overview of 5G industry
I. overview of 5g
5G is the fifth generation mobile phone mobile communication standard, also known as the fifth generation mobile communication technology. At present, 5G technology is being implemented, and the download speed is expected to reach 1.25 GB/s. Different from 2G, 3G and 4G, 5G is the evolution of existing wireless access technologies (including 2G, 3G, 4G and WiFi), and the general name of some new integrated solutions of supplementary wireless access technologies. The three major application scenarios of 5G are eMBB, uRLLC and mMTC.
second, the development history and macro-environment analysis of 5G industry
(I) the development history of 1G-5G industry
in p>198S, the 1G network was born in Chicago, USA. 1G network can only be used for voice transmission, which is not only slow but also unstable. In the 199S, people entered the 2G era, and the speed was much faster, so they could send short messages online. In the 2S, 3G became popular, and the data transmission capacity was significantly improved, with a peak rate of 2Mbps to tens of Mbps, supporting mobile multimedia services such as video telephony. Entering the 21S, it is still a popular 4G network with a peak rate of 1Mbps to 1Gbps. Compared with 4G technology, 5G will provide broadband, millisecond delay and ultra-high density connection with a brand-new network architecture, achieving a new leap in network performance and opening a new era of the Internet of Everything.
(II) Macro-environment analysis of the 5G industry
1. Policy support analysis
Source: Organized by Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute
2. Technology promotion analysis
Breakthroughs have been made in 5G technology at home and abroad, such as millimeter wave, unmanned vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles' autonomous driving, key application chips and access units. Compared with foreign countries, China is more mature in 5G layout.
China's scheme was selected as the 5G standard
On November 17th, 216, the 87th meeting of 3GPP (3rd generation partnership project, similar to the International Telecommunication Standardization Organization) discussed the 5G short code scheme. In the end, Huawei's scheme won and China's scheme was selected as the 5G standard.
5G coding technology
Behind the three coding candidate technologies of 5G is the real war of Three Kingdoms: the United States takes Qualcomm as the leader to promote LDPC；; France mainly promotes Turbo2.；; And Polar code in China. Among them, Polar Code won the eMBB scene coding scheme of 5G control channel, and LDPC became the uplink and downlink short code scheme of data channel.
Polar code technology
Polar code is a new star in the coding field. China company has a good understanding of the potential of Polar code, and has invested a lot of R&D power in in-depth research, evaluation and optimization of its application scheme in 5G, making a breakthrough in transmission performance. Huawei has invested heavily in the research of Polar code technology, and China Mobile and China Institute of Information and Communication have done a lot of work in the evaluation and international standardization of Polar code technology.
III. Estimated contribution of 5G industry to economic and social development
(I) Contribution of 5G to economic output
In p>23, the direct output and indirect output driven by 5G will reach 6.3 trillion yuan and 1.6 trillion yuan respectively. In terms of direct output, according to the official commercialization of 5G in 22, it is estimated that it will drive about 484 billion yuan of direct output in that year. In terms of indirect output, in 22, 225 and 23, 5G will drive 1.2 trillion, 6.3 trillion and 1.6 trillion respectively.
Direct and indirect economic output of 5G (1 million yuan), data source: China Institute of Communications
(II) Contribution of 5G to economic added value
In p>23, it is estimated that the direct contribution of 5G to economic added value will exceed 2.9 trillion yuan, and the contribution rate to GDP growth in that year will reach 5.8%, which mainly comes from users' expenditure on purchasing mobile Internet information services, investment in network equipment in various vertical industries and traffic consumption expenditure. In 23, the GDP indirectly driven by 5G will further increase to 3.6 trillion yuan.
