Due to the unexpected market demand, the issue price of Xpeng Auto jumped from the initial 1 1 to 15, and the financing scale expanded from 1075 billion to1500 million, exceeding the1/kloc-of Li IPO last month. On the same day, the total market value of Xpeng Motors after closing was about 654.38+0.5 billion US dollars, once again setting a new record for China enterprises to go to the United States for IPO.
Some analysts believe that the timing of listing in Xpeng Auto and Li is very good, because the international market is extremely optimistic about the new energy market in 2020. Recently, the share price of Weilai and Ideal has also risen sharply. As of August 20th, the share price of Weilai Automobile has risen by 239%, with a market value of $65.438+06.322 billion. Li went public for a month, and his share price rose by over 45%, with a market value of 654.38+02.336 billion US dollars.
And their high valuation is somewhat based on the meaning of "big brother" Tesla. At the beginning of the year, Tesla's share price soared after the US stock market plummeted. On August 2 1 day, Tesla's share price stood at the $2,000 mark for the first time, with a P/E ratio as high as 1.066 times. At present, Tesla's total market value has reached 373.374 billion US dollars, making it the most valuable automobile company in the world, and its market value is equivalent to 1.7 Toyota, 8 Ferrari, 14 Ford.
"In all recessions or crises, we find that innovation is often favored by more investors." Katz Wood, the founder of ARKK Fund, which is famous for its heavy Tesla, said. Tesla's high rate of return, coupled with Tucki, Ideality, Weilai and other similar "innovative" Internet car-making enterprises, greatly increased its appeal.
Undoubtedly, the entry of new car-making forces into the US stock market with low threshold is not only to fulfill the promise to investors and continue to find money for enterprises, but also to attract talents. Xpeng Motors said that the proceeds of this IPO will be used for R&D and expanding sales channels, and the rest will be used for general corporate purposes. On August 28th, Weilai Automobile also submitted an additional issuance plan to the American Stock Exchange, raising 654.38+49.7 million US dollars to 654.38+72.2 million US dollars.
However, the capital market is unpredictable and not a stable source of funds. Tesla, which is now sent to Dongfeng, may also be the biggest hidden danger. Some people think that Tesla's market value is more than twice that of Volkswagen Group, but compared with the 65,438+065,438+000 vehicles sold by Volkswagen Group last year, Tesla sold less than 370,000 vehicles last year, and this year's sales are expected to be only about 500,000 vehicles. The gap is hard to understand.
"I really can't explain Tesla." Joel Greenblatt, chief information officer of Gotham Asset Management Company, said that the rise of Tesla is part of the "bubble" in the capital market, and in the current market transactions, many speculative activities have flowed to Tesla.
A set of figures shows a strong sense of danger. According to foreign media reports, more than 60% of Tesla's buying positions since March have come from retail investors, including a large number of new investors, and they are mainly post-90 s and post-00 s, with weak risk management awareness and generally accompanied by a strong "chasing up" mentality; Even many new investors bought Tesla shares with 5-7 times leverage, which boosted the stock price.
Tesla is still fueling this trend. On August 1 1, Tesla announced that it would split the stock 5 into 1, which will take effect on August 3 1. The so-called stock split of 5 1 means that the total value of Tesla shares is unchanged, but the share price is five times cheaper, which means that more retail investors can afford Tesla shares, and their concentrated presence will push its share price up in a short time.
That's why the bears didn't give up even though they lost blood. They believe that although Tesla has strong technological innovation ability, its current share price has far exceeded the value of rational evaluation.
"The real data is inconsistent with Tesla's share price. We believe that once the two match, Tesla will be sold off and push its share price down. " Market research company GLJ? Gordon Johnson, CEO and founder of Research, said.
According to public information, in the past few years, Tesla ranked first in the US stock market, and the short-selling ratio once occupied about 20% of the circulation. In July this year, Tesla became the first stock with a short position exceeding $20 billion.
In the short term, investors may not lose their enthusiasm for Tesla, but fierce competition is about to begin. When electric vehicles of BBA, Volkswagen and Toyota enter the market, they may shift their targets. At that time, Weilai, Ideal and Tucki will hardly be unaffected.
"It's hard to strike while the iron is hot." Car-making is an asset-intensive and long-term industry, and listing will expose the real development of these new forces. For Xpeng Motors, the investment in R&D will increase with the increase of models. If the sales volume cannot be greatly improved, the losses will inevitably increase. In addition, it is not known whether the charging services such as software subscription can meet users' expectations, which will affect the trend of the company's stock. And the same pressure always haunts Wei Lai and his ideal.
We often hear that the market value of a company has skyrocketed or evaporated by hundreds of millions of yuan overnight. In fact, this statement is not accurate-the money didn't go anywhere because it wasn't there.
The market value is neither cash balance nor current profit, but the discount of profits for many years to come, but the future has not yet arrived, just a vision. So the market value is a cloud, and the stock is a zero-sum game. Even if the car has been integrated into too many internet games, it is still a step-by-step industry in essence.
It is worth pondering that although the new forces of car-making often regard Tesla as the "big brother", Xpeng Motors is determined to become Toyota. The reason is self-evident. No matter how high Tesla's market value is, it failed to enter the world's top 500. Profit is the last word.
Text/Yin?
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.