Lead is a metal element, which can be used as a material for resisting sulfuric acid corrosion, gamma rays and batteries. Its alloy can be used as type, bearing, cable sheath and so on. , can also be used as the shot put of sports equipment. Lead futures is a commodity futures contract based on the standardized characteristics of lead and futures contracts.
Lead futures have been approved by the State Council and China Securities Regulatory Commission! It was listed on the Shanghai Commodity Exchange on Thursday, 201/kloc-0. The listing of lead futures is of great significance, because since then, four kinds of nonferrous metals, namely copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, have landed in China futures market, and other varieties can hedge their risks by comparing their prices with these four kinds. After the listing of lead futures, investors need to pay attention to the relationship between supply and demand, monetary funds, information supply and demand, emergencies, positions, stylized transactions and so on. In the past, lead products were bought and sold by enterprises in the lead industry, but with the listing of lead futures, some people who are not engaged in the lead industry will enter the industry as investors, so the fluctuation range of lead prices may increase. On the other hand, the purpose of listing lead futures itself is to let enterprises use futures tools to do hedging work. In the past, lead ore imported by smelting enterprises always had a delivery period of one to two months. Enterprises buy ore at the current market price, but after one or two months, the market price may fall. With futures, enterprises can sell lead products when buying ore and lock in profits. ()
Two. Lead futures exchange and trading code
Lead Futures Exchange: Shanghai Futures Exchange, trading code: PB.
Three, lead futures standard contract
4. What are the influencing factors of lead futures price?
1, supply and demand factors
According to the principle of microeconomics, when the supply of a commodity exceeds the demand, its price falls, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease, so price and supply and demand are interactive. An important indicator reflecting the relationship between supply and demand is inventory. The inventory of lead is divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory. Declared inventory, also known as "explicit inventory", refers to the inventory of the exchange. Unreported inventory, also known as "hidden inventory", refers to the inventory held by manufacturers, traders and consumers all over the world. Because these inventories are published irregularly, it is difficult to make statistics, so stock exchange inventories are generally used to measure inventory changes.
2. International and domestic economic development
Lead is an important non-ferrous metal, and its consumption is highly related to economic development. When the economy of a country or region develops rapidly, the consumption of lead will also increase simultaneously. Similarly, economic recession will lead to a decline in lead consumption in some industries, which will lead to lead price fluctuations. When analyzing macro-economy, two indicators are very important, one is economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is industrial production growth rate.
3. The prosperity of downstream industries
Lead is mainly used in lead-acid batteries, which are mainly used in automobiles, communication power supplies, electric bicycles, etc., so the downstream demand industries of lead are relatively concentrated, and the prosperity of these industries directly affects the consumption of lead. By analyzing the changes of these downstream industries, we can have a comprehensive grasp of lead consumption.
4. Import and export policies
Import and export policy, especially tariff policy, is an important means to control the import and export volume of a certain commodity and balance domestic supply and demand by adjusting the import and export cost of commodities. Due to the rapid growth of domestic demand and the increasingly prominent resource bottleneck, the state does not encourage the export of smelting products with high energy consumption. Since 2006, China has successively reduced or cancelled export tax rebates for many products, even increased export tariffs, and cancelled preferential policies for processing with supplied materials. The increase in export costs has effectively curbed exports. In June 2004, 65438+ 10/,the export tax rebate of refined lead in China was reduced from 1 5% to13%; From September 15, 2006, the export tax rebate for refined lead was cancelled, and the export tax rebate for lead materials was reduced to 8%; From July 1 2007, the export tax rebate for lead materials and lead products was reduced to 5%; From July 20 15 10, the export tax rebate for lead materials and lead products will be cancelled.
The change of China's trade policy is obviously reflected in the export of refined lead. In 2006, the trade policy stipulated to cancel the export tax rebate of refined lead, and before the implementation, a large amount of refined lead was exported centrally, which made the export volume reach a record high that year. Exports fell sharply in 2007. In 2009, supported by the price comparison at home and abroad, the import volume of refined lead increased substantially, exceeding the export volume, and China became a net importer of refined lead for the first time.
5. The trading direction of the fund.
Although the fund industry has a long history, it didn't flourish until the 1990s. At the same time, the fund's participation in commodity futures trading has also greatly improved. Judging from the evolution of the commodity market in the past decade, capital has played a role in fueling many big markets.
Funds are large and small, and their operation methods are quite different. Generally speaking, funds can be divided into two categories. One is macro funds, such as arbitrage funds, which are large in scale, ranging from several billion dollars to tens of billions of dollars, and are mainly used for strategic long-term investments. The other is short-term fund, which is managed by CTA (commodity trading consultant). The scale is relatively small, generally around $654.38 billion, and short-term operation is carried out through technical analysis, so it is also called technology fund.
