My Shuanghui fell by more than 4%, and I was a little panicked. Bought it at the high point of the pig cycle. However, after listening to the teacher's analysis, I was a lot more indifferent. Why? From the following simple analysis.

1. shuanghui development is a cyclical industry.

The pig cycle in China is generally 3-4 years, and it has been three times in history from 26 to 218.

why is this cycle so responsive? Because of African swine fever, the supply of pork is low for environmental reasons, and Covid-19 hoards a lot of food, which leads to the shortage of supply.

pig cycle supply chain, such as feed soybean meal upstream, pig industry; Slaughtering industry in the middle reaches; Downstream meat products and so on. Pork is a matter of people's livelihood, and the output of pork is closely related to the output, the cost of breeding and the eating habits.

pork accounts for more than half of all meat, and capital is profit-seeking. The pig cycle is on the rise, and the bonus will trigger many enterprises to raise pigs, such as Alibaba Cloud. When the extremes meet, when it goes down to a certain stage, our country will make adjustments. From July 18 to now, it has acquired more than 5, tons of pork. Mr. Missing Market is adjusting the price of pork.

ii. management analysis.

some time ago, the prince was removed from Shuanghui. The founder of Wanzhou International's pig slaughterhouse abroad can be described as a ride, accounting for 18% of the market. Let me talk about Chairman Bandung first.

Bandung is a legend. In 1984, he brought a company with debts of 2.4 billion back to life. On a train, I saw a 1-gram ham sausage sold for two dollars. At that time, he thought, I can sell this ham sausage for one dollar and ten cents to reduce the content of pork. By increasing the amount of starch and reducing the proportion of pork, the price is declining, and the starch king appears. After several years, the company came back to life, and later it grew bigger and bigger, and it was also the parent company of Shuanghui.

the reason why the prince was dismissed was not because the prince hit the financial cabinet with his head, but because they had differences in management. Bandung, which is vigorous and vigorous, is sure that one mountain cannot accommodate two tigers, so it is used as a reason to remove the prince.

I think the chairman is still very strategic and thoughtful. Being able to bring the company back to life and doing it far ahead, I think the management has no problem.

III. Shuanghui

Shuanghui mainly deals in meat products and slaughter, with the ratio of 4:6. China's top five slaughterhouses account for 7% of the country, while the United States accounts for more than 6%. The concentration of meat products, the top 4*** accounts for 23.1%, Shuanghui accounts for 15%, compared with the 18% of Wanzhou International, the leading meat product company in the United States, there is still much room for improvement.

iv. how about the development of meat products in the future?

First of all, the demand is relatively large, and pork accounts for more than 5% of meat consumption.

Secondly, low-temperature meat products are between 7-1℃ and are rich in nutrition, but their shelf life is short. High-temperature meat products have a long shelf life at 11-12, but they lose a lot of nutrients. With the improvement of living standards, more people will consider nutritional factors in the future.

The proportion of low-temperature meat products in China, the United States and Japan is over 9%, while that in China is only 37%. The low-temperature meat products in China have a relatively large development space.

future development?

1. supported by the national policy, in March of 2, the state strongly encouraged the transportation of pigs to meat, supporting the slaughter and processing industry nearby, and improving the infrastructure of cold chain logistics.

2. Large-scale farming, the cost of large-scale farming of a pig is more than 2 yuan higher than the cost of raising a pig alone, and the profit of large-scale farming is more than 2 yuan.

3. the state strictly punishes enterprises that slaughter indiscriminately and have low efficiency and productivity.

if the investment logic has not changed? The fundamentals haven't changed? The company's development management has not changed? Just take it according to the situation.

if you can't accept the pig cycle and can't hold it, it's easy to cut the meat out. Mr. Market can't predict, so he has to look at the actual situation. Make decisions that suit you according to your own situation and investment philosophy.