1. It is unlikely that there will be a global financial crisis and a serious economic recession in the short term.
(A) the main characteristics of the subprime mortgage crisis in the short term
1. government intervention initially contained the panic in the financial market.
At the beginning of the subprime mortgage crisis, the main performance was the serious lack of liquidity in the financial market. In order to prevent the liquidity shortage from spreading to the whole financial market and causing financial crisis, the governments of developed countries have intervened unprecedentedly. The first is to inject liquidity into the financial market, followed by interest rate cuts and tax cuts. The U.S. government even conducted a series of unprecedented administrative interventions since World War II. The government's package of intervention measures basically solved the liquidity crisis in the early stage of the subprime mortgage crisis.
2. Preventing financial crisis has become the primary goal.
When controlling economic growth, inflation and price stability, monetary authorities should first curb inflation and maintain price stability. However, in the first stage of the subprime mortgage crisis, curbing inflation became a secondary goal, and preventing the whole economy from slipping into the financial crisis became the primary goal.
3. The real estate market continues to deteriorate.
In 2005, the American real estate market began to adjust, and the subprime mortgage crisis was induced in the second half of 2007. As of July this year, the housing operating rate continued to decline, and the housing sales situation continued to deteriorate. For the trend of the real estate market, there are great differences at home and abroad. Most international institutions and private commercial organizations believe that it is possible to bottom out at the end of this year or early next year, but it may not necessarily rebound.
A global recession is unlikely to happen in the short term.
The impact of the first stage of the subprime mortgage crisis on the real economy is mainly transmitted to the real economy through financial channels, and the most direct performance is the credit crunch in the financial market. Among many indicators to measure the credit crunch in the market, the most important one is the difference between corporate bond yields and government bond yields. The greater the difference, the higher the risk of corporate bonds; The yields of corporate bonds and government bonds continue to expand, indicating that the tightening trend of financial markets is still worsening. However, the conclusion made in June last year (5438+ 10) that there is little possibility of a global financial crisis and a serious economic recession in the short term can still be adhered to.
(B) the short-term impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the US economy
In the fourth quarter of last year, the US economy experienced negative growth. This year, after the low growth rate of 0.9% in the first quarter, there was a high growth rate of 3.3% in the second quarter. This is mainly the result of the intervention of the Federal Reserve behind the scenes, among which tax reduction is the most important driving factor. Tax cuts increase disposable personal income and stimulate consumption, which is the contribution of American private consumption to economic growth. From an economic point of view, short-term economic stimulus, especially tax reduction, generally lasts for 6-8 months. If this is true, the tax reduction effect may disappear in the third quarter, and private consumption investment will further decline in the third and fourth quarters.
In the second quarter of this year, the real disposable income of American families rose sharply. There is a downward trend in July. In fact, the contribution of American investment through financial channels to economic growth has been negative for 1 ~ 3 quarters in a row. The rapid growth of American economy in the second quarter is mainly based on two factors: first, the rapid growth of exports, reaching 3.1%; The second is consumption. Since the tax reduction effect will gradually disappear, the exchange rate of the US dollar has bottomed out, and the exchange rate against the euro and the Japanese yen is rising, so the contribution of the US current account will decrease. In the third and fourth quarters of this year and early next year, the possibility of a recession in the US economy is still not ruled out.
Compared with the real economy, in the virtual economy, the first manifestation is the shortage of financial liquidity and credit crunch, which has now spread to the stock market and declined, but it is not significant compared with the China stock market.
Secondly, the subprime mortgage crisis will increase the risk of inflation.
In the middle of the subprime mortgage crisis, the prominent feature is the increase of inflation risk. In July this year, the consumer price index in the United States reached 5.5%, and the core consumer price index excluding energy and agricultural products did not drop significantly, indicating that inflation in the United States mainly came from external conduction, including the rise in global commodity prices. The same is true of inflation in other countries. The core consumer price index of the euro zone recognized by the European Central Bank is 2%. If it exceeds 2%, it will endanger the development of the whole economy.
Japan's economy has been plagued by deflation for a long time, and it has also risen recently. Although the core consumer price index has just passed zero, as of June this year, the nominal consumer price index is close to 1.9%. Therefore, the global inflation trend will continue to strengthen at present and in the next stage. There are many reasons, one is the economy itself, and more importantly, it is closely related to the rise of global agricultural products, commodities and energy prices. Therefore, preventing inflation will be the primary policy goal of developed countries, and it is possible to raise interest rates.
Is the risk of recession or inflation greater? If we can confirm that there is little risk of economic recession, controlling inflation means maintaining price stability. In the past 20 years, the primary policy goal of central banks in developed countries has been to maintain price stability. It is based on this that the low price is depressed. If the central bank puts the inflation target in a secondary position, costs may rise, which will lead the public to demand higher wages to ensure welfare, just like when energy prices or commodity prices rose in the 1970s. Central banks will never take this risk to destroy the credibility built over the past 20 years. When the real economy is in a stable state, controlling inflation will be the priority goal.
