Recently, with the plummeting price of steel, the pressure on steel mills has gradually increased. On the one hand, downstream users and traders have directly reduced the number of steel orders to avoid the risk of falling steel prices. On the other hand, the cost of raw materials has been running at a high level, and steel prices

The factory has been squeezed by product backlog and rising costs, and production efficiency has declined sharply. Coupled with the impact of the recent financial tightening policy in the money market, steel production companies are generally tight on funds. As Anshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. launched the first major price reduction of steel mills, Baosteel continued

The November price was also announced, which also dropped the ex-factory price sharply. We hope to use price leverage to stimulate user orders and seize market share.

In such a situation where all parties are fighting, whether the steel market price trend in October will stop falling and stabilize or continue to fall, this needs careful study.

Below, the author will make a brief analysis for everyone based on some information at hand, hoping to help everyone see clearly the current chaotic steel market price trend.

Macroeconomic control may be relaxed. This round of macroeconomic control is the first rising cycle after we joined the WTO. The Chinese economy is integrated with the world economy, and domestic problems have become internationalized; economic problems are no longer something that economists can solve.

The problem.

The assessment indicators of macro-control departments are not short-term assessments, but long-term assessments.

Our country is now at a turning point of major changes in the world economy. The world economy has experienced changes that are half sea water and half flames.

The problems faced by emerging countries and developed countries are completely different now.

The economies of developed countries are in recession, and the economies of developing countries are overheating, resulting in economic changes.

The United States believes that China can pose a comprehensive challenge to it in the future.

Any time an emerging country challenges existing hegemony, that is when the game begins.

The rise in food prices and oil prices led by the United States has hurt emerging countries the most.

In the short term, the United States will create inflation in China and try to reduce China's industrialization process; it will also allow the RMB to appreciate, making China's macroeconomic control very difficult.

The biggest problem of the United States' impact on China's economy is the problem of attracting foreign goods. Secondly, it deepens the difficulty of China's policy decision-making. Thirdly, it will have an impact on both commodity prices and asset prices.

The biggest risk for China now is the hot money problem.

It is expected that as GDP continues to grow next year, our profit margin growth rate will decline relatively quickly.

On September 12, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide in August was not optimistic, with a year-on-year growth of only 12.8%, a drop of 4.7 percentage points from the same period last year, and a new low in six years.

Immediately afterwards, the central bank adopted a "double reduction" policy, lowering loan interest rates and deposit reserve ratios.

The above data can show that industrial production has slowed down significantly. At this time, adopting a "double reduction" approach can improve the current situation by enhancing liquidity and reducing capital prices.

Signs of loosening of monetary policy can be seen from the second-quarter monetary policy implementation report released by the central bank on August 15 and the recent reduction in the hedging strength of the central bank's open market operations.

CPI in August has dropped to a 14-month low of 4.9%, lower than market expectations. CPI growth has fallen for the fourth consecutive month, hitting a new low in the past 14 months.

After inflation declines to a certain extent, the goal of macroeconomic policies should shift to maintaining economic growth.

In fact, the central bank's move undoubtedly reflects the macroeconomic thinking of "maintaining growth" and "controlling inflation."

The significance of "double reduction" is reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, lowering the loan interest rate will reduce the financing cost of the entire society, and lowering the deposit reserve ratio will increase the liquidity of the entire society, which is conducive to improving the economic vitality of the entire society; on the other hand, , the policies reflect the differences, especially the adjustment policy on the deposit reserve ratio, which has a relatively clear positive effect on accelerating post-disaster reconstruction and increasing financial support for small and medium-sized advantageous enterprises, although in terms of specific economic operations, " The "double reduction" policy will not have an immediate effect, but it is at least a clear signal that the regulatory authorities recognize the seriousness of the current economic problems. The policies that suppressed currency liquidity in the early stage are gradually taking effect, but the specific economic situation The operating environment has undergone major changes. Therefore, a series of previous regulatory policies need to be adjusted to cope with the current severe economic environment. The demand for steel products is closely related to the economic growth rate and the stage of development. In the stage of industrialization and urbanization, due to the current decline in economic growth, especially the decline in my country's real estate industry, the balance of domestic steel demand is not optimistic. Although the current economic policy has been relaxed, it can buffer the economic downturn and have a positive impact on steel demand. , thus playing a certain buffering role in the current falling steel prices. The economic environment has caused the growth rate of steel supply and demand to decline. In the past two months, my country's crude steel production has continued to decline due to the impact of falling prices and the Olympics. Crude steel production only increased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, down 4.4 million tons from June. And because exports reached a record 7.68 million tons in August, the apparent domestic steel consumption in August fell by 3.2 percentage points from the same period last year.