Definition:
The full name of PMI index in English is Purchasing Managers Index, which means purchasing managers index in Chinese. PMI index 50 is the dividing line between prosperity and recession. When the PMI is greater than 50, it shows that the economy is developing; When the PMI is below 50, it means that the economy is declining. PMI is a comprehensive economic monitoring index system released every month, which is divided into manufacturing PMI and service PMI, and some countries have established construction PMI. More than 20 countries around the world have established PMI systems, and the world manufacturing and service PMI has been established. PMI is an index summarized through the monthly survey of purchasing managers, which reflects the changing trend of the economy.
Calculation method:
Purchasing manager index is a comprehensive index, which is weighted by five diffusion indexes: new order index (abbreviated as order), production index (abbreviated as production), employee index (abbreviated as employee), supplier delivery time index (abbreviated as delivery) and main raw material inventory index (abbreviated as inventory) according to international common practice.
trait
Timeliness and leadership
PMI index is the leading indicator of economic monitoring. Because the survey method is quick and simple, it is published once a month, much earlier than other official data. The business report based on PMI is one of the reports with the shortest lag period among all macroeconomic series data.
Comprehensive and instructive
PMI is a comprehensive index system. Although there are not many indicators, it covers many aspects of economic activities, such as new orders, new export orders, imports, production, supplier distribution, inventory, employees, prices and so on. Its comprehensive index reflects the overall economic situation and the overall changing trend, while various indicators reflect all aspects of enterprise supply and procurement activities, especially some unique indicators in PMI that are missing from other statistical indicators, such as order lead time and supplier delivery time.
Authenticity and reliability
The PMI questionnaire survey is aimed at purchasing and supply managers, and the original data obtained are directly summarized without any modification, and calculated by scientific methods to ensure the authenticity of the data source. At the same time, seasonal adjustment is carried out to reduce the impact of seasonal fluctuations, laws and regulations and legal holidays, so it has high reliability.
Science and reason
First, the sample selection covers different industries. According to the contribution of various industries to GDP, a certain number of enterprises are selected, and the samples of industries with large contributions are more, and vice versa; Secondly, considering the geographical distribution, the sample enterprises should have sufficient geographical representation; In addition, the scale of enterprises is considered, representing enterprises of different scales. This reduces the errors caused by random fluctuations. After the first sampling selection, the samples are basically determined, but the samples should be randomly selected every year or every six months, and adjusted in time according to the changes of enterprises and purchasing managers.
simple and easy to do
PMI questionnaire survey is a non-quantitative survey, and the simplicity of data collection and processing ensures its continuity, timeliness and reliability as a forecasting tool. The questionnaire has a clear explanation for each indicator. The questionnaire also lists several open questions, including purchasing strategy, raw materials and shortage varieties with rising and falling prices, which provides more specific information for research and application.