However, after entering 20 16, frequent default has become the ghost of fixed income market. Coupled with the recent economic recovery, the stock market bottomed out, the fixed income market suffered a round of selling, and bond funds were not spared. The vicious circle of falling, redemption, selling, falling again, redeeming again and continuing to sell is being staged.
In particular, the recent breach of contract of Northeast Special Steel broke through two lines of defense: national development underwriting and local state-owned enterprise issuers. It can be said that under the background of de-capacity and structural adjustment, the profit rate of industrial enterprises has decreased, and the risk of cash flow breakage has increased. There is no kind of securities or issuers that are absolutely safe.
Li Huaijun, an analyst at First Venture Securities, said that when the current debt maturity increases, enterprises are more inclined to issue short-term financing bonds to make up for the liquidity demand. From the perspective of investors, due to the influence of unpredictable events, banks are reluctant to lend and liquidity is tightened, which makes the possibility of short-term debt default rise.
In fact, since the beginning of 20 16, the proportion of short-term financing bills has increased in several credit risk events. Since the default of 20 16 shanshui ultra-short melting, many risk events related to ultra-short melting have occurred, which is in sharp contrast with the short melting and non-default ultra-short melting just one year ago.
If the credit risk of "15 Yurun CP00 1" still has a long gestation period, then the default events this year are manifested as short-term actual controller change, equity disputes and other black swan events that suddenly hit overcapacity enterprises, thus making the already deteriorating enterprises worse. The defaulting enterprises even include those that are still profitable. Due to the high asset-liability ratio and the large scale of accounts receivable relative to short-term debts.
April is the centralized disclosure period of the annual report and the starting point of the annual rating adjustment window. Investors will pay close attention to the risks of industries with high asset-liability ratio, poor issuer qualification and overcapacity due in the second quarter. In these industries, bonds with scattered equity and low shareholders' will will be particularly concerned. Investors will guard against and control the liquidity risk caused by sudden credit events and interest rate risks.
In addition, some investors worry that the concentrated exposure of default, especially after the normalization of default by central enterprises, state-owned enterprises or subsidiaries, will further stimulate the moral hazard of issuers' default, and even strive for the opportunity of "debt-to-equity swap" by breaking debts. The market institutions' concerns about the staged centralized exposure of default have formed a unanimous expectation, which will generally slow down the pace of allocation, even actively shrink the scale and leverage in stages, or be redeemed and passively lighten their positions.
The embarrassment of bond funds
The current situation of credit bond market is completely opposite to that in the second half of 20 15. At that time, under the background of the depressed stock market and increasingly loose monetary policy, a large amount of funds poured into the fixed income market. For ordinary small and medium-sized investors, bond funds have become the best channel to enter this market.
Similarly, the return of 20 15 bond funds excites investors, and funds with returns above 10% abound. However, with the reversal of the bond market situation, the bond fund with a net value of 20 16 is already the best choice for investors.
Many investors are anxious, so it is inevitable to redeem a large number of fund shares. In order to stabilize investors' mood, some funds recently held an emergency investor briefing.
At the investor briefing of a fund company with the top asset management scale in China 10, the fund manager told investors that the reasons for the recent decline in the price of credit bonds and the increase in the yield are not only frequent defaults, but also the possibility of economic recovery, continued loose monetary policy and bottoming out of the stock market.
When talking about whether the bond fund issued by this fund company "touched the thunder", the fund manager made it clear that it did not. However, he said humorously that the company's fixed income department set up a bond risk assessment team as early as ten years ago, and the number of personnel basically remained at around 15. In the first ten years of its establishment, this department was basically useless, but in the last two years, it has become more and more busy, which can be described as "ten years to raise soldiers, and today to use soldiers."
It is observed that although the net value of bond funds issued by this fund company in 20 16 is still at a good level among all funds, investors do not buy it.
Some investors bluntly asked that the net value of a fund increased by 65,438+03% in 2065,438+05, but this year he only expected a return of 5%. I wonder if the fund manager has confidence.
For this problem, the fund manager had to talk about Wang Gu, once again expounded the current macroeconomic situation and the situation of the bond market, and finally added a sentence, "The first way for bond funds to increase their income, that is, the way to buy low-rated high-yield bonds, has been blocked. In the future, they can only increase their income by buying long-term bonds and repurchasing bonds."
Of course, the fund manager's answer can't satisfy investors, and some investors ask more directly whether bond funds should be redeemed.
The fund company's answer to this is that the redemption rate of bond funds is high, and the redemption rate within half a year is 2%. I hope investors will decide carefully.
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