On Thursday, the market pulled back sharply, and the decline of individual stocks increased. On the disk, the banking sector has become the only rising sector in the two cities, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers and military industries among the top losers. There were 29 daily limit and 93 daily limit in the two cities. The inflow of Shanghai Stock Connect was 65.438+85.3 million yuan, that of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 65.438+28.9 million yuan, and that of northbound capital was 36.5438+42 million yuan. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2929.09 points, down 0.89%; The Shenzhen Component Index reported 9464.84 points, down 2.13%; Chuangzhi Bao 1623.79 points, down 2.92%.

market outlook

Form bottom

The weakness of the pre-holiday market should be expected, but the adjustment of individual stocks on Thursday obviously exceeded expectations. In addition to this week's evaluation and analysis of the weakening of the disk, the accelerated adjustment of individual stocks actually has a certain relationship with today's bank index surge. In the news, the Ministry of Finance transferred all the tens of billions of shares of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China to the Social Security Fund Council, with a market value of about11500 million yuan. In another news, today, the Ministry of Finance issued a document "Financial Planning for Financial Enterprises (Draft for Comment)", which has a significant impact on banking stocks. If the provision coverage ratio exceeds twice the regulatory requirements stipulated in the exposure draft, it is considered that there is a hidden profit tendency, and the excess provision will be restored to undistributed profits for distribution. According to the current regulatory requirements, the basic standard of provision coverage ratio is 150%, while there are 23 banks with provision coverage ratio exceeding 200% in the two cities, and some banks have provision coverage ratio as high as 300%-500%. Therefore, if this policy is finally implemented, the direct impact on banks with high provision coverage ratio will be a substantial release of profits, which will greatly enhance the investment value of banking stocks, which is also the reason why the turnover of banking sector has been enlarged/kloc-0.00 billion today. Under the background of weak market trading and capital return before the holiday, the stock price is at a high level, and the stocks lacking performance support are facing callback pressure. At this time, the banking stocks are undoubtedly worse, and its pressure can be imagined.

Operation strategy

After the market covered the gap before the holiday, the trend weakened. Strategically, lighten the position first until the news is clear after the holiday. We continue to avoid high-end stocks with large gains, and pay moderate attention to bank stocks with high provision coverage ratio that benefit from the new regulations.

Chen Da, investment consultant, with the practice certificate number s0260611010020.