Main listed companies in the industry: Mu Yuan (2714), Zhengbang Technology (2157), Wenshi (3498), New Hope (876), etc.

the core data of this paper: the scale of live pigs and their slaughter, the scale of fertile sows, the per capita pork consumption, the pork consumption and its proportion in the total meat consumption, and the market size of the pig breeding industry.

overview of the industry

1. Definition

Pigs refer to breeding pigs, commercial pigs, piglets, etc. Pig breeding is a process that goes through a series of breeding and reproduction, such as breeding pigs and fattening piglets, until it reaches commercial pigs.

From the point of pig breeding cycle, it usually takes 18 months from newborn sow to pig slaughter. Sows are generally fattened for 4 months after birth to become reserve sows, and reserve sows are fattened for 4 months to become fertile sows. Then, the sow can give birth to piglets in 4 months of pregnancy, and the piglets can be slaughtered after being fattened for 6 months to become pigs.

2. Analysis of industrial chain

From the point of view of pig breeding industrial chain, the upstream is mainly composed of pig feed and veterinary drugs for pigs, and the pig breeding industry is in the middle of the industrial chain, while the downstream is mainly composed of livestock slaughtering industry and meat processing industry, and the final products flow to the end consumer market.

At present, China pig feed production enterprises have new hope, Haida Group, etc. Veterinary drug production enterprises for pigs include Zhongmu, Ruipu Bio, etc. The pig breeding industry includes Mu Yuan, Zhengbang Technology and Wenshi, and the slaughtering and meat processing enterprises include Yurun Food, Shuanghui Development and Longda Food.

Due to the periodic fluctuation of pig price, the gross profit margin and net interest rate of pig breeding enterprises in the middle reaches, represented by Mu Yuan, Wenshi and New Hope, fluctuate greatly. The average gross profit margin and net profit margin of the upstream veterinary drug industry are between 25%-65% and 9%-25% respectively, and its profitability is higher than that of the upstream feed industry as a whole. The downstream slaughter industry is obviously influenced by the pig breeding industry in the middle reaches. The average gross profit rate and net profit rate are between 7%-1% and -5%-5% respectively, and its profitability is lower than that of the downstream meat products industry as a whole.

industry development course: the industry is in a period of rapid development

before p>1978, pork production was underdeveloped and pork supply was insufficient. The annual output of pork in China is low, which leads to the implementation of a quota system for pork supply to the public, with pork coupons as distribution vouchers. At that time, pork production depended on thousands of households in rural areas (small farmers and subsistence agriculture), and some wastes such as grass, roughage and bran residue were the main feeds. The main breeds are Yorkshire terrier, Berkshire terrier and Soviet white dog.

after the reform and opening up in 198s, large-scale industrialized pork production appeared. Some pork production enterprises in Guangdong Province set up Sino-foreign joint ventures, introduced complete sets of equipment and technology from Europe and America, and created an industrial pork production system. With the implementation of urban food bases and vegetable basket projects in the late 198s, many cities have established large-scale industrialized pork production systems, and pork production departments have developed rapidly. In 1985, the first pig feed standard was issued in China, and compound feed, premix and feed additives were widely used in pig diets. At the same time, more lean meat varieties such as Danish Landrace, Yorkshire in England and Duroc in America were imported. However, during this period, most producers contributed 5 slaughtered pigs every year. At the same time, cheap fertilizer subsidized by the government can be used to increase crop yield and replace pig manure and mud. The lack of complex commercial technology for transporting and treating animal manure has also led to the abandonment of the use of manure in crop production. On the contrary, feces and mud are increasingly being discharged and buried. Therefore, the modernization of pig industry and the supply of cheap fertilizer promote the decoupling between pig production and crop production.

with the expansion of large-scale pork production, pork production is developing in the direction of intensification, modernization and standardization. Modern breeding techniques, such as the application of molecular tools in breeding and special feed products such as milk powder replacement, have been widely used to promote the development of pork production. However, with the industrialized pork production, a series of problems have emerged, such as the waste of feed resources, the rapid spread of infectious diseases, the abuse of antibiotics, food safety and so on. In particular, ignoring the environmental pollution caused by pig manure and mud has become a major threat to sustainable pig raising and crop production systems. At the same time, it also stimulated the re-exploration of fecal treatment and recycling technology.

industry policy background: new development opportunities are ushered in under the policy blessing

with the continuous development of economy and the increasing improvement of people's living standards, the scale of meat market and the coverage of consumer groups are constantly expanding. The state has successively issued a number of policies, which have played an important role in the healthy and orderly development of the pig breeding industry. The specific policies are as follows:

Current situation of industry development

1. The situation of pig production in China has gradually improved

As a big agricultural country with a long history of pig raising, pig production is an important part of agriculture in China. From 215 to 218, the annual slaughter of pigs was about 7 million. Due to the superposition of African swine fever epidemic, "pig cycle" and the ban on raising in some areas, the number of live pigs in China decreased to a great extent in 219. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, there were 31.41 million live pigs in stock and 544.19 million live pigs in slaughter in 219. After the outbreak of African swine fever, the state issued a release to promote the recovery of pig production. In 221, the number of live pigs in China was 449.22 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.51%; 671.28 million heads were slaughtered, a year-on-year increase of 27.37%. In 222, by the end of the first half of the year, the number of live pigs in China was 43.57 million.

