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Do etf positions really have reference value?
This is an excerpt from an online article: gold ETF does not involve high-risk gold margin trading, so it has certain reference value for long-term physical gold investors who do not involve margin. But for investors involved in gold reserves, this may be misleading in many cases. We also track the trading behavior of gold ETFs, but rarely interpret the trading behavior of gold ETFs when analyzing the market capital trend. Because we think most of the time it has no reference value for margin trading. Figure 1 is a complete comparison of the trading route and market trend of the world's largest gold ETF(SPDR Gold Trust). The lower part of the chart is the change curve of gold position of SPDR Gold Trust, and the columnar index in the middle represents the increase or decrease of its position in each transaction. As can be seen from the figure, in the process of gold price peaking at 1226.65 USD in 2009 and adjusting to 1044.2 USD, the lightening of SPDR Gold Trust was very limited. If margin investors hold long positions with the same long-term thinking, they may lose nothing in this local sharp adjustment of gold prices. Therefore, if there are still analysts who always tell margin investors about the trading behavior of gold ETFs, it seems to be "big and empty", such an analysis is not credible, and such a "story" has no practical application value. Doesn't represent my opinion. . .