Example 1: Primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong
Taking small and medium-sized enterprises in Hong Kong as an example, this paper explains how index funds estimate their net worth. The following figure shows the net value of Tian Tian Fund website Hong Kong Small and Medium-sized 20 16. 12.28. Investors can only see the net value on the 27th. If we want to buy the fund in the market on the 28th, if the transaction price is lower than the actual net value, it is equivalent to buying at a discount. How can we estimate its net value?
65438+net value on February 28th (a) = 65438+net value on February 27th (b) * (1+the small and medium-sized stock index of Standard & Poor's Hong Kong China rises and falls on February 28th (c)+the exchange rate of Hong Kong dollar against RMB rises and falls on February 28th (d)).
Suppose we consider whether to invest in small and medium-sized enterprises in Hong Kong when the market closes, we can estimate their net worth according to the above formula. February 27th 14:55, where B= 1.0338, C= 1% and D=0.05% are substituted into the formula to calculate A =.
Since A-shares closed at 15:00 and Hong Kong stocks closed at 16:00, as long as Hong Kong's small and medium-sized index did not plummet at the end of the session, there was a certain discount (safety mat) for buying. Due to the continuous rise of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hong Kong, the net value of 1.0456 on February 28th was 1. 14% (the actual increase was 1.0338+05%). The actual discount of 1. 15% at the price of 1.0338 is a very cost-effective transaction.
If we want to estimate Huabao's net oil and gas value, we can change the index tracked in the formula to oil and gas exploitation index (XOP), and if we want to estimate the net oil value in South China, we can change the index tracked in the formula to American crude oil continuous index (NXCLYO). Of course, this is only an estimate, because there will be some errors in the fund's index tracking, and the transaction friction loss will also affect the net oil value.
Example 2: Standard & Poor's 500
There is a strange phenomenon in the market. The highest premium of Standard & Poor's 500(5 13500) actually exceeds 30%. As can be seen from the following figure, the net value of Standard & Poor's 500 was only 1.448 1 on Jun. 5438+Feb. 9, 2009, and the transaction price was actually close to 2 yuan, and many investors kept buying.
The main reason for the analysis is that the S&P 500 suspended its subscription due to the limitation of foreign exchange quota, so the speculation funds unscrupulously speculated the on-site funds to such a high premium, and there were too many A-share gamblers.
Once the S&P 500(5 13500) started to buy, the following trend appeared:
Do you know how to estimate the net value of QDII funds?
Although it was adjusted for five consecutive days, the closing price of 65438+February 29th was 1.6 15, and the premium rate was still as high as 12%. 65438+February 27 and 65438+February 28 plunge are still bought by many investors, and basically eliminating the premium requires a daily limit. I wonder where the courage of these buyers comes from. According to the formula in the example 1, calculate the net value of Standard & Poor's 500 =1.4441* (1-0.83%+0.05%) =1.433.
If investors don't understand the truth, blindly following the trend will cause huge losses.
abstract
When we invest in a target, we must do more research and not start betting in a daze. Understanding the net value calculation principle of QDII funds has the following advantages:
1. Buy the investment target at a discount and increase the safety mat.
2. When the investment target has substantial premium, it can be sold or rotated (for example, the high premium of 5 13500 is rotated to 16 1 125).
3. Avoid blindly buying with the wind, causing huge losses.