Economic growth is about 9%
20 1 1 year, China's economy is expected to maintain rapid development, with GDP increasing by about 9%. Judging from the three major demands, consumption is expected to continue to grow steadily. Considering the rising prices, the actual growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods may be slightly lower than 20 10. Since 20 10, the rapid growth of foreign trade has exceeded expectations, and the export growth rate of 20 10 may be appropriately lower than 2010. In terms of fixed assets investment, although the peak period of the last round of infrastructure investment has passed, as the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, fixed assets investment will still maintain a growth rate of about 20%.
On the whole, the economic growth rate of 20 1 1 may be affected by the base, showing a trend of low before and then high. The annual growth rate of 20 1 1 is expected to reach about 9%, which is still in a reasonable range of potential economic growth rate.
CPI rose moderately.
Because the vast majority of industrial products are still in a state of oversupply, the economic demand is not obviously overheated, and it is unlikely that hyperinflation will occur in China in 20 1 1 year. However, two major factors determine that the price increase in China in 20 1 1 year may be higher than that in 201year. The first is hiking. As the month-on-month price has been rising continuously in recent months, as of June 1 1, the upward impact of the hikes on the price of 20 1 1 has reached about 4 percentage points. 20 1 1 It is estimated that the cocking is slightly higher than this, giving 2065438+. Second, the factors pushing up the recent price increase have not disappeared, the transmission of imported inflation may continue to appear, the rising domestic labor costs may still push up the prices of agricultural products in a tight balance, and the pressure of cost to push up prices still exists.
Under the prudent monetary policy management and a series of price control measures, the CPI increase of 20 1 1 may be in the range of 4%-5%. 20 1 1 In the fourth quarter, the influence of the hikes will be reduced, and the price increase is likely to slow down.
Active finance focuses on structural adjustment.
In 20 1 1 year, China continued to implement a proactive fiscal policy. As the momentum of economic stabilization continues to emerge, the fiscal deficit of 201/kloc-0 may be reduced to below1000 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of 210500 billion yuan. Considering the expansion of economic stock, it is predicted that deficit ratio will drop to 2%-2.5% in 201year. The focus of proactive fiscal policy is not only to "support" economic growth and make a good start for the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, but also to pay more attention to economic restructuring. The growth rate of new investment in infrastructure construction will slow down, and investment in affordable housing, western development and strategic emerging industries will remain relatively strong.
"Three rates" moved together again.
20 10, China's interest rate, deposit reserve ratio and exchange rate "three rates" have all changed. 20 1 1, the phenomenon of "three rates" moving together may appear again. In order to further curb inflation expectations and alleviate the "negative interest rate" situation, the central bank may raise the deposit and loan interest rates at 20 1 1 in due course. Adjusting the deposit reserve ratio will also play a role in recovering excess liquidity. If necessary, the deposit reserve ratio of 20 1 1 can be raised to about 20%.
China will continue to steadily push forward the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism 20 1 1. Moderate appreciation helps to improve the balance of foreign exchange payments and curb imported inflation. It is estimated that the exchange rate of 20 1 1 RMB may appreciate by about 3%.
The income distribution reform plan was introduced.
In recent years, the income distribution gap in China has widened, and this trend has attracted attention. The adjustment of income distribution is conducive to the adjustment of economic structure, so that more development achievements can benefit people's livelihood. It will be the key to improve the income distribution relationship, increase the proportion of residents' income in national income and increase the proportion of wage income in the initial distribution. 20 1 1 The reform plan of income distribution may be formally introduced, and the specific measures may include raising the wage level of low-and middle-income people, improving the dual control policies of total wages and wage levels in monopoly industries, and strengthening the adjustment of tax on income distribution.
A breakthrough has been made in the reform of "two taxes"
The reform of personal income tax and real estate tax is one of the most concerned topics in society recently. At present, the two tax system reforms are progressing steadily, and 20 1 1 does not rule out a breakthrough. In terms of personal income tax, the current minimum deduction in China is 2000 yuan. In the future, in addition to appropriately increasing this amount, we can also appropriately narrow the tax band, adjust the tax rate, and establish a personal income tax system that combines synthesis and classification.
In terms of property tax, Shanghai and other cities have been actively promoting the pilot work and idling the pilot property tax policy. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's personal real estate will be gradually included in the scope of taxation, and the specific scope of taxation may not involve most social groups at first.
