Domestic demand: a major strategic opportunity
Construction machinery: ultra-low P/E ratio shows investment value.
The credit policy has been gradually relaxed, and railway investment has increased ... With the introduction of a series of policies and measures to stimulate the economy, the machinery industry, which slowed down in the second and third quarters of this year, is expected to turn around. Industry analysts believe that although the growth rate of the industry has slowed down due to the shrinking downstream demand, with the downward adjustment of domestic steel prices, especially in the past few weeks, it is expected that the gross profit margin of listed construction machinery companies will bottom out in the fourth quarter, and short-term opportunities may appear.
In the second and third quarters of this year, the performance of listed construction machinery companies slowed down compared with 1 quarter, but still maintained a 40% growth. According to the information provided by Southwest Securities, despite the steady growth in performance, the A-share machinery sector still fell by 3 1.46% in the third quarter, which was higher than the market average. In addition, affected by the downward trend of economic growth, investors are generally worried about the future development of the industry, which is also an important reason for this sector to underperform the market.
Bank of China International Securities analysts believe that due to multiple factors such as the credit crunch, the Olympic Games and rising raw material prices, the performance of many listed construction machinery companies in the third quarter was lower than expected. The third quarterly report shows that Sany Heavy Industry (excluding securities investment losses), Zoomlion, Shantui and Fiona Fang performed relatively well, while He Shan Smart and Anhui Heli performed poorly. Xugong Technology announced a major asset restructuring in July, and the fundamentals are expected to be greatly improved.
After the third quarter, with the relaxation of the domestic and international economic environment, while the adverse factors are gradually slowing down, the state has further increased investment and measures to expand domestic demand have been continuously introduced, and listed construction machinery companies are expected to maintain a high-speed growth trend. BOC International Securities believes that the process of industrialization and urbanization in China is still in the primary stage, and the demand potential for infrastructure construction such as railways, highways, airports and docks is still huge. National key projects such as post-disaster reconstruction and Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway construction will bring great impetus to the construction machinery industry.
Sun Xin, an analyst at Southwest Securities, is optimistic that the performance of the secondary market in the whole sector is relatively poor due to unfavorable factors such as the international financial crisis and reduced demand. However, compared with the industry valuation in the past two years, the current sector valuation is already at an ultra-low level, and the average price-earnings ratio of the sector is only about 10 times, compared with more than 80 times in the same period last year. Now may be the best time to invest in value. However, some analysts believe that there are still many concerns in machinery listed companies, and the decline in housing enterprises' prosperity and related stimulus policies are still uncertain, perhaps just short-term opportunities.
In terms of individual stocks, BOC International Securities believes that with the disappearance of securities investment losses and the steady growth of its main business, Sany Heavy Industry's fundamentals are expected to improve substantially next year; Zoomlion's product profitability is relatively stable, and the company's better cost control ability also strengthens the certainty of its profit growth. In the first three quarters of this year, the sales volume of Liugong loaders increased by 23% year-on-year, which was higher than the industry average. With the fall of steel prices, especially in the past few weeks, it is expected that the company's gross profit margin will start to pick up in the fourth quarter.
Focus on individual stocks: Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, Liugong, Zhenhua Port Machinery Xugong Technology.
Railways: 2 trillion investment in China's "double-track railway" will benefit the most.
Recently, good news to stimulate economic development has come out frequently. Ministry of Railways124 October News 65438 The railway investment approved by the State Council has reached 2 trillion yuan, of which the investment under construction exceeds 1.2 trillion yuan. In the future, many major projects will be put into construction in China. At the same time, the Ministry of Credit also decided to use the launch plan for next year for key industries such as railways. For a long time to come, with the increase of railway investment, railway stocks will be one of the focuses of investors.
Data show that since 2005, the annual compound growth rate of investment in the railway industry has reached more than 30%. In 2006 and 2007, the railway industry invested 450 billion yuan. According to the previous investment growth rate, it is estimated that there will be an annual investment quota of 350 billion yuan in 2008-20 10, which can guarantee the compound annual growth rate of railway investment of about 20% in the next two years. Galaxy Securities predicts that in the next two to three years, the railway industry will maintain a growth rate of not less than 25%, and the railway vehicle industry will also maintain a growth rate of more than 15%. There is a broad space for medium and long-term sustainable development.