Because the fund has a deeper understanding of macro fundamentals, understanding the trend of the fund is also the key to grasping the market. Judging from the trend of commodity market in recent years, capital is the great driving force behind the rapid and sharp rise.
6. Production cost of lead
Production cost is the basis of measuring commodity price level. Different mines and smelting enterprises calculate the production cost of lead differently. The most common economic analysis is to adopt "cash flow guarantee cost", which decreases with the increase of by-product value. In the lead smelting process, the by-product silver output is more, so the price change of silver also affects the lead production cost.
Five, lead futures easy to make mistakes
1 contrarian.
Most successful traders don't stay in the loss position for long and spend too much money. They will set a strict protective stop loss. Once they touch this point, they will immediately cut the meat and then transfer the funds to another potentially profitable transaction. Investors who stay in the loss position for a long time and hope to turn losses into profits in an instant are often doomed to failure. Usually people like to average the expected annualized expected income or cost, just when the price falls and the bulls are long.
The experience of lead futures market shows that this is a bad idea and very dangerous.
Lead trading in 2 futures trading days
It is also wrong to conduct multiple transactions at the same time, especially when there is a large-scale loss. If trading losses accumulate, it's time to clear the position, even if you think that doing other new transactions can make up for the losses caused by previous transactions. Being a successful futures trader requires concentration and sensitivity. It is absolutely wrong to do too many things at the same time.
Always look for reasons from yourself.
Don't blame your broker or others when you make a loss-making transaction or keep losing money. You are the one who decides whether your transaction is successful or not. If you feel that you can't strictly control your trading, you might as well find out the reasons for this feeling. You should change immediately and strictly control the fate of your transaction.
4 lack of principle and patience
Failed transactions often have the same characteristics, and the importance of patience and principle to successful transactions has almost become a cliche in futures trading. A typical trend trader will trade according to the trend and observe the market patiently to see if it will last. They often have unexpectedly huge profits. Don't trade for the sake of trading, and don't trade for the sake of change-wait patiently for an excellent trading opportunity, then act cautiously and seize the opportunity to make a profit-the market is the market, which can't be replaced by anyone, and no one can force it.
No action plan.
If a detailed action plan is not made before the transaction is implemented, then traders have no clear and specific understanding of when and where to quit the transaction, how much they can lose or how much they can earn. This kind of transaction plays with the heartbeat, can only follow the feeling, and often leads to complete failure. A tutor once gave me the following investment motto: "All fools know how to enter the market, but only the real wise know how to exit the market."
6 Expectations are too high, and there is no stop-loss and profit-taking target.
If traders expect to get rid of the basic work in the initial stage and fly to the sky by a few very successful transactions, usually the cruel reality will crush their wishes. In all research fields, success requires hard work, extraordinary perseverance and talent, and futures trading is no exception. Investing in futures is not easy. The so-called futures trading is a shortcut to get rich overnight, but it is a beautiful lie woven by people with ulterior motives. Before becoming a successful full-time trader in your dream, you should try to become a successful part-time trader.
6 improper stop loss measures for lead futures
The use of stop-loss measures in futures trading can ensure that investors can clearly control the risk limit of funds in specific transactions and confirm the loss of transactions. Protective stop loss is a good trading tool, but it is not perfect. The price fluctuation limit may just exceed the protective stop loss point. The large fluctuation of commodity market highlights the importance of using protective stop-loss measures. Price fluctuation is a fact that all futures traders must face and consider. All investors must understand that not every protective stop loss action is correct, and plans should be made in the opposite direction accordingly. Remember, there is no perfect way to trade futures.
7 try to reach the pole
Human nature likes to buy low and sell high or sell high and buy low. Unfortunately, the futures market has proved that this is not a means of profit at all. Investors trying to find the top and bottom often go against the trend, making buying high and selling low a harmful habit.
8 One-sided analysis of lead futures market
We can understand the market trend of lead futures by observing the daily chart, but the monthly chart and weekly chart of lead futures can provide different observation angles from the weekly chart and daily chart. When planning a transaction, get comprehensive information and breakthrough points from the long-term trend chart. From the spot market and fundamentals, observing the long-term trend of steel futures can also ensure a comprehensive understanding of what is happening in the steel futures market. Failure to understand and track the key basic knowledge and information in the market will lead investors to become frogs in the well.
Lead futures trading should keep an eye on all directions and listen to all directions, not one leaf blocking the eye. Refer to the above common mistakes and solutions, hoping to give investors some enlightenment.