the direct and indirect economic added value contribution of p>5G (trillion yuan), data source: China Institute of Communications
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development status of 5G industry
I. development status of international 5G industry
(I) proportion of 5G patents in major countries
According to statistics of Netscribes, after 215, with the high-frequency R&D investment of Huawei and ZTE, China has become the first in the world in the proportion of patents in the 5G patent pool, accounting for 32%, leading 5g technology and patents. The proportion of 5G patents in major countries is shown in the following figure:
Data sources: Netscribes, Essence Securities, and Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute
(II) Global 5G layout
At present, 56 countries in the world have begun to deploy 5G networks, among which 25 countries have chosen to cooperate with Huawei, far ahead of competitors Ericsson and Nokia. Huawei has occupied nearly half of the global market with its strong patented technology and excellent services.
in Asia, except Japan and south Korea, the middle east basically cooperates with Huawei. Countries in Southeast Asia are also bidding intensively; In the European market, Huawei has signed cooperation agreements with many countries. It is related to the fact that operators in many countries use Huawei equipment in the construction of 4g networks. In the American market, it can be said that Ericsson and Nokia dominate the world. After all, the United States, Australia and New Zealand have explicitly rejected Huawei. Only Canada has not given a clear answer.
source: compiled by zhongchuang industrial research institute
(iii) 5G spectrum plans of major countries
at present, major countries have completed the allocation of low-band spectrum, and are committed to the planning, construction and auction of mid-band and high-band spectrum. In the next few years, due to the comprehensive coverage of 5G technology and the rich application scenarios, the research and development of high-frequency spectrum and the allocation of middle and high-frequency spectrum will become one of the focus areas of 5G industry.
1. USA
1) Current situation of spectrum allocation
2)5G spectrum plan
High frequency band
In July p>216, FCC announced new rules for using frequency bands above 24GHz for 5G; In November 217, the FCC added ***17MHz bandwidth to promote the deployment of 5G networks, including 7MHz bandwidth in the 24GHz band and 1GHz bandwidth in the 47GHz band; In March 218, the FCC decided to auction the 28GHz band on November 14, 218, followed by the 24GHz band auction.
intermediate frequency band
FCC is releasing CBRS (Citizens Broadband Radio Service) in the frequency band of 355–37 MHz for * * * to enjoy mobile broadband. In August, 217, FCC released a consultation on expanding the flexible use of three intermediate frequency bands: 3.7-4.2GHz, 5.925-6.425GHz and 6.425-7.125GHz. In February 218, the FCC indicated that it would formulate measures for commercial terrestrial mobile networks in the 3.7-4.2GHz band within a few months.
2. Japan
1) Current situation of spectrum allocation
2)5G spectrum plan
Japan plans to commercialize 5G during the 22 Tokyo Olympic Games, and its 5G spectrum plan is as follows:
It plans to allocate 1.7 GHz (171–175/181–185 MHz), 2.3 GHz (23 MHz). In March 218, the draft rules for the 1.7GHz and 3.4-3.48GHz bands were released.
it is planned to allocate 3.6-4.2GHz and 4.4-4.9GHz bands in March 219.
It is planned to allocate the 5G millimeter wave band of 27.5-29.5GHz in March 219, and it is proposed that the millimeter wave band should be consistent with that of the United States and South Korea.
3. South Korea
1) Current situation of spectrum allocation
2)5G spectrum plan
The Ministry of Science, Technology, Information and Communication (MSIT) of Korea released the National Broadband/Spectrum Plan (K-ICT) in early 217, proposing to allocate at least 13MHz bandwidth bands to 5G by 218, including 3.4-3.7GHz bands and 27.5.
(IV) Global Operator's 5G Construction Plan
The global operator's 5G construction plan is basically concentrated from the end of 219 to 22, and most countries expect to realize the full use of 5G services around 22. China, the United States, Japan, Britain, South Korea and other important countries in the research and development of 5G-related technologies are expected to be at the forefront, so as to achieve full coverage of 5G technology at the earliest. The details of the construction planning of each operator are shown in the following table:
Source: official website, Essence Securities and Zhongchuang Industrial Research Institute.