In terms of railway infrastructure, China Railway and China Railway Construction are the top five state-owned enterprises with the special qualification of railway general contracting or equivalent, accounting for more than 80% of the national railway construction market and becoming the biggest beneficiaries of accelerated railway infrastructure investment. Affected by the financial turmoil, China Railway and China Railway Construction suffered "Australian Dollar Gate", and the exchange losses in the third quarter reached 2,356,543.8 million yuan and 320 million yuan respectively. In this regard, China Merchants Securities analysts believe that this is only a non-main Australian dollar loss and does not pose a fundamental threat to the two companies. At present, the main business of the two companies is in good condition, the contract amount of railway projects continues to rise, and the company's gross profit margin is expected to continue to rise.
In the railway rolling stock market, China South Locomotive and China CNR have an absolute advantage, monopolizing 95% of the market share. In addition to the listed China South Locomotive, Jinxi Axle and Northern Venture, which have truck manufacturing business, are also expected to share a piece of the action. Bank securities analyst Ju believes that China South Locomotive holds nearly 50% of the domestic market share of railway vehicles, and has obvious advantages in areas such as EMUs. It is far better than the other two listed companies in comprehensive strength, market share, product structure and profitability. In the favorable period of sustained and rapid growth of the railway industry, the company's performance is expected to continue to grow. However, the valuation of China CSR is still somewhat high.
Focus on individual stocks: China Railway, China Railway Construction, China South Locomotive, North Venture and Jinxi Axle.
Cement: Focus on the Advantages of Excellent Enterprises in the Downward Period of Economic Prosperity
Following the railway investment of 2 trillion yuan, the transportation department is planning a 5 trillion investment plan, which has been disclosed by the media. After the news of stimulating the economy came out one after another, the cement sector was extremely active this week, and many stocks rose greatly, which attracted market attention. According to industry insiders, stimulated by good news, cement stocks have obvious short-term opportunities, but the downward trend of industry prosperity has been formed, so we can focus on outstanding enterprises and advantageous regions.
The data shows that in September, the growth rate of national real estate development investment slowed down obviously, and the cement prices in major cities in the country fluctuated up and down in the third quarter, showing an overall "off-season". The third quarterly report shows that the operating income of 2/kloc-0 listed companies in the cement sector is 410.70 billion yuan, up nearly 28% year-on-year. Among them, the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 24.72%, down by 2.0 1% and 2.45% respectively, and the gross profit margin in the first quarter was 9.27%, down by 0.7%. In the first three quarters, the net profit of cement sector increased by 28. 14% year-on-year, and the overall gross profit margin decreased, but the cost control ability of enterprises improved during the period.
Analysts believe that the current decline in coal prices is good for cement enterprises, government stimulus measures have been introduced one after another, and short-term investment opportunities in the cement sector have emerged. However, as the newly started area and investment in the real estate industry are expected to continue to decline, the national infrastructure investment is still lagging behind, and the downward trend of the building materials industry is basically determined. Bohai Securities believes that the performance of the building materials industry is still not optimistic in the fourth quarter of this year and the first half of next year, and the turning point is more likely to appear in the middle of next year.
Tianxiang Company's analysis report holds that in the case of declining industry prosperity, investment in cement stocks should pay attention to outstanding enterprises and advantageous regions. First of all, under the guidance of regional subdivision, with the rise of central China, western development and post-disaster reconstruction, the central and western markets will be more favorable; Secondly, the downward trend of cement industry prosperity has been established. After deep adjustment in the early stage, the share price of cement shows that excellent enterprises have long-term investment value from the perspective of PB valuation. In terms of cash flow, Conch raised 65,438+065,438+030 million yuan and Jidong Cement 2.9 billion yuan, which provided financial support for the expected merger.
Key stocks: Conch, Jidong Cement, huaxin cement, Yatai Group and Marseille Industry.
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Page 3: Promoting the value of agricultural stocks in the overall situation of "new agriculture, countryside and farmers"