The real estate market is highly integrated
In the future, China will continue to adhere to real estate regulation and increase the construction of affordable housing. Because the effect of price regulation is not obvious, the short-term property market regulation, especially the policy of curbing speculation, will not be relaxed.
20 1 1 It is unlikely that the property market price will rise sharply. After the government tightens monetary credit and strengthens the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing, developers may further reduce prices due to the tight capital chain, and the demand for rigid housing may respond positively to the price reduction. The current high inflation expectations further aggravate the complexity of the property market trend. On the one hand, inflation expectations make residents more willing to invest in real estate, on the other hand, the opening of interest rate channels increases the cost of housing investment.
Regional development planning continued to start.
In the past two years, China has launched a series of regional development plans, which have promoted the economic and social development of relevant regions. In the future, regional planning at the national level will be focused and targeted. Strategically speaking, regional policies will focus on cultivating new growth poles, supporting the development of poor areas and promoting the equalization of basic public services. From a regional perspective, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Sanjiangyuan and other places may launch new regional development plans.
The scale of surplus has been further reduced.
20 10,1-1,China's trade surplus reached 170664 billion US dollars, lower than the same period in 2008 and 2009. The central government proposed 20 1 1 to stabilize expand external demand and expand the import scale. It is predicted that the scale of China's trade surplus will be further reduced in 20 1 1 year, and the role of imports in macroeconomic balance and structural adjustment will be further exerted. Imports in energy conservation, environmental protection, high technology and other fields may accelerate.
Rapid development of strategic emerging industries
Strategic emerging industries such as energy conservation and environmental protection, next-generation information technology, biology, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy, new materials, new energy vehicles and high-speed railways are expected to continue to accelerate development. The added value and investment growth rate of strategic emerging industries will continue to develop rapidly and become new economic growth points.
20 1 1 Separate revitalization and development plans for industries such as new energy and biology are expected to be introduced, and the importance of industries such as energy conservation and environmental protection will continue to be highly valued and emphasized. (Reporter Han Xiaodong)
Anti-inflation or "three-rate" monetary policy needs to be seen while walking.
It is a foregone conclusion that the 20 10 credit exceeds the 7.5 trillion target put forward at the beginning of the year. The central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio six times, and raised the interest rate for the first time three years later ... The real negative interest rate in the "year of rising prices" has been going on for 10 months.
The inflation level next year may be higher than this year, and preventing inflation has become the primary task of short-term macro-control. In the first half of the year, it is not excluded that the reserve ratio, benchmark interest rate and exchange rate are "three rates moving together". However, the uncertainty of the external environment and concerns about domestic economic growth determine that the probability of very strict and rapid tightening of monetary policy is low, and monetary policy may be tightened gradually, while walking and watching. How to strike a balance between "preventing inflation" and "ensuring growth", monetary policy will face unprecedented pressure next year.
The Dilemma of Preventing Inflation and Maintaining Growth
The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting economic structure and managing inflation expectations should be handled more actively and steadily next year, and the overall price level should be stabilized in a more prominent position.
Some institutions predict that the CPI increase may exceed 4% next year, and the highest monthly increase may exceed 5%, showing a trend of high before and low after.
The European and American economies will still have sufficient printing power in the future, and international commodities will have great upward momentum; There is great uncertainty in the weather next year. The rising space of meat price caused by the "pig cycle" and the rising cost of agricultural products caused by the change of China's own labor structure make the prices of agricultural products have room to rise. In addition, factors such as resource monopoly and the introduction of resource tax to promote the return of factor prices will make inflation last for a long time. The "wage-price spiral" caused by rising wages may also become a new driving force for rising prices.
The Central Economic Work Conference clearly decided to implement a prudent monetary policy and grasp the general gate of liquidity in accordance with the requirements of overall stability, moderate adjustment and structural optimization. Under this tone, the monetary and credit environment next year will be "tighter" than this year.
On the other hand, inflation is not caused by overheating, and the requirement of "steady growth" determines that money and credit should not be too tight next year.
First of all, the current external uncertainty has not been eliminated. At present, the foundation of economic recovery is still not solid, and there are still uncertain factors outside, so it is impossible to judge that the economy has entered a normal state.
Liu, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, recently pointed out that the balance sheets of the real economy in developed countries continue to deteriorate. The actual leverage ratio of the financial system is still very high, and its vulnerability is very obvious. In the next 24 months, American and European banks will have nearly $4 trillion in debts due, and government financing guarantees exceeding $ 1 trillion will expire. The improvement of capital supervision requirements may also make banks face new capital gaps. The continuous deterioration of the real estate market may lead to the further expansion of bank bad debts. By then, the risks of bank assets will be further revealed.
