The International Monetary Fund continued the overall forecast in the World Economic Outlook report in April this year, and believed that the global growth recovery continued to make progress as scheduled. It is predicted that the world economy will increase by 3.5% in 20 17 and 3.6% in 20 18.
The report pointed out that although the global growth forecast remains unchanged, the contribution of countries to global growth has changed. Among them, in view of the uncertainty of the prospect of Britain's exit from the EU negotiations and the tepid performance of Britain's economy, the IMF lowered its forecast for Britain's economic growth in 20 17 from the previous 2% to 1.7%. The IMF's forecast for US economic growth has also declined compared with April, mainly because the Trump administration's fiscal policy expansion is lower than earlier expectations.
In contrast, the IMF raised the growth forecast of the euro zone, because the growth performance of major economies in the euro zone, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, was generally stronger than expected at the end of 20 16 and the beginning of 20 17, indicating that the economic growth momentum of these economies is strong.
China's growth forecast has also been raised, reflecting China's strong growth in the first quarter of 20 17 and the expectation of China's continuous financial support.
The International Monetary Fund believes that Britain's withdrawal from the EU will have a long-term negative impact on the British economy. Maurice Obst Feld, chief economist of the IMF and former Obama economic adviser, said that the current forecast for the British economy is still based on the relatively optimistic forecast of Britain's withdrawal from the EU negotiations; However, the prospects of the negotiations are still unclear. If Britain and the EU can't reach a compromise, Britain's economic prospects will be even bleaker.
Last week, Britain and the European Union officially opened the first round of negotiations on Britain's withdrawal from the EU in Brussels. However, due to different positions on many key issues such as Britain's "breakup fee" for withdrawing from the EU, the EU's treatment of British citizens, and negotiation procedures, the negotiations failed to make substantial progress. Analysts here generally believe that Britain's referendum on Britain's withdrawal from the EU and Macron's election as French president have enhanced the centripetal force and cohesion of the 27 EU countries from both positive and negative aspects. Coupled with the stabilization and improvement of the euro zone economy, it has further enhanced the EU's self-confidence, thus making the EU's position in the negotiations on Britain's withdrawal from the EU even tougher. The EU intends to make an example by punishing Britain's "deviant" behavior. On the other hand, in Britain, due to the failure of the ruling Conservative Party in the early parliamentary elections, domestic political polarization has become increasingly serious, and it has become more fragile in the game with the European Union.
The latest World Economic Outlook report of the International Monetary Fund is tantamount to throwing cold water on the British government. The situation of Britain's withdrawal from EU negotiations is more severe and complicated.
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