According to the Implementation Plan of Pig Productivity Regulation (Provisional), the normal number of fertile sows in China is 41 million, and the range of 95%-15% of the normal number (including 95% and 15% thresholds) is a green area, which indicates that the productivity fluctuates normally. The range of 9%-95% and 15%-11% (including 9% and 11% critical values) of fertile sows is yellow, indicating that the productivity fluctuates greatly (decreases/increases); The red area is where the stock of fertile sows is lower than 9% of the normal stock or higher than 11% of the normal stock, indicating excessive fluctuation (decrease/increase) of productivity.

By the end of 221, there were 43.29 million fertile sows in China, accounting for 15.59% of the normal population. The stock of fertile sows is in the range of 15%-11% of the normal stock, and the productivity of fertile sows still needs to be reduced.

2. The scale of pig breeding in China has been continuously improved

In p>221, the scale of pig breeding in China has been continuously improved, and large-scale breeding (sows in stock >; The proportion of 5 heads reached 74.9%. (based on the number of sows on hand). In the future, the country will still take the development of standardized scale breeding as an important measure to promote the modern pig industry; At the same time, large-scale farming enterprises actively explore competitive farming modes, such as "company+farmer" represented by Wen's family and "self-propagating and autotrophic factory farming" represented by Mu Yuan. Under the dual guidance of the government and enterprises, the scale of pig breeding in China will be further improved.

3. Affected by "African swine fever", the per capita pork consumption in China fluctuated and declined

Pork accounts for the largest proportion of meat consumption in China, and the annual demand is relatively stable. Before 217, China's annual per capita pork consumption was about 3 kg/person. Affected by African swine fever in 218, the per capita consumption was disturbed, and it dropped to 22.72kg/person in 22. In 221, the per capita pork consumption in China increased slightly, rising to 23.68kg/person.

4. The pork consumption and its proportion in the total meat consumption in China fluctuated

From 214 to 22, the pork consumption and its proportion in the total meat consumption in China showed a downward trend as a whole. Affected by African swine fever in 218, the price of pork rose sharply, which also affected consumers' trust in the quality of pork. In 22, the pork consumption and its proportion in the total meat consumption in China decreased to 39.94%. In 221, the pork consumption and its proportion in the total meat consumption in China showed a certain upward trend, rising to 46.8%, which was 6.86 percentage points higher than that in 22.

5. The market scale of pig breeding industry in China has always remained above 1 trillion yuan

As the largest producer and consumer of pigs, the market scale of pig breeding industry in China is huge. Here, the amount of live pigs slaughtered * the average weight of live pigs slaughtered * the average price of live pigs is taken as the standard to measure the market size of the industry. Among them, according to the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs is the annual average price of the average price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities, and the average weight of live pigs is calculated according to 12kg/ head. From 216 to 22, the market scale of China's pig breeding industry has always remained above 1 trillion yuan, despite the fluctuations in pig prices and changes in the number of slaughter. In 22, with the sharp rise of pig prices, the market scale of China's pig breeding industry reached 2.16 trillion yuan. In 221, affected by the decline in the price of live pigs, the market size of China's pig breeding industry dropped to 1.63 trillion yuan.

Industry competition pattern: Mu Yuan shares are far ahead in pig slaughter

In terms of pig slaughter, among the 13 listed pig breeding enterprises in China in 221, Mu Yuan shares are far ahead, with 4.263 million pigs, and Zhengbang Technology, Wenshi shares, New Hope and Dabeinong are in the top five, with 14.927 million pigs and 13.21.7 pigs respectively.

From the point of view of the growth rate of pig slaughter, the growth rates of Mu Yuan Stock, Dabeinong, Aonong Bio, Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry and Luoniushan all exceeded 1%, with the year-on-year growth rates of 122.3%, 132.8%, 141.1%, 192.1% and 156.2% respectively.

Industry development prospect and trend forecast

1. Reducing carbon emissions from pig breeding is an important trend of industry development

In order to enhance the independent innovation ability of China's seed industry and effectively prevent and control the epidemic situation of African swine fever, the construction of breeding boar station has become the focus of improving the national or regional breeding system, focusing on establishing a breeding pig breeding system with breeding boar station as the link, improving the * * * sharing mechanism of breeding pig genetic resources, and promoting a new model of joint breeding of breeding pigs. At the same time, African swine fever virus has a wide range of pollution, and its clinical strains are diverse and complex. African swine fever will continue to occur, and the primary task is to eliminate pollution sources and effectively prevent and control it. In addition, under the pressure of national environmental protection policy, reducing carbon emissions from pig breeding, implementing nutrient balance management and controlling odor have become important trends in the future industry development.

2. The market scale of pig breeding industry in China is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan in 227.

On December 14th, 221, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the National Development Plan of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Industry in the Tenth Five-Year Plan, which pointed out that the regional layout and product structure should be optimized, and the two trillion-level industries of pigs and poultry should be focused on, namely, dairy livestock, beef cattle and mutton sheep, special livestock and poultry, and feed. We will implement the overall responsibility for the stable production of pigs and the mayor's responsibility system for the "vegetable basket" to ensure that the self-sufficiency rate of pork is kept at around 95% and the pork production capacity is stable at around 55 million tons. It can be seen that in the next few years, China's domestic pig breeding output will be further improved, so as to improve the domestic pork supply and realize the improvement of pork self-sufficiency rate. Looking ahead, considering the development trend of pig breeding industry in China in recent years and the influence of pig cycle on the industry, it is predicted that the market scale of pig breeding industry in China will fluctuate and rise from 222 to 227, and the market scale of pig breeding industry in China will reach 2.22 trillion yuan by 227.

For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Pig Breeding Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.