looking back on 22, it can be described in one sentence: there are joys and sorrows.

This year, the macro environment was under pressure and the stock market fluctuated widely. However, throughout the year, many sectors of the financial market went against the trend, and medical and pharmaceutical, new energy, military industry, liquor and so on increased dramatically, which can be described as "another village with a bright future." In such a market, some investors make a lot of money by taking advantage of the trend, and some pass by with only a sigh.

In the post-epidemic era in 221, with the successful development of vaccines in COVID-19, the global optimism for 221 is gradually rising; China entered the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan"; It is also the centenary of the founding of the Party, and we have entered this important transitional stage. How can we grasp the investment opportunities in the future?

Chen Junyong, executive vice president of Soochow Fund and chairman of the investment decision-making committee, expressed his outlook and expectation for the future with "eight conjectures".

this is the strategic layout of the enterprise, and it is also a bonus brought by economic recovery in the post-epidemic era. With the gradual recovery of macro-economy, trade at home and abroad will return to the right track, and enterprises that export trade and actively deploy overseas markets are expected to stand out among many enterprises. The gradually expanding domestic supply chain may replace the shrinking overseas supply chain, such as the export of epidemic prevention materials. Some enterprises that are limited by the macro-environment and cause periodic losses are expected to regain their foothold by grasping the rhythm, rearranging the layout and adjusting the structure. The future market share of such enterprises represented by auto parts is worth looking forward to.

The game between China and the United States may continue, and the technical bottleneck of high-end manufacturing remains the core issue. The upgrading of chip semiconductor technology is imminent, leading enterprises gradually concentrate on technology, and resource endowment is expected to be improved. Among them, the most important national security, such as the promotion of international competitiveness in military, internet, supply chain and public health, has a long way to go for technological upgrading, and the long-term development space of leading enterprises in related fields can be imagined.

consumption is an important engine of economic growth. Entering the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the income distribution structure in China will be further optimized, the social security system will be improved, the consumption quality and service supply will be improved, and the consumption environment of residents will be improved, which is expected to eventually realize the situation that ordinary people are "able to consume, willing to consume and dare to consume". From the perspective of low-end consumption, the integration of "online+offline" channels may bring about great changes in the retail industry, and the advanced logistics system continues to bring opportunities for the large-scale development of low-end consumption. In high-end consumption, with the increase of the income level of the corresponding consumers and the continuous appreciation of the assets, the consumption upgrade is continuous, and the branding and high-end of consumer goods are the future development direction.

The epidemic situation and changes in the external environment are undoubtedly a stress test on the road of domestic enterprises' development, superimposed with the "siphon effect" of the new delisting regulations. In this test, the disadvantages of small enterprises with low market value gradually appear, and the phenomenon of falling behind and finally retiring may occur in the future, which may further increase the market share of leading enterprises. The superposition of their continuous innovation, R&D investment and technological iteration will promote the formation of an enterprise ecology of "strong and strong".

the 5G era has arrived, but what is the post-5g era? In fact, there are experiences in this area in daily life, such as the Internet of Things, as we know VR/AR, and the most fundamental thing is to enhance the consumer experience through technical means. Combined with the application of 5G technology, the humanized experience brought by the core technology of technology consumer goods is what we call the post-5G era. The market among them is immeasurable, which is a brand-new era and an era of concentrated technology.

China's automobile industry is very large, and its industrial fields are vast, and the investment value of each sub-sector is worth exploring. Moreover, new energy vehicles have policy-oriented blessings. In the Development Plan of New Energy Automobile Industry (221-235), it is clearly stated that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles should reach 2% by 225. However, the current penetration rate is only 4.3%, which still has great market development space. It is worth mentioning that China's new energy automobile industry has technical and product advantages in the main core links, and the voice of some leading companies in the world is constantly improving, such as the midstream industrial chain of negative electrode, ternary positive electrode, electrolyte and iron-lithium positive electrode. If high-yield enterprises in different industrial chains can reach more than 2% share, it will be an inestimable market structure.

At present, the current situation of asset allocation in China is that the real estate industry has precipitated a high proportion of wealth of Chinese residents for many years, and the proportion of financial assets including equity assets is low. However, as far as the general tone of "housing and not speculating" is concerned, the real estate industry is under certain pressure. In the future, with the promotion of policies and the bank's financial management, residents' assets are expected to gradually transfer to the financial market, and accordingly, residents' investment awareness in the financial market will be further strengthened.

The future is an era of innovation, technology, consumption and capital.

221 will be a year of stability! Investment must be far-reaching, and the horizon should be placed on the future.

risk warning: the contents of this material do not constitute any investment advice. The opinions and judgments in the materials only represent the current analysis of Soochow Fund, and Soochow Fund does not guarantee that the opinions and judgments will not be adjusted or changed. Investment is risky, so choose carefully. Investors bear the risks and consequences of any investment behavior.