Last Friday's opening, the three major stock indexes rose collectively, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index once rose more than 2%. However, near midday, technology stocks plummeted and the three major stock indexes turned green at the same time. In the afternoon, the three major stock indexes remained in a narrow range, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index closed slightly higher. In terms of funds, the net outflow of main funds in the two cities was 7.5 billion yuan, of which the net outflow in the late session was 4.3 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 60%. In terms of individual stocks, Shaanxi Coal Industry (60 1225) plans to buy back shares on a large scale, with a daily limit; Jindun shares (3004 1 1) have five boards, and Jinhong Holdings (000669) has six boards for seven days.
The industry sector rose more and fell less. Among the 23 rising industries, leisure services and mining led the rise, and the industry index rose by more than 2%. The big consumer sector ushered in a rebound, and the indexes of medicine, biology, food and beverage rose by more than 1%. The computer communication sector was among the top losers, with the industry index falling by 2.53% and 0.8% respectively.
According to the whole-day trend of main capital, less than half of the industries have net capital inflows, and the main capital inflows of mining, medicine and biology are in the forefront, all exceeding 200 million yuan, and the net inflow of food and beverage is also above 1 100 million yuan, while the net inflows of other industries are below 1 100 million yuan.
On September 10, the total turnover of the two cities was 247.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 22 10/0 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day, and the net outflow was10.89 billion yuan. Affected by the weekend news, the two markets opened lower yesterday morning, and the science and technology sectors represented by computers, electronic information, network security and communications continued to receive funds after last Friday. Only gas and real estate have a small amount of funds active, and 4 billion funds continue to flow out of small and medium-sized enterprises in the afternoon. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.2 1% to close at 2669 points. The data shows that the net inflow of water supply and gas supply, real estate and electrical appliances is in the top.
Banking stocks are favored by securities companies.
With the disclosure of the semi-annual report and the performance of listed banks in the first half of the year, the shareholders of listed banks also changed in the second quarter. Similar to the operation in the second quarter of 20 17, the securities company was still "bought by buy buy" in the second quarter of 20 18.
The data shows that in the second quarter of this year, after excluding Hong Kong Securities Clearing (Agency) Co., Ltd., the list of the top ten shareholders of 26 listed banks changed about 40 times. According to statistics, although the banking sector was depressed from April to June, the top ten shareholders of listed banks increased their positions in the second quarter. Among the above-mentioned 40 changes of the top ten shareholders of listed banks, the number of times shareholders increased their holdings was as many as 30, and the number of times shareholders reduced their holdings was only about 10.
As the top ten shareholders of many listed companies, securities companies have frequent operations every quarter, and the second quarter of this year is no exception. By the end of June, there were 16 A-share listed banks and securities companies in the list of the top ten shareholders. In addition, the investment targets of securities companies in listed banks have also expanded from state-owned banks and joint-stock banks to sub-new banks. In the second quarter, it bought 74.667 million shares of Guiyang Bank, and its current shareholding ratio is 3.25%, making it the fourth largest shareholder of Guiyang Bank.
The reporter combed the list of the top ten shareholders of all listed banks in the semi-annual report and found that the securities company carried out 1 1 operation on listed banks in the second quarter of this year, and all of them increased their holdings. In three months, listed banks have accumulated 2.286 billion shares.
Among them, the securities company increased its holdings of Agricultural Bank of China the most, with an increase of about 677 million shares in the second quarter. In addition, it holds more than 200 million shares in China Bank, China Everbright Bank, Bank of Communications and Industrial Bank. According to the list of the top ten shareholders, except Guiyang Bank, which is a city commercial bank, all the banks increased by securities companies are state-owned banks and joint-stock banks.
Since the beginning of this year, the operation of securities companies is close to the market trend, and the style of "high throwing and low sucking" is obvious. In the first quarter of this year, the share prices of listed banks hit record highs, while the securities companies reduced their positions on a large scale. In the first quarter of this year, the securities company reduced its holdings of seven banking stocks, including ICBC, Agricultural Bank, China Construction Bank, China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, China CITIC Bank and Industrial Bank. Among them, the Agricultural Bank, which set the highest price since its listing at that time, reduced its holdings by 4.887 billion shares in one breath. However, when the bank's share price plummeted in the second quarter, the securities company did not reduce its holdings, but bought and increased the shares of 1 1 listed banks in one breath.
Liquor stocks welcome catalysts.
On the one hand, the valuation has fallen below the historical center, and the liquor sector has slowed down and shifted gears; On the other hand, the performance of most liquor listed companies in the first half of the year is red, which proves that the industry prosperity is still there. In the face of the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and the peak season of the industry, what is the investment value of the liquor sector? The industry believes that the fundamental performance of the liquor industry is still good, and whether the sector can regain its strength in September will be a key point. Investors should pay close attention to the sales trend of liquor.
Due to concerns about the late demand for liquor, most liquor stocks have been under pressure since July, dragging down the valuation of the sector to a relatively low historical level. However, from the report end, the off-season income of liquor enterprises still maintained rapid growth in the second quarter.
