A famous American magazine mentioned that the experience and lessons brought by the stock market rebound are very valuable, because it will be of great use when we usher in the next round of bull market. Therefore, it is very necessary to study the signs of stock market rebound.
First, the bear market is related to the economic recession, but it almost always ends in the middle of the economic recession. The stock market is the so-called discount mechanism, and the stock price indicates the future. The stock market seems to have bottomed out three to six months before the economy.
Second, when the stock market becomes more pessimistic, it will rebound. When the US stock market bottomed out in March this year, all kinds of economic data were very bad. A survey conducted by the American Association of Individual Investors at that time found that 70% investors were pessimistic about the future.
Third, pay attention to bear market supporters and turn to bull market. For example, Douglas Kass, a hedge fund manager, said in early March this year that the valuation level of the market was very favorable. But on September 29th, Cass withdrew his optimistic expectation, saying that the market had reached the target price he expected in March.
Fourth, don't underestimate the intervention ability of management. In the 1930s, the unemployment rate in the United States exceeded 25%, and policy makers learned from the last Great Depression.
Fifth, don't attach too much importance to company income, because they always lag behind the stock market. Jim Stanko, the investment manager, said, "One of the most valuable historical experiences is that in a new bull market, the expected annualized expected return forecast for the first June and 65438+February was completely ignored."
Sixth, once investors decide to enter the market, don't wait for a callback. History shows that, on average, the callback of 10% often appears 285 days after the bull market starts, which is based on the research of Minneapolis Investment Group and a research report of an asset management company.
Seventh, the biggest decline is often the first to rise, at least at first. Small-cap stocks with poor performance are often the most vulnerable in the decline, but they are usually in the leading position when the bull market starts.