Behind the characteristics and changes of world economic operation is the standard system of global economic rules among countries around such factors as politics, military affairs, ideology and values.

countries compete for global economic rules, standards, systems, industrial chains and supply chains, thus forming a comprehensive and complex economic structure. While the short-term factors of instability, uncertainty and insecurity are constantly emerging, some deep-seated contradictions and structural problems are increasingly prominent, and the world economy is facing many outstanding risks and challenges.

The world bears the risk of stagflation

1. Stagflation is the coexistence of economic stagnation and inflation. Judging from the stagflation of developed economies such as the United States, Europe and Japan in history, stagflation mainly stems from insufficient supply and improper economic policies. To cope with economic stagnation, we need to relax monetary policy to stimulate the economy, while to cope with inflation, we need to tighten monetary policy to curb demand, thus putting monetary policy in a dilemma.

2. At present, the possibility of stagflation in the world economy is increasing. According to a questionnaire survey conducted by Bank of America (BoA) on Wall Street fund managers, 92% of the respondents said that "the American economy will face stagflation", and BoA advised investors to sell stocks and reserve cash in 223.

3. According to the IMF's forecast, in 222 and 223, about one third of the global economy will shrink for at least two consecutive quarters. By 226, the global output may lose as much as 4 trillion US dollars, which is roughly equivalent to the size of Germany's economy. At the same time, the forecast of global inflation rate in 223 is still as high as 6.5%. High inflation not only pushes up the living cost of residents, but also has a significant impact on the global wealth distribution.

4. As the largest issuer of dollar-denominated debt, the United States has benefited from this round of inflation by 2 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 1% of US GDP. Raising interest rates to curb inflation will quickly increase the financing costs of governments in various countries, thus further dampening the momentum of economic recovery. It is estimated that to reduce the global inflation rate to the target level of 5%, central banks need to raise interest rates by another 2 percentage points, which may reduce the world economic growth rate to .5% in 223.