At the high end, Kweichow Moutai's revenue grew rapidly in the second quarter, with revenue of 1, 366,5438+0.8 billion yuan, up 47.05% year-on-year. 20 18 In the first half of the year, the company achieved a net profit of157.64 million yuan, up 40. 12% year-on-year. On the second high end, Jiugui Liquor made a profit of 524 million yuan in the first half of this year, up 41.26% year-on-year; Revenue in the second quarter was 259 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.59%. Fang Shuijing's revenue in the first half of the year was 65.438+33.6 billion yuan, up 58.97% year-on-year, of which the core product No.8 increased by 79% and the well platform increased by 53%. It can be seen that the high-end liquor maintained rapid growth, and the second-high-end liquor continued its high growth in the second quarter.
In addition, regional leaders continued to benefit from consumption upgrading, and the price segment above 100 yuan increased in volume. For example, the income of Kouzijiao in the first half of 2065438+2008 was 265438+59 million yuan, up 23.67% year-on-year; The revenue in the first and second quarters was 909 million yuan, up 27.5 1% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter. In the first half of 20 18, the company's revenue was 2.362 billion yuan, up by 30.5438+0% year-on-year; In the first and second quarters, the revenue was 8.765438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.30%.
People in the industry generally believe that the fundamentals of liquor industry are relatively solid, the relationship between volume and price is relatively stable, performance growth provides effective support, and the prosperity is still in the upward channel. With the coming of Mid-Autumn Festival, the competition and differentiation of liquor enterprises will be more obvious, and the stock situation will largely determine the recent plate sentiment and valuation trend.
According to the data, as of August 27th, the net profits of 1 1 liquor listed companies reported in 20 18 all achieved year-on-year growth, among which the net profits of Laobai Dry Wine, Shede Liquor Industry and Fang Shuijing all doubled year-on-year, with year-on-year growth rates of 208.5438+0% and 18 respectively.
In fact, in addition to the continuation of performance growth, the collective support of institutions continues to be reflected in the semi-annual reports of listed companies in the liquor industry. According to the reporter, the fund is still one of the important institutions that hold liquor stocks on a large scale in the second quarter. Except *ST Huangtai, the shareholding scope covers all other 17 liquor listed companies. In addition, among the liquor companies that have disclosed the interim report, five companies, such as Yilite, Fang Shuijing, Kweichow Moutai, Shunxin Agriculture and Laobaigan Liquor, are also held by social security funds, insurance funds, QFII and other institutions. Specifically, funds, social security funds, insurance funds, QFII and other institutions have appeared in the list of the top ten tradable shareholders of Yilite; Shunxin Agriculture, Fang Shuijing and other companies are also favored by three types of institutions; Kweichow Moutai and Laobaigan Liquor are both held by two types of institutions.
Real estate stocks may have more opportunities than risks.
With the market downturn, the share price of real estate stocks has dropped by nearly 50% from the high level since the beginning of the year. According to institutional statistics, the current A and H real estate sectors are 7.2 times and 6.5 times the expected P/E ratio of 20 18 respectively. Many companies have broken the net and their valuations have shrunk to historical lows.
Judging from the comprehensive profitability of housing enterprises in the first half of the year, Evergrande's operating income in the first half of the year was 300.35 billion yuan and its net profit reached 53.05 billion yuan. The operating income exceeds the sum of Vanke and Country Garden, and the net profit exceeds the sum of Country Garden, Vanke, Poly and Greenland, and it has been awarded the title of "Profit King". The increase of Evergrande's profits benefited from the explosion of income, the decrease of management fees and the release of profits brought about by paying off perpetual debts in advance.
According to the statistics released by the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of September 6th, there were 17 real estate enterprises that released their sales performance in the first eight months, with cumulative sales of18.998 billion real estate enterprises, up by 3 1% year-on-year.
Citic Jiantou pointed out that 1, the future liquidity is loose, and it can be expected that the mortgage interest rate is expected to peak this year. 2. In the deleveraging stage, after many enterprises experienced the upward financing cost in the first half of the year, some large-scale high-quality and high-rated companies showed the improvement of financing interest rate, which reflected the change of deleveraging rhythm and also explained the dependence of funds on high-rated companies to some extent. 3. In some cities, the rate of land auction is constantly increasing because of strict price limit orders, which will force local governments to make some rational choices, or adjust the reserve price of land transfer to make the land cost more reasonable, or try to relax the price limit orders. Based on the above points, looking at the future space at this point in time, real estate stocks actually have more opportunities than risks.
CITIC Jiantou proposes to optimize: 1, leading real estate enterprises (Vanke, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Real Estate, OCT) with strong financing ability and great ROE breakthrough potential; 2. Enterprises enjoying growth flexibility and marginal catalysis (Sunshine City, Rong Sheng Development); 3. High-quality Hong Kong stock enterprises (Xuhui Holdings, Longguang Real Estate, Hejing Taifu); 4. Enterprises enjoying stock dividends (Jianfa, Everbright Jiabao, Xinhubao).
CICC believes that capital and land reserves will promote sales and accelerate the concentration of profits. It is estimated that the sales growth rate of leading companies will be 30-40% this year, 20-30% next year, and the profit growth rate will be 35% this year and 29% next year. In addition, it is expected that the gross profit margin at the sales end will fluctuate within a narrow range, reaching the bottom as early as the second half of 20 19.
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