The English name of this article is Wealth Redistribution in China Stock Market: The Role of Bubble and Crash. Translated into Chinese is the impact of A-share bubble on wealth distribution.
This article is about the income of different classes of families during the 20 15 bull market. The result is realistic and cruel:
According to the market value and cash of securities accounts, this paper divides retail investors into four categories.
WG1:less than 500,000 RMB, accounting for 85% of this population;
WG2: 500,000 to 3 million;
WG3: 3 million to 6.5438+million;
Wg4:100000, and this population accounts for 0.5%.
Obviously, most people who read this article belong to WG 1 and WG2.
The four categories all started to invest from June 20 14 to June 20 15. After the bull market fluctuated in June 20 15, the investment income in June 20 16 was as follows:
The richest WG4 earned 254 billion yuan, while the poorest, accounting for 85%, just lost 250 billion yuan.
Converted into a rate of return, the top rich earned 3 1%, while the bottom retail investors lost 28%.
In other words, in the last bull market, the total market value of the stock market and the total social wealth did not change during the process of A-shares from 3000 to 5000 and then back to 3000.
In this process, wealth has been transferred, and just 250 billion has been transferred from the bottom retail investors to the top rich.
How did this happen?
Friends who have experienced the 20 15 bull market know that the bull market of that year was a chicken and a dog rising to heaven, but the ignorant and fearless novice stock traders got the highest income.
There are almost no rich people who get excess returns through stock selection because they have inside information.
According to the research of several professors in Tsinghua University, the problem lies in the timing.
(1) purchase
During the period of 20 15 when the bull market started and the bubble burst, the capital inflow of different classes of families was as follows. The dotted line is the Shanghai Composite Index.
Before the bull market 1 year, that is, 20 14 years, WG4, representing the top rich, continuously increased its investment in A shares; Relatively wealthy class, funds are also flowing into A shares, but slower than the top rich.
At the same time, the bottom retail investors are constantly withdrawing from A shares.
By March 2065438+2005, the bull market was fully launched. In the process of gradually entering the top area, the retail investors at the bottom began to increase their positions against the normal capital outflow.
In other words, the top rich buy when A shares are cheapest, and the bottom poor choose to buy when A shares are most expensive.
(2) Profit taking
By carefully comparing the previous figures, you will find that in fact, on the eve of the 20 15 bull market crash, the top rich did not quit, but still bought in large quantities.
As a result, they also suffered heavy losses when the bull market crashed. They had already made 600 billion yuan, and they crashed 400 billion yuan in the stock market crash. Income has shrunk by two thirds.
In other words, in terms of profit, the rich have failed as well as the bottom retail investors.
(3) Stop loss
2065438+After the bull market crashed in mid-June 2005, the funds of the top rich quickly flowed out and stopped in time. Almost in July of 20 15, rich people sold most of their chips.
And not only the top rich, but also the rich from all walks of life are selling chips to stop losses. Who accepted the offer? 85% of the bottom retail investors.
The bottom retail investors continued to buy A shares during the June 20 15 to June 20 15 and June 20 10. At that time, their psychological probability was like this:
"I missed the best opportunity to open a position before, and the money was earned by others. Now that A shares are falling and the stock market is plummeting, it is the best time to buy. The more you fall, the more you want to buy. Let's go, let's go. ! ! 」
In fact, it is no problem for retail investors to continue to buy at this time.
20 15, 10, the total income index of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell to 3700 points. If it is held today, it will be 6 100. In less than five years, the position yield is as high as 65%, and the average annual yield is 13%.
But the problem is that with more and more floating losses in positions, the mentality of retail investors has collapsed.
According to the cash flow statement, by June 20 15 and 10, retail investors at the bottom began to sell A shares regardless of the willy-nilly.
But at this time, the stock market positions of the top rich began to rise, taking over the chips of retail investors.
In fact, there will be another stock market crash on 20 16, and the total return index of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 will fall to a lower 3400 points. The rich will still lose money in the short term.
But there is no doubt that the rich bought back cheap chips, and the bottom retail investors were washed away.
So the next cycle begins.
I drew the above process in the chart of the total income of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
It can be seen that the biggest difference between the rich and the poor in asset allocation lies in the mode of thinking.
Is there any inside information about the top rich? Actually, it's not.
We also mentioned in the previous analysis that the top rich have not escaped two stock market crashes, and their relative losses even far exceed those of other classes. Actually, the stock market is unpredictable.
Not only that, this article has more data to prove. For example, in the bear market from 20 12 to 20 14, the yield of the top rich is only 3%. In other words, in the bear market, the top rich also have excellent income records, but there is no inside information as everyone imagined.
The real power of rich people's thinking lies in firmly holding the best assets at a low level. They can't accurately judge the next trend of the market, but they know that it is right to buy assets on vague dips.
And they are firmly optimistic about A shares. As long as A shares fall to the right place, they will buy them immediately, even if the stock market crash brings them less beautiful memories.
This kind of thinking of the top rich will also appear in the management style of fund managers.
We have a preferred portfolio of active funds. Choose the best fund manager in the market in the portfolio.
During the bull market of 20 15, the performance of the optimal portfolio of active funds lags far behind the broad-based indexes such as CSI 300 and CSI 500, with an increase of 30%~ 100%.
But when the stock market fell to the right place, their earnings began to catch up with the index again.
This reflects that fund managers also hold a large proportion of positions in the bear market, which is consistent with the index; In the bull market, the position was greatly reduced and the profit was taken, which lagged behind the index.
Unfortunately, despite so many examples, the thinking of retail investors in China has not changed for so many years.
Some people don't even have a stock account, nor have they analyzed a listed company. With only a few articles or even just hearsay, they dare to belittle the whole A-share to nothing.
What A shares are casinos, financing tools for state-owned enterprises and meat grinders for retail investors? These remarks have a good market in a bear market. The bear market verified the "correctness" of these statements in a short time.
When A shares rebounded, they still didn't believe it. When A shares soared into the bull market, they began to ask around what to buy.
So, is buying A shares now the thinking mode of the top rich or the thinking mode of the bottom retail investors?
You can look at the valuation chart of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300:
At that time, the positions of the rich were concentrated in March 20141~ 2015 and 20 16 after the stock market crash. At that time, the PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was lower than 12 times.
In the last madness of the bull market in March 20 15, the P/E ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose to more than 14 times, and the bottom retail investors began to increase their positions desperately.
Today's analogy
From June 20 18 to April 2020, the P/E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is less than 12 times most of the time. At that time, buying was the thinking of the top rich.
Since July, the P/E ratio PE of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has just reached 14 times, once again entering the jiacang range of retail investors at the bottom of that year.
Coincidentally, the number of retail investors who discuss the stock market, buy funds and speculate in stocks has also increased recently.
There is nothing new under the sun, and it is a cycle of sadness and joy.
If you are in the epidemic pit, the P/E ratio of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is less than 12 times, follow my article to achieve more than 60% positions, which is the thinking of the wealthy class with 3 million positions; If Man Cang is realized, it is the thinking mode of the top rich and fund managers!
No matter what kind of experience this bull market has left you, it is a little bit of happiness, sad memories or thrilling. Please pick up the cheap chips scattered all over the place with the top rich people after the noisy bull market, in the reviled voice of retail investors and in the bleak autumn wind.