American data helped the price of silver fall and remained bullish for a long time.
165438+ US1The monthly rate of durable goods orders was negative on October 23rd, which caused the silver to dive in the day, and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States was only 0. 1 higher than the predicted value, which became a contributing factor. However, the counterattack of silver may have just begun at the moment when the Fed raises interest rates, and the bottom of silver may have just begun.
The Fed's interest rate hike oppressed silver investors to leave one after another, which was full of profit. Behind the frequent negative blows, it is often the secret opening of long positions. In the expectation of this interest rate hike, silver is constantly weakening and the news is constantly negative, but the long and short sides are never opposed. Take the last interest rate hike in June, 5438+February last year as an example. At that time, the decline of silver was coming to an end, but in the context of increasing interest rate hike expectations, silver hit a new low, forcing long investors to leave. However, it was on the day of raising interest rates that silver broke through the upward trend, which surprised almost all investors who had already left the market. This is almost the consistent means of institutional funding.
Technically, at present, silver is near the lower rail of the descending channel, and the process of silver bottoming has begun. Silver will show a volatile upward trend for a long time.
20 16 in the context of the economic recovery in the United States and the suspension of global economic difficulties, commodities have stepped out of the volatile upward market, among which the black sector has stepped out of a wave of cattle. As an important member of commodities, the long-term trend of silver is inevitable in the future, far exceeding other metals. The current 12 interest rate hike is the best time node.
The upcoming non-agricultural silver market in the United States is pessimistic. During the investigation period of this COT report, the silver futures in 65438+February fell by more than 1%. Bill Baruch, senior market strategist of IiTrader, said before the release of the report that he expected most of the selling pressure would be eased and the market might enter a consolidation period. He said, "From the speculative position, we can see that silver shows a very oversold level, and I think silver may continue to pull back."
The position report shows that the speculative long position of silver futures fell by 6085 lots to 5.7438+0 lots. At the same time, the short position of silver futures decreased by 765 lots to 1.54438+02 lots. The net speculative position of silver is 425 1.900 lots.
Compared with the previous week, the net speculative position of silver futures fell by more than 1 1%, which was nearly 56% lower than the historical high earlier this year. During the investigation period, the price of silver futures fell by 2.6%, lower than 17 USD/oz.
Hamza Khan, head of commodity strategy department of ING, said: "If oil prices plummet or remain low, then inflation will not rise too much, the incentive for the United States to raise interest rates quickly will be weakened, and the dollar will not be so strong, which will support precious metals such as gold and silver.
Spot gold and silver:
On Thursday (65438+February 2), from the daily technical chart, the spot gold price closed a solid big yinxian line, the bollinger band opened the downside again, and the moving average continued to cross and suppress gold, indicating that gold was suppressed by the news. Bears continued to decline, especially after the weak consolidation in the previous period was broken, the price of gold fell sharply for two consecutive days, MACD crossed the zero axis, and the shrinkage of green kinetic energy gradually weakened. On the whole, gold is still empty. Facing the breakthrough of 1 170 USD support, the barrier of 1 160 USD is also in jeopardy.
On Thursday (65438+February 2), the overall trend of the international spot silver price was dominated by shocks, and the silver price finally closed at 16.48 USD/oz. Today, the international spot silver price opened at USD 65,438 +06.48. At present, the price of silver has risen slightly. The highest price of silver in the day is $65,438 +06.6 1, and the lowest price is $65,438 +06.48. At present, the silver price is trading at $65,438 +06.57. The trend of silver and the price of gold follow suit.
Before the Fed formally raises interest rates this month, it is unlikely that silver will rise. However, some analysts believe that silver will enter a bull market after this adjustment, because there is still political uncertainty next year, and the rebound of inflation will also support silver. The US non-farm employment data 1 1 was released today, and silver will usher in another storm.