Secondly, from the domestic environment, there is still uncertainty about the economic trend next year. Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Essence Securities, believes that the export situation from the fourth quarter of this year to the second quarter of next year is not optimistic. The growth rate of investment next year, especially in the first half of the year, is not optimistic, and a steady slowdown is a high probability event.
In addition, bankers pointed out that a large number of local financing platform loans will gradually enter the repayment period in the early stage, and it is still unknown whether banks can resolve the possible risk of concentrated outbreak of non-performing loans.
While preventing inflation, monetary policy must take into account the requirements of "steady growth", and next year monetary policy will be in a more dilemma.
The surge in hot money restricts interest rate hikes.
20 10 especially in the second half of the year, foreign exchange holdings gradually picked up and became the main channel of liquidity supply, which increased the pressure on the central bank to passively put in the base currency. Under the continuous quantitative easing policy of the United States and Japan and the expectation of RMB appreciation, foreign exchange holdings will continue to grow next year.
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, had previously put forward the "pool" theory. He explained that the typical "pool" is foreign exchange reserves, and the inflow of hot money can be completely hedged, which will not affect the national economy as a whole, but it will not prevent them from making some money individually.
However, can hot money really be completely hedged and recycled into the "pool" without inflationary pressure or constraints on the independence of monetary policy?
In the month of1-1this year, China's foreign exchange holdings increased by 2,864.949 billion yuan. On June 19, the central bank announced "further deepening the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism", which ignited the market's expectation of RMB appreciation. From July to September, foreign exchange holdings increased month by month, from 654.38+070 billion yuan to nearly 300 billion yuan. In June 5438+ 10, China's newly-increased foreign exchange accounted for 51904.7 billion yuan, the highest in 30 months, second only to 52510 billion yuan in April 2008. Although 165438+ 10 fell by nearly 40%, the increase of 319.6 billion yuan is still at a historical high. The high growth of foreign exchange shows that short-term profit-seeking capital favors China.
Liu said that emerging market countries will face serious asset bubbles and inflationary pressures in the future. The relatively stable fundamentals and stronger growth potential of emerging markets have attracted the rapid inflow of hot money. At present, there are about $50 trillion in capital market investment funds in financial markets including the United States, the European Union, Britain and Japan, and the proportion of their assets in emerging markets is 3%-7%. In the future, the proportion will increase by 1 percentage point, which means that 485 billion dollars of new funds will flow into emerging markets.
The influx of foreign capital has increased the difficulty of monetary policy regulation. If China takes measures to raise interest rates, it will widen the spread between China and the United States, trigger more capital inflows and push up domestic inflation. Although some people think that the main reasons for hot money entering China are the expectation of RMB appreciation and sharing the return of China's asset investment, if the expectation of appreciation can be alleviated, it will help to curb the inflow of hot money by raising interest rates. But cross-border capital arbitrage is inevitable. The central bank still chose to raise the deposit reserve ratio instead of raising interest rates after the CPI rose as high as 5%, which also showed its cautious attitude on raising interest rates.
Three-rate change, walking and watching
Looking ahead to next year's monetary policy, Gao Shanwen believes that the Central Economic Work Conference defined the basic orientation of the macroeconomic policy of 201/kloc-0 as "active, steady, prudent and flexible", and the actual meaning of these eight words is "watching while walking". Because this kind of inflation is not accompanied by overheating, the probability of very strict and rapid tightening of monetary policy is very low, and it is likely to be tightened gradually. Between now and the middle of next year, there may be 75 basis points and room for two or three interest rate hikes. Inflation is the main contradiction in the first half of next year, and it is not excluded that the reserve ratio, benchmark interest rate and exchange rate will move together.
Analysts believe that the central bank's inflation prevention is mainly carried out by controlling the monetary conditions that cause inflation, and the use of specific tools will focus on quantitative control.
At present, the deposit reserve ratio of commercial banks has reached 18.5%, the highest level in history. Some banks that have implemented the differential deposit reserve ratio have reached 19% or even higher. However, industry insiders said that this level is not a "ceiling".