We believe that the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on the real economy will gradually expand from the investment field, that is, the financial field to the private consumption field. Because, in the first stage, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is mostly a shortage of liquidity. In the second stage, with the continuous decline of real estate prices, the decline of personal consumption expenditure, personal income and securities market will affect personal income and personal expected income through wealth effect, thus reducing personal consumption desire and slowing down private consumption, and then affecting the real economy through this channel. 70% of the American economy is driven by private consumption. So once there is a problem with private consumption, it is very likely that the US economy will slow down or decline.
In July this year, the exchange rate of the US dollar strengthened, and people seemed to see the bottom of the US dollar, but it is difficult to judge that the US dollar has gone through an upward cycle. This situation is related to the trend of the three major economies of the United States, Japan and the euro zone. While the American economy reached 3.3% in the second quarter, the euro zone economy and the Japanese economy experienced negative growth. The difference of economic growth rate and the expectation that the risk of subprime mortgage crisis in the United States will be initially contained make people optimistic about the US dollar. However, because the possibility of economic recession in the United States still exists, there is still great uncertainty about whether the trend of dollar strengthening can be smoothly reversed into a V-shape. This is the medium-term effect of the subprime mortgage crisis, and it will develop in this respect in the future.
Generally speaking, in the next year or longer, the whole developed country economy, even the global economy and the real economy are not optimistic. The most direct logic is that if developed countries want to control inflation, they must raise interest rates and tighten their currencies, which is self-evident.
Third, the main factors affecting the future global economic trend
The subprime mortgage crisis is different from the Asian financial crisis and the bubble economy. Based on the development of the market economy itself, the subprime mortgage crisis has gradually evolved. The initial prosperity of the real estate market triggered a credit crunch, which gradually spread to the securities market and then to the real economy. This is a typical economic crisis in the traditional sense, so its recovery must be a slow process.
The important reason leading to the subprime mortgage crisis is closely related to the deregulation of the financial industry in developed countries 20 years ago. Because of deregulation, banks take so-called financial innovation as the main means of making money in the international financial market, which makes banks artificially reduce risks through asset securitization. The corresponding credit rating agencies improve the risk level of real estate loans, which is obviously related to the unsupervised or unfavorable supervision of the institutions.
All enterprises know that risk is linked to price in financial market, and risk is reduced, that is, risk pricing is low. If we return to the normal price level, the financing cost of risk pricing will rise. In the past 20 years, developed countries, especially the United States, have been able to achieve consumption through debt, which is very important because the financing cost in the global financial market is very low. At present, the global financing cost is rising. If the risk of financial liberalization returns to normal level, it may affect the debt consumption pattern of developed countries led by the United States. In the past 20 years, the main driving force of global economic growth has been the strong domestic demand in the United States. China's large export is driven by the economic demand of the United States. Even a slight change will have a great impact on global economic growth and China's economic export growth.
In addition to the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, there are several factors that deserve high attention in the future global economic trend.
First, the real estate and subprime mortgage crisis spread to European countries. In recent years, the most dynamic European countries such as Britain, Iceland, Ireland and Spain are all supported by real estate. After the second quarter of this year, European countries with particularly crazy real estate prices have shown a trend of adjustment. Will they repeat the mistakes of American subprime mortgage crisis? This is the problem that people are most concerned about. If we repeat the mistakes of the American subprime mortgage crisis, the European economy may have problems. However, the real estate in these countries did not develop through asset securitization like the United States. More importantly, European countries, such as Germany, did not have a serious real estate bubble problem. Therefore, as long as there are no major problems in the German economy, the risk of the spread of the European economy, real estate and subprime mortgage crisis will not be too great.
Second, global interest rates are slowly rising. After the middle period of the subprime mortgage crisis, developed countries will take controlling inflation as their primary goal, so they will raise or at least stop lowering interest rates, and tight monetary policy will be the trend of global financial interest rates. Up to now, all emerging market economies, including India and South Korea, have begun to enter the system. The European Central Bank has raised interest rates once, and only the Federal Reserve is watching. Generally speaking, the global interest rate will show a slow upward trend in the future.
Third, the trend of high oil prices in the future is normal. At present, the international views on the trend of oil prices are divided into two camps, and there are great differences. From the end of last year to the first half of this year, the oil price rose from below 100 to 147. In this regard, members of developed countries attribute it to the imbalance between supply and demand. From the supply side, the demand of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries exceeds the supply, so the International Energy Organization has been asking the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase production; From the demand side, the demand in China, Indian and other countries is too strong. It is precisely because of the imbalance between supply and demand that this round of oil price rises. Developing countries and members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries believe that this is mainly caused by financial market speculation. In July, the oil price dropped from 147 USD to over16,5438+00 USD, a drop of 20%, and the global supply remained basically unchanged. Obviously, financial market speculation theory is more convincing.
Oil prices may fall for a long time in the future, but they will never return to their original state. High oil prices are still the norm. As long as it falls below 100, OPEC countries may take measures to limit production. Considering that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is increasingly controlling the global energy price and the gap between supply and demand is getting smaller and smaller, if production is limited, it can completely dominate the future oil price trend. Therefore, it may remain at 100 USD or continue to fluctuate around 100 USD in the future.
