On Thursday, the three major indexes of A shares opened lower and went lower, and fell sharply in intraday trading. The total turnover of the two cities was 823 billion yuan; The net selling amount of northbound funds is 65.438+04.624 billion yuan. Disk observation: almost all the plates in the two cities turn green, only the coal plate is slightly red; Digital currency, tourism, information security and other sectors were among the top losers. At the close: the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.78% to 3,394.25 points; The Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.77% to 13398.84 points; The GEM index fell 3.25% to 2,906.76 points.

market outlook

Today, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 3,400 points, falling below the previous low of 3,394 points. Individual stocks in the sector showed a general downward trend, market panic spread again, and funds from the north also flowed out sharply. This is mainly because investors are increasingly worried about the downward pressure on the (global) economy this year and the tightening of liquidity after the (global) monetary policy shift. Since the beginning of the year, the yield of American bonds has been rising continuously, which has an inevitable impact on the global capital market. In particular, Powell's "hawkish" remarks after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this morning made the already fragile nerves in the capital market worse. In China, superimposed on the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, the pre-holiday fund hedging effect is amplified.

However, it is worth noting that if you want to transfer funds before the holiday, today is the last day to sell stocks; In other words, the selling pressure tomorrow will be much less than today. But the more crucial information is that many fund companies have announced their purchases and supported the market with real money; According to incomplete statistics, the self-purchase amount of fund companies has exceeded 654.38 billion yuan this year (including published but not yet implemented); The first month of 2022 has not yet ended, and such self-purchase amount has been at the highest level in the same period of history; Of course, we can't say that the self-purchase of fund companies means that the market has reached a stage low, but under this market, the large-scale self-purchase of public offering industry shows the reasonable judgment of fund companies on the current subscription and their confidence in the future market.

In the long run, the economic cycles between China and the United States have begun to show a high degree of asynchronization, and China and the United States have also experienced completely opposite differentiation in phased monetary policies; However, it takes a process for the market to adapt to this "policy contradiction", especially in an environment where short-term sentiment has been obviously biased towards negative, and the risk of dollar tightening releasing pressure cannot be underestimated.

Operation strategy

There may be an oversold rebound on the last day before the festival, but we still suggest keeping the "watch more and move less" mentioned many times this week, waiting for the release of emotions and the clarity of news after the year; In the short and medium term, it is biased towards the configuration of "steady growth (large financial infrastructure)".

Zhao, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, has the practice certificate number S02606 140600 14.