Lu Zhengwei, a senior economist at Industrial Bank, believes that it is expected that the reserve ratio will need to be raised at an average rate of/kloc-0 per month in the first quarter of next year. Zhu, chief economist of CITIC Securities, also believes that the deposit reserve ratio will continue to increase next year according to factors such as the pressure of foreign exchange, and there is no restrictive target. 1 1 10 CPI reached a new high in October, and inflationary pressure will remain high in the coming months. It is expected that there will be two or three interest rate hikes next year.
Regarding the appreciation of RMB next year, political commissar Lu believes that with the further increase of inflationary pressure and high surplus next year, the appreciation of RMB may be greater than this year, and the effective exchange rate of RMB may also appreciate to some extent.
Ha Ji Ming, Managing Director of Hong Kong Investment Banking Department of Goldman Sachs, said that when inflationary pressure is high, it is necessary to make the policy mix more inclined to exchange rate changes, because inflation may harm ordinary people in a social way. Exchange rate changes may have a negative impact on some export industries, but if the RMB does not appreciate, but wages rise in the form of price increases, it will still weaken the competitiveness of export industries, not to mention these industries need long-term encouragement. It is estimated that the RMB will appreciate by 5%-6% next year.
Regarding the growth rate of money and credit next year, Zhu believes that the slowdown in the growth rate of money supply and new credit next year should mean "stable". This year, the growth rate of M2 may exceed 18%, and it is likely to be controlled around 16% next year, and credit will be tightened. In order to maintain steady economic growth, the credit target for next year will be around 7.5 trillion. (Reporter Ren Xiao)
Li Youhuan: Hot money into CPI pusher
In an exclusive interview with china securities journal, Li Youhuan, director of Guangdong Social Science Comprehensive Development Research Center and leader of research on hot money and underground money houses in Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences, predicted that 20 1 1 hot money would greatly promote China's CPI. If the stock market continues to slump, there is limited room for real estate to rise, and there is room for speculation in relevant economic policies, hot money will inevitably speculate on commodities.
Hot money continues to push up CPI
China securities journal: What impact does "hot money" have on China's CPI?
Li Youhuan: The impact of hot money on CPI is mainly to speculate on agricultural products, especially food. Some time ago, hot money speculated on agricultural products and food, which had a great impact on CPI. At present, the effect of relevant suppression measures is unsustainable. Once these measures change, the speculation of hot money on agricultural products will "make a comeback".
The monotony of domestic investment channels is the main reason for hot money speculation. After hot money flows into China, it speculates on real estate, stock market and commodity market. 20 1 1 The role of hot money in promoting CPI cannot be ignored. Moreover, some overseas funds are stationed in Hong Kong, and more hot money may enter the mainland in the future, further making waves in the commodity market.
China securities journal: How do you view the inflow of "hot money" from China next year?
Li Youhuan: The hot money situation in China next year is very variable. Because of the implementation of the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States, the outbreak of economic problems in the euro zone countries, the changes in the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and China's measures to curb inflation, all these are important factors that affect the flow of hot money. These factors will change greatly in the future.
According to our research group's forecast of the future domestic and international economic development situation and preliminary judgment of the situation in Northeast Asia, it is difficult to eliminate the flood of international liquidity in the short term, and the pressure of RMB appreciation is great, so it is very likely that domestic interest rates will be raised to curb inflation. Next year, the domestic and foreign spreads may further increase, and the influx of overseas hot money will probably continue.
Inflow forms are various.
China securities journal: What is the current situation and scale of "hot money" flowing into China?
Li Youhuan: The trend of hot money flowing into China has not slowed down. At present, the trend of rapid inflow is still maintained, which is expected to be difficult to change in the short term. As far as the current situation is concerned, as long as the expectation of RMB appreciation still exists, the pressure of raising interest rates still exists, the spread at home and abroad continues to expand, and international liquidity continues to flood, overseas hot money will inevitably continue to flow in.
China securities journal: What channels does "hot money" generally flow from? What fields does it generally flow into?
Li Youhuan: In the case that China's capital account is not yet open, hot money usually flows in "under legal cloak" or through underground banks. There are many channels for hot money to flow in, among which trade and FDI are the most common.
The main channels for the inflow of overseas hot money are: false import and export commodity prices, false investment by foreign-invested enterprises, false income statements of foreign-invested enterprises, false income statements of overseas-invested enterprises, transfer of funds through the business of foreign-funded financial institutions, and private entry and exit of dual-brand cars.
