financial turmoil refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures). It is characterized by people's expectation that the economy will be more pessimistic in the future, and the currency value in the whole region has depreciated greatly, and the economic aggregate and scale have suffered great losses, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business closures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil. Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented a mixed form of crisis-Lehman Brothers, a financial "crocodile" with more than 15 years, finally failed to support it in this stormy season, and ended up with a "bankruptcy application", which made Chinese people reassess the "subprime mortgage crisis" on the other side of the ocean. Affected by this incident, China Bank shares fell sharply yesterday, and China Merchants Bank was among them. Today, China Merchants Bank announced the holding of Lehman Brothers bonds. Even if all the bonds are lost, it will only affect the earnings per share of .324 yuan/share, with little substantial impact. However, it remains to be seen whether psychologically fragile investors will treat it rationally. "Lehman Brothers is facing bankruptcy!" The impact of this news on the global stock market can be described as immediate, but its impact may just begin to appear! After Huaan Fund Company announced yesterday that its Huaan International Allocation Fund was affected by the Lehman Brothers incident, today China Merchants Bank (636, closing price of 16.7 yuan) also announced that it was affected by Lehman Brothers. It was announced that the company held bonds issued by Lehman Brothers in the United States amounting to $7 million. Insiders pointed out that in the face of yesterday's orderly limit of bank stocks, the release of this unfavorable news may be amplified by the market. Limited Substantial Impact Today, China Merchants Bank announced that as of the announcement date, the company had a bond exposure of US$ 7 million issued by Lehman Brothers. Among them, senior bonds are 6 million US dollars and subordinated bonds are 1 million US dollars. At the same time, the announcement said that the company will assess the risks of the above bonds and extract the corresponding impairment reserves according to the principle of prudence. 7 million dollars-converted into RMB is equivalent to about 477 million yuan. How much impact will this figure have on China Merchants Bank? If China Merchants Bank makes a 1% impairment on the bonds issued by Lehman Brothers, the loss will be 47.7 million yuan. According to the calculation of China Merchants Bank's total share capital of 14.77 billion shares, the impact on earnings per share will only be .32 yuan/share; If China Merchants Bank makes a 5% provision for bad debts for US$ 7 million, the impact on earnings per share will only be .162 yuan/share; Even at worst, if all the bad debts of this $7 million are accrued, the impact will only be .324 yuan/share, which is obviously quite small compared with the earnings per share of China Merchants Bank in the middle of this year, .9 yuan. Therefore, national securities analysts believe that although China Merchants Bank has not made corresponding impairment provision for the bonds held by Lehman Brothers, even if this incident is the worst, the substantial impact on China Merchants Bank is quite limited. The market may overreact "the substantial impact is limited!" This is the industry's evaluation of China Merchants Bank's involvement in Lehman Brothers, but will the market treat it rationally? -The U.S. financial crisis dragged down the global market, while the domestic A-share market fell sharply under the influence of Chinese financial stocks. As a result, Hong Kong stocks hit a new low on the first trading day after the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and all 43 blue-chip stocks were spared. On Wednesday, due to the US government's $85 billion rescue of AIG, the three major US stock indexes rebounded across the board, and Hong Kong stocks followed the US stocks to open higher in early trading. However, due to the performance of Chinese banking stocks in intraday trading, Hong Kong stocks turned down and closed sharply again, and the Hang Seng Index fell below the 18, mark. On Thursday, U.S. stocks plunged overnight, and domestic banks revealed that they held more Lehman bonds. In addition, the plunge of A shares caused Hong Kong stocks to open lower in early trading and then fell sharply. The Hang Seng Index once fell by 7%, and the index of state-owned enterprises once fell by 1%. However, in the afternoon, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority injecting HK$ 1.5 billion into the local banking system to inject necessary liquidity and stimulate the rebound of A shares, large-scale buying in the Hong Kong stock market caused the market to reverse instantly, closing at 17,632 points, and the market turnover surged by HK$ 12.2 billion On Friday, the three major stock indexes in the United States rose sharply across the board because the US Treasury Department reported that it was considering setting up an institution similar to the "settlement trust group" in the 198 s, thus taking away all the bad debts on the balance sheets of financial institutions; In addition, the central government also introduced unilateral stamp duty and Huijin began to absorb financial stocks in the secondary market. The strong rebound of the US stock market and the measures taken by the Chinese government to rescue the market have brought a strong upward momentum to Hong Kong stocks. At present, for the turbulent global financial market, the crux should be that the economic downturn cycle coincides with the decline of the real estate market, which is difficult to improve simply by relying on monetary policy. At the same time, the American government announced that it would provide AIG with an emergency loan of $85 billion, which temporarily stabilized the American stock market, but the author believes that the domino effect of AIG will continue. Whether Lehman or AIG, whether applying for bankruptcy protection or under the pressure of financing, both companies want to sell their assets in the market, so who is the buyer? The interest rate of the US$ 85 billion loan funded by the US government is 8% higher than the US Interbank Offered Rate, which means that AIG is expected to pay the Fed a fairly high lending interest. Therefore, we can't simply think that the Fed's capital injection is to rescue the market. In the future, many financial institutions with problems will sell their assets in the market, and more and more sellers will appear. As long as the seller's problems are not solved, it is difficult for the US stock market to stabilize. The financial turmoil swept the world. After Lehman declared bankruptcy protection, central banks all over the world injected capital into the market one after another. In China, the long-awaited rescue action has finally come out. The People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the loan interest rate for the first time since October 22, and at the same time cut the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions. The introduction of this policy shows that the tone of the country's macroeconomic policy is shifting from "anti-inflation" to "maintaining growth". The market is looking forward to the possibility of introducing policies such as comprehensively lowering the deposit reserve ratio and relaxing credit control in the future. However, due to the increase of global financial risks, China's economic growth this year is facing serious challenges. In addition, the central government also introduced unilateral stamp duty and Huijin began to absorb financial stocks in the secondary market, which also injected an upward momentum into the A-share market. However, under the baptism of this year's rare financial turmoil, it is obviously doubtful whether the rescue measures can be effective. In terms of market hotspots, Chinese banks' equity week has become the protagonist in the Hong Kong stock market, and has suddenly become the main force leading the market from the fate of being repeatedly sold off. First of all, the selling of Chinese stocks is not simply due to the financial difficulties of Lehman Brothers and AIG, but is closely related to the narrowing of the interest margin. The narrowing of the net interest margin brought about by the asymmetric interest rate cut by the central bank has cast a shadow over the profit growth prospects of Chinese financial stocks. The central bank lowered the loan interest rate, and some current deposit accounts switched to time deposits, which further narrowed the interest margin of Chinese banks and directly affected the interest income of banks. In addition, the cumulative decline of Chinese bank stocks has been lower than the overall market level. Under the current pessimistic atmosphere, many investors are worried that some Lehman or AIG securities they hold will become waste paper, so they sell them in a big way. After that, due to the intervention of Central Huijin Company, Chinese banking stocks became the first beneficiary sector.

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