According to incomplete statistics, many cities have introduced automobile consumption stimulus policies, ranging from replacement subsidies, increasing indicators, new energy subsidies to car purchase subsidies for all models. Different cities face different situations and adopt different stimulus policies. For example, Beijing is mainly aimed at the redemption of the old three models, Shanghai is to increase the indicators, new energy charging subsidies and national six product replacement subsidies, and as for second-and third-tier cities, most of them directly introduce cash subsidies. In addition, on April 23, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, and the subsidies for new energy vehicles were extended to the end of 2022; On April 28th, Guangdong Province officially promulgated the detailed rules of "Cars Going to the Countryside", subsidizing consumers and automobile products that meet the requirements, including 1 10,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 5,000 yuan for fuel vehicles.
In the development of China's automobile industry, it seems that there has never been a day when subsidies are paid in full. In theory, this generation of consumers should be the happiest, but in fact, how much influence does "subsidy" have on your decision to buy a car? Judging from my inquiries and investigations of friends around me, whether there is a car purchase plan, in their eyes, the biggest influence on the car purchase