At present, the total amount of hot money is invested in real estate, followed by commodity market and stock market. After August this year, hot money mainly flowed to the commodity market. Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) introduced a series of measures to crack down on prices. The hot money flowing into the commodity market has decreased, but it mainly flows into the real estate market and is spreading to second-and third-tier cities. At present, the new hot money mainly flows to the real estate industry.
We should jointly crack down on "hot money"
China securities journal: How should the regulatory authorities supervise "hot money"?
Li Youhuan: For hot money borrowed from underground banks, relevant departments can form special groups to carry out special activities to crack down on "hot money", investigate and deal with key subjects and channels, and severely punish speculation.
For hot money through trade channels and investment channels, the regulatory authorities should coordinate with each other and strengthen international cooperation. At present, the most important thing is to highly understand the abnormal flow of hot money, track the flow state and direction of hot money in time, and can not deny the abnormal flow reality of hot money.
China securities journal: How to hedge the inflow of hot money with foreign exchange reserve pool?
Li Youhuan: It is unrealistic to rely solely on the "pool" of foreign exchange reserves to curb the inflow of hot money. Because hot money is profit-seeking, hot money will not stay in the "pool". Where there is profit, hot money will flow. The flow of hot money is largely against the wishes of the regulatory authorities. The rapid inflow and outflow of hot money will seriously disrupt macro-policies and affect the effect of related economic policies. (Reporter Chen Yingying)
It is expected that economic growth and price trends will be "double moderate"
20 1 1, there is little possibility of "double dip" and overheating of economic growth. Even more uncertain is the price, but under a series of control measures, the CPI increase next year may be in a moderate range of 3%-5%.
Economic growth is low before and then high.
As the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, stabilizing economic growth will remain an important goal of economic work next year. Industry insiders predict that this year's GDP growth rate is expected to reach around 10%, and the annual GDP growth rate may drop quarter by quarter. Different from this year, next year's economic growth may show a trend of low before and high after, and continue to show a steady and positive trend.
In order to realize the transformation of economic growth from mainly relying on investment and export to mainly relying on the coordinated development of consumption, investment and export, and from mainly relying on the coordinated development of secondary industry to tertiary industry, it is necessary to start a new round of strategic adjustment of economic structure in the next few years. Teng Tai, vice president and chief economist of Minsheng Securities, believes that strategic emerging industries, the development of the central and western regions, and improving income distribution to stimulate consumption will become the three major focus points for stimulating economic stabilization and recovery next year. In the second half of next year, the economy will really begin to enter an accelerated transition period.
According to the research report released by CITIC Securities, the driving force of 20 1 1 economic growth mainly comes from domestic demand. Due to the tightening of monetary and credit policies, the growth rate of investment next year may be slightly lower than this year. Due to the policy of encouraging consumption and the release of consumption potential, it is expected that consumption growth will remain stable and the pulling effect on the economy will be relatively stable. From a quarterly perspective, it is estimated that the GDP growth rate will reach 8.7%, 9. 1%, 9.8% and 10.2% respectively, and the annual economic growth rate will be 9.5%.
Since the GDP reached 12. 1% in the fourth quarter of last year, China's economic growth rate has dropped for three consecutive quarters. China's GDP growth rate will still be low in the first quarter of next year due to the hikes, and then it is expected to end this round of "small cycle" of economic downturn. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that the economic growth rate may be around 9% next year, and will start to pick up after the first quarter. In the next five years, the potential economic growth rate of China will be reduced from the current 10% to 7%.
Some experts pointed out that although the export growth rate may slow down next year, the contribution of external demand to GDP growth may increase due to the narrowing of domestic demand growth and the upgrading of export structure. Domestically, the "backing" role of proactive fiscal policy will also make domestic demand grow steadily. The economic growth rate is expected to reach around 10% next year, thus opening a new round of strong growth cycle.
There is no basis for an overall price increase.
Analysts believe that CPI may fall below 5% in June 5438+February due to the fall of the hikes and the effect of price control. However, for most of next year, China may still face the pressure of rising prices.
Wang Yiming, executive vice president of the National Development and Reform Commission's Macro Institute, believes that vegetables played a "leading role" in the previous price increase, but historical data shows that the price increase led by vegetables is difficult to last. It is predicted that the economic growth of China next year will be slightly lower than this year, and the total demand and total supply are in a basically balanced state. The macroeconomic environment is conducive to the stability of the price level. On the whole, there is no basis for an overall price increase at present.
