In accordance with the provisions of China's social insurance law, according to the average wage increase and price increase of employees, the level of basic old-age insurance benefits will be raised in a timely manner. Judging from the performance of economic development, average wage increase of employees and price increase, it is optimistic and in a state of growth at present.
The most important thing is that the income and expenditure of pension funds are guaranteed. Recently, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security responded to the issue of the income and expenditure of the pension fund that everyone is most concerned about, saying that there is a solid material foundation for the timely and full payment of pensions. In 20021year, the income of the basic endowment insurance fund for enterprise employees was 4.4 trillion yuan, and the fund expenditure was 4. 1 trillion yuan. The balance of income and expenditure in the current period is generally balanced, with a slight balance. Since the beginning of this year, the fund has remained stable. At the same time, the accumulated balance of the basic old-age insurance fund for enterprise employees in the current period is 5 1 trillion yuan, which has strong guarantee ability.
All kinds of optimistic signs give everyone a reassurance. In 2023, employee pensions will continue to rise, achieving a sustained growth of 19.
If you want to know whether the increase amount can be higher than this year, you need to know two pieces of information, one is the overall increase next year, and the other is the adjustment plan in various places.
Looking back at the increase of pensions in the past 18 years, the overall trend is decreasing year by year. At first, the increase was as high as 10%, but in recent years, the increase has been decreasing year by year, from 5% in 20 18-2020 to 4.5% in 202 1 year, and then this year. There are many reasons for the decline in the increase, such as the economy, wages and prices changing from rapid growth to steady growth; The problem of aging population has intensified, and the payment pressure of pension funds has increased; After years of upward adjustment, pensions have generally reached a higher level. At present, the per capita pension is about 3,500 yuan, and most retirees can meet the basic needs of retirement. At present, the overall increase in pensions next year will not increase with great probability. It is good to maintain 4%, which is expected to be around 3.5%. Therefore, from the perspective of the increase, it is difficult for retirees to increase the amount next year, which is higher than this year. However, the overall increase can not determine the increase of all retirees, but also depends on the specific adjustment plan.
In the adjustment scheme, pension adjustment generally adopts three ways: quota adjustment, hook adjustment and tilt adjustment. The quota adjustment is to increase the same amount of money for retirees in the same area; The linked adjustment is linked to the basic pension and the payment period respectively, which embodies the incentive principles of "more work and more pay" and "more pay"; The tilt adjustment is to take care of the elderly, retirees from hard and remote areas, retired cadres from enterprises and other groups, and increase an extra pension. Therefore, the amount of pension that retirees can increase is mainly affected by the area where retirees are located, the payment period, the basic pension, age and other factors. After careful calculation, we found that retirees are divided into two categories, and the increase of pensions next year is expected to be higher than this year.
The first category is retirees with long payment period and high basic pension. With the aging of the population, the peak of retirement is coming, the pressure of pension fund payment is increasing, and the sustainable development of pension insurance system is facing challenges. So the country is also taking various measures to solve this problem at the same time. When adjusting the pension, it is very important to strengthen the incentive function of "overpaying for more" and "overpaying for more for a long time". Giving more pensions to retirees who paid more when they were young will effectively encourage young workers who pay now, so that they can see that the more they pay, the more they get, so that more people can improve their payment grades and extend their payment years, thus strengthening their pensions.
This year's pension adjustment, many places have increased the proportion of basic pension adjustment, and it is expected that this trend will not change next year. Therefore, for retirees with long payment period and high basic pension, the increase next year is expected to be higher than this year.
The second category is retirees who have just reached the age threshold of the elderly or meet the special age adjustment next year. At present, the inclined age threshold for the elderly in most areas is 70 years old the year before. In other words, when the pension is adjusted next year, retirees who have reached the age of 70 this year, that is, retirees born in 1952, can participate in the elderly tilt. If they increase a sum of money than this year, the probability of increase will be higher than this year.
In addition, some areas will give a lot of extra pensions to retirees who have just reached a certain age. For example, this year, Shanghai will increase 65,438+per person per month for those who are 60 years old (196 1 born) and those who are 65 years old (1956 born). According to the continuity of the policy, Shanghai will probably keep this adjustment mode unchanged next year. Then retirees who meet the corresponding conditions can increase their pensions a lot, directly exceeding this year's increase.
In summary, the high probability of pensions will continue to rise in 2023. Can the increase of retirees be higher than this year? Mainly depends on the overall increase and adjustment plan. Judging from the overall increase, it is difficult to have a higher increase than last year. In terms of adjustment plan, retirees with long payment period and high basic pension, as well as retirees who have just reached the age threshold of the elderly or meet special age adjustment next year, are expected to increase more than this year.