Fourth, the possible impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China enterprises.
1. Export growth slowed down.
There are two factors that slow down export growth: international and domestic. International factors are related to the slowdown of economic growth in the United States, Europe and Japan. However, we should also pay attention to domestic factors. According to the latest statistics of the Customs, not long ago, China's share in some major trade markets showed a downward trend, which is a phenomenon worthy of great concern. Because there is no need to worry about cyclical decline. When we get out of the trough, the growth rate will naturally pick up again, which is beyond intervention. However, the decline in share shows that there are problems in export competitiveness, and there are many factors that lead to the decline in export competitiveness. In the past, the export tax rebate rate has been decreasing, and the minimum wage law has raised the wage level. The combination of pollution control and energy consumption reduction is having a negative impact on the export competitiveness of China enterprises. Therefore, around the issue of export growth, we need to pay more attention to domestic issues, that is, the decline of international and external demand is beyond our control, but it is essential for enterprises to cope with the changes in the domestic economic environment, improve their internal strength and improve their competitiveness. If the export competitiveness declines under the condition of low global economic growth, even in the process of future economic recovery, it may still face a very passive situation.
2. The input pressure of inflation has increased.
In the past few months, inflation in China has been rising rapidly, mainly due to international factors. For western countries, they are not too worried because they are more concerned about the core consumer price index. In economics, only when the core consumer price index is too high can the economy really overheat. If the nominal CPI is too high, it is only an external shock, and it will be normal after a periodic decline; But China is different, because for ordinary consumers, no matter what factors, as long as the price increases, ordinary people will object. Therefore, the dilemma faced by the China government is completely different from that of foreign governments. The inflation we are facing, even if it is imported, is under great pressure. In the coming period, if we consider the double pressure of overheating of the international economy, the pressure of macro-policy can be said to be unprecedented.
3. Psychological impact on the capital market
China's capital account and capital flow are not in line with the international financial market, and the stock market has experienced a stock market crash in the past few months, largely due to psychological reasons. In this sense, the decline of the global stock market is less than 15% of that of the United States, while that of China is over 60%, ranking first in the world. Obviously, this is related to psychological shock. The reason of psychological influence is related to the fact that the economy has not encountered a big impact in the 30 years of reform and opening up. During the Asian financial crisis from 65438 to 0997, due to the low degree of integration with the international economy, it was easy for us to cope with the past; At present, under the pattern of global economic interaction, the fluctuation of China's capital market suddenly makes people feel unprecedented panic, so the impact on China is more of a psychological overreaction.
4. Expectation of RMB appreciation and hot money flow
In the early days, we were more worried about the continuous inflow of hot money, but recently we began to worry about the outflow of hot money. If a large amount of hot money flows out, it depends on whether it is continuous or short-term. If it continues, the short-term impact on China's economy will be even more terrible than the inflow of hot money. For example, Japan's economy was originally caused by a large outflow of international capital, which led to the bursting of the capital bubble and the formation of a 15-year economic recession.
Against the background of US dollar exchange rate and hot money outflow, the expectation of RMB appreciation still exists. Although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is close to the equilibrium exchange rate internationally, the appreciation of RMB against the Japanese yen, the euro, and especially the euro is not large, while the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has increased by more than 20%, putting increasing pressure on the EU. In the future, there will not be much room for RMB to appreciate against the US dollar, and the possibility of further appreciation against the Euro will not be ruled out.
5. The risk of maintaining and increasing the value of foreign exchange reserves is increasing.
At present, the preservation and appreciation of investment exceeding RMB 65,438+00 trillion has become a problem that China's macro-economy must consider. In the past two years, many people have suggested that in the face of the bursting of the global asset price bubble and the global economic recession, we can take advantage of the favorable opportunity to invest in assets, make big money and bargain-hunting. As a result of actual operation, the risk of bargain-hunting is still great. The most obvious investments are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The United States has announced that China has invested more than 300 billion in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, but it is not clear whether it entered before the real estate adjustment in the United States or before and after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, which reflects that there are still many problems in our estimation of the global economy and global economic and financial risks. More importantly, we must pay close attention to Blackstone's investment and ongoing investment, and we must have enough risk awareness.
In other words, even when the global economy is depressed and the global economic bubble bursts, investing overseas is not Man Cang gold, which will be an important part of the appreciation and preservation of foreign exchange reserves in the future. In addition, when using foreign exchange reserves for large-scale foreign investment, we may also face institutional constraints from developed countries. Although they are calling for trade liberalization and investment liberalization, there are various restrictions when they actually enter China to make overseas investments in large-scale sovereign funds, not to mention restrictions in the financial sector. Even if they enter the field of physics, there will still be many restrictions. How to deal with the risk of maintaining and increasing value is a problem that must be considered in macroeconomic policy in the new period.
(This article is taken from the author's speech at the 2008 Top 500 Chinese Enterprises Release and China Big Enterprises Summit. )