Next year, China's inflation rate control target is about 4%, which is 1 percentage point higher than this year's expected target, but still lower than the average growth rate of about 5% in the past 30 years of reform and opening up. Analysts believe that if necessary, tight policies such as raising interest rates will be released again next year, and the pace of price reform of resource products will be appropriately slowed down.
Liu Shijin believes that the macroeconomic policy of 20 1 1 will keep a balance between stable growth and stable prices. The annual CPI increase is controlled within 4.5%, and it is initially estimated to be 4.2%. Judging from the historical law, especially the correlation between money supply and CPI, China's CPI is close to the peak at present. However, after the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States and other countries, if the global economy grows better next year, it is likely that commodity prices will rise next.
CITIC Securities believes that inflation pressure will be high at the beginning of next year, and the price level will still rise rapidly, and will fall back in the second half of the year. Due to the recent slowdown in economic growth, the tight supply and demand situation in the labor market has eased, which will help alleviate the persistent inflationary pressure. It is estimated that CPI will increase by 3.8% and PPI will increase by 4.6% in 20 1 1 year. Next year, global economic growth has no strong support for commodity prices, the possibility of continued sharp depreciation of the US dollar is reduced, and the momentum of rapid rise in commodity prices is weakened. (Reporter Han Xiaodong)
The model of easy credit remains unchanged.
The overall liquidity is abundant.
A number of experts said in an interview with china securities journal that overall, the overall liquidity will remain moderately loose in 20 1 1 year, and the growth rate of loan lending will be moderately slowed down, but it is still at a high level. It is estimated that the new loans will be between 7 trillion and 7.5 trillion yuan.
New loans will not be greatly reduced.
Insiders pointed out that considering the growth inertia of fixed asset investment, it is unlikely that the 20 1 1 year loan will be greatly reduced.
Fu Wenzhong, general manager of UnionPay, said that the growth rate of broad money M2 in 20 1 1 year is expected to be lower than that in 201year. However, in order to prevent the emergence of semi-finished projects and continue to implement active fiscal policy cooperation, the growth rate of M2 will not be too large, and it is expected to be 16.5%. Compared with 10, the new loans will be about 7 trillion, which is 1 trillion lower than 20 10. The regulatory authorities will strictly enforce the pace of loan issuance and increase the absolute amount. Credit will continue to be provided at the rate of 3: 3: 2: 2. We will continue to strengthen the supervision of bank-credit cooperation and control the credit capital curve to enter the capital market.
However, we need to pay attention to the hidden risks brought by high credit growth. Analysts pointed out that the credit scale increased from 15% to about 29% in 2008, which played an important role in successfully coping with the international financial crisis, but it also led to the risk of inflation and asset quality decline. Therefore, the principle of prudence should be adhered to in credit next year, and it is more appropriate to control the credit scale within 7.5 trillion.
Some market participants are worried that high credit operation will aggravate inflation. In this regard, the central bank said that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, not a credit phenomenon. Experience shows that higher inflation rate is always associated with higher growth rate of money supply. However, credit is not equal to money. The expansion or contraction of credit directly causes the change of output, while money indirectly affects output mainly through its influence on price. Credit growth is directly related to economic growth, while monetary growth is more closely related to inflation.
Liquidity is relatively abundant.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of Communications, said that at present, corporate capital demand is relatively strong, and next year is the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. If the money supply is too tight, the capital chain of enterprises may break. The tightening of the monetary and credit gates should be carried out gradually, and the overall liquidity will remain moderately loose next year.
Guo Shikun, general manager of the research department of China Construction Bank, believes that since 2008, the amount of credit has been nearly 20 trillion days, but all the funds have not entered the real economy. Some loans will be converted into deposits, and some funds will remain in the banking system, making the banking system more liquid. Foreign exchange capital inflow, international short-term capital, trade surplus and other factors will also push up the level of capital adequacy in the interbank market.
However, Sheng Hongqing, a macro analyst of China Everbright Bank, predicts that the credit of commercial banks will become a scarce resource next year, and the loan interest rate will be higher than this year. In the future, the level of interbank liquidity still depends on the central bank's regulation of the interbank fund pool, and the future monetary policy will turn to a stable or even tight direction, leading to an appropriate tightening of interbank funds. The central bank will take measures such as intensifying open market operations, speeding up the issuance of long-term central bank bills, and raising the deposit reserve ratio again to control the inter-bank funds in a tight state for a certain period of time.