Is conflict between the United States and Iran imminent?
What’s the plan behind the U.S.’s troubles?
On the evening of September 20, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the details of a new round of sanctions against Iran, including sanctions on the Central Bank of Iran, the National Development Fund of Iran, etc.
The assets of sanctioned targets in the United States will be frozen, and U.S. citizens will not be allowed to conduct transactions with them.
The head of the Central Bank of Iran said that the United States is at the end of its rope in finding ways to sanction Iran and that the Iranian market remains stable.
How much impact will these U.S. sanctions have on Iran?
How will Iran respond?
How will the continued turmoil in the Middle East affect global energy security?
On the evening of September 21, "CCTV Financial Review" invited Dong Manyuan, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, and Wang Guan, a commentator at CCTV Finance, to the studio for in-depth analysis.
What is the impact of the United States' maximum pressure on Iran?
Dong Manyuan: The United States has exhausted its sanctions, but Iran cannot do anything. Dong Manyuan, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: As an important strategic ally of the United States in the Middle East, if Saudi Arabia is attacked, the United States must of course comfort it as soon as possible.
U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo flew to Saudi Arabia and expressed this attitude towards Saudi Arabia: This attack exposed the vulnerability of Saudi Arabia’s key infrastructure, indicating that the weapons are not enough and the quality is not enough. The solution is to buy more weapons. Obviously, the United States is very powerful.
Part of the energy is actually put here.
The announcement to send more troops to the Middle East, using the Central Bank of Iran, Iran's sovereign wealth fund and an Iranian company as supplements to new sanctions, was largely exaggerated.
In fact, the United States has used almost all the means it can use against Iran, but it has been unable to do anything to Iran.
Wang Guan: The U.S.’s words and deeds are contradictory and the effects of sanctions are not as good as expected. Wang Guan, a commentator at CBC News: Former U.S. national security adviser John Bolton, who advocated being tougher on Iran, was just fired; another key location is Afghanistan. At the end of August, Trump
President Trump has stated that he will withdraw an additional 5,000 US troops, which was also his campaign promise. How can it be possible to launch another large-scale military operation in the Middle East?
Wang Guan: Behind the U.S.’s troubles is business. Wang Guan, a commentator at CMG Finance: Many people have noticed that the U.S. is sending more troops to the Middle East. Rather than saying that these hundreds of troops are an increase in troops, they are actually more like a convoy for a weapons exhibition, that is,
It is said that there is business behind everything.
More than two years ago, US President Trump visited Saudi Arabia and signed a record-breaking large-scale arms purchase contract of US$110 billion. This was not enough, and he also agreed to purchase another US$300 billion in the future.
If the Middle East remains calm, why buy another $300 billion?
Of course, the contract can only be established if tensions continue to arise in the region.
As turmoil continues in the Middle East, how can energy security be ensured?
Wang Guan: Saudi Arabia will strive to ensure production capacity. Stable listing is the most important. CMG Finance Commentator Wang Guan: Saudi Arabia’s current production has indeed been weakened, but there is still inventory, so it will definitely not be unable to deliver the contract.
And Saudi Arabia will definitely do everything possible to ensure production capacity, which is an important part of Saudi Arabia's 2030 vision.
Taking out 5% of the shares of Aramco and IPO at a valuation of US$100 billion, hoping to promote the transformation of the entire country's economic structure.
Saudi Arabia will never try to push up oil prices indefinitely just because of a brief attack. This is a small gain, and listing is the most important thing.
Dong Manyuan: The supply and demand relationship in the international energy market is basically stable. Dong Manyuan, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies: The attack on Saudi Arabia, followed by a series of accusations and sanctions, will indeed cause short-term oil price fluctuations.
However, the relationship between global oil supply and demand is basically stable. The first is that global oil supply now exceeds demand; the second is that the world economy is in recession and demand is not that strong; the third is that international strategic oil reserves are now abundant; the fourth is the repair of Saudi oil facilities
The speed is very fast, it is estimated that it will be almost the same by the end of the month, and the supply capacity can keep up.
Wang Guan: International oil prices lack support in the era of "negative interest rates" Wang Guan, a commentator at CMG Finance: A hot word in the global economy right now is the wave of interest rate cuts, or negative interest rates, which fully reflects the relatively negative sentiment permeating the global economy. The oil price itself
There is a lack of support.