good business model and supply barriers behind them. In the long run, these industries are on a relatively high-quality track. Although the short-term valuation is high, if the profit can be cashed or the valuation is adjusted back, the allocation value is still relatively high. After all, in the context of the downward trend of the economic growth center, the stability of growth and profitability deserves a certain valuation premium.
Liang Hao: Science and technology and consumption are the two engines supporting China's future economic development. In the past 5- 10 years, the consumer and technology industries have outperformed the market for a long time.
There are many sub-sectors of consumption, two of which are particularly important-food, beverage and medicine. Let's look at the catering first. The space of domestic high-end liquor industry continues to grow rapidly, and the competition pattern is very stable. The brand premium of leading companies is strong, and the moat is also constantly strengthening. This pattern cannot be changed in the short term. The medical field involves a wide range of fields, including both consumption attributes and scientific and technological attributes. With the gradual increase of China's aging population, as well as some new demands such as height intervention and medical beauty brought about by consumption upgrading, some pharmaceutical sub-industry leaders are expected to continue to outperform the market.
Science and technology sectors, such as electronics, semiconductors, new energy vehicles, etc. , are in line with the national science and technology strategy to upgrade the direction of the industry. We are at the beginning of a new industrial technology cycle. Technological progress in the fields of 5G and AI will truly change our way of life and bring huge investment opportunities to many industries such as high-end equipment manufacturing, new materials and new energy vehicles.
Invest in a long-term dimension
Zhao Yi: Under the premise of "housing and not speculating", the weight of individual assets allocation of residents is changing. Public Offering of Fund's good performance attracts investors to transfer personal funds. They are mutually causal and promote the development of equity funds. In essence, Public Offering of Fund is a high-quality investment product in the asset allocation of ordinary investors, so investors are advised to invest in funds in a longer dimension. Many statistical results also come to a similar conclusion: the longer the holding cycle, the richer the return.
No matter what type of fund it is, it does not mean that these fund products will always go up and down. If investors invest for a long time, they can stick to it when there are fluctuations, and really get the benefits brought by the industry rise when the industry rises. I hope investors can join us, invest in a long-term dimension and witness the growth of China's capital market.
Luo Shifeng: In the past two years, with the breaking of financial management, residents' wealth allocation has gradually shifted to equity funds, which have also brought good investment returns to investors. Judging from the rate of return, the overall rate of return of public equity funds is relatively high in recent years, which greatly exceeds the increase of the market index, and the wealth effect further strengthens the trend of asset allocation of residents. The reason behind this is that China's capital market is becoming more and more mature, the proportion of institutional investors is increasing year by year, and foreign capital continues to flow into the domestic market, which makes the overall investment concept of A shares gradually return to value investment. It is expected that these trends will continue in the future, and the vigorous development of equity funds will be the main trend for a long time to come.
Liang Hao: The mobility of residents' deposits and relatively limited financial management methods are important factors for the outbreak of equity funds. But the more core background behind it is that a number of outstanding companies have emerged in the A-share market in the past few years, and their R&D and governance levels are very outstanding. After the introduction of the registration system in science and technology innovation board, the "quality supply" of the A-share market has been continuously enriched, which is quite different from the market situation ten years ago or even five years ago. Attracted by high-quality supply, considering that the proportion of equity assets in China residents' assets is still low, there is reason to believe that this trend is still sustainable.
Lu Bin: First of all, the overall performance of equity funds is excellent, which is behind the better performance of the entire A-share market. Although the index did not increase much, it showed a structural bull market. Moreover, with the advancement of capital market reform, there are more and more good A-share companies, and more and more residents' funds begin to enter the market, which has made the brilliant market in 2020.
Secondly, the concept of "buying a fund is not as good as trading stocks" has become more and more popular, and the professional ability of fund managers has been recognized by more investors. Investment depends on a deep understanding and forward-looking grasp of the industry. We did a lot of research on the new energy industry in the third quarter of last year and realized that there was no problem with the fundamentals of the industry and it was about to improve. There is a big expected difference between fundamentals and prices. Finally, we have grasped the new energy market well.
In the future, we are very optimistic about the value that excellent active managers bring to investors. I hope investors believe in long-term professional strength and choose good fund products and good fund managers to help you make investments.
This article is from China Fund.