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The reason why the forest garden is optimistic about arowana
First of all, as far as the company is concerned, Arowana has ranked first in the market share of grain, oil and rice, forming an oligopoly with COFCO and Lu Hua; Secondly, although the company's profitability is weak, it has formed a competitive barrier with low gross profit margin, which can not only discourage potential entrants, but also make it difficult for existing competitors to achieve counterattack; Third, grain and oil are related to the mouth, the market demand will not die out, and the company's life cycle is long.

Moreover, among the top ten tradable shareholders, Lin Yuan's fund occupies three seats, but the proportion in the fund is not high. More importantly, as Lin Yuan said, "If you buy it, you will get three to five years. Don't tell me if you lose money. " What does this mean? Longevity In other words, different positions may lead to different conclusions.

Why did the arowana, known as "oil grass", suddenly lose its fragrance?

From the company's point of view

Lack of profitability and growth

On the one hand, due to the sharp rise in raw material costs, although Arowana raised the prices of some products, it was still not enough to offset the impact of rising raw material costs, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin; On the other hand, in the first half of this year, the company's management expenses and sales expenses were 65.438+06 billion yuan and 4.395 billion yuan, respectively, up by 654.38+04. 17% and 24.93% year-on-year.

In other words, in addition to the rising cost of raw materials, the substantial increase in other costs is also an important driver of the decline in net profit.

From this, we can sum up the reasons for the company's lack of profitability:

First, compared with soy sauce, rice flour oil is more colorful as a necessity. Although commodity prices are not government-guided prices, the price increase space is relatively limited because it involves the national economy and people's livelihood;

Second, because the cost of raw materials accounts for nearly 90% of the main business cost, the price fluctuation of agricultural products represented by soybeans will have a great impact on the gross profit margin of products.

Thirdly, unlike soy sauce, rice flour oil has no obvious product difference, so it is difficult to form product loyalty and brand premium in taste. Because the brand influence is not enough, the expenses including marketing expenses cannot be reduced.

During the period of 2017-2021h1,the company's net interest rates were 3.5%, 3.3%, 3.37 and 3.22% respectively, which remained at a low level all the time, which meant that the profitability of this industry was far less than that of liquor and soy sauce enterprises like Haitian Ye Wei.

Look at the growth of the company.

From 20 17 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of the company's operating income and net profit will be 8.9% and 6.2% respectively. Whether it is operating income or net profit, the compound annual growth rate in the past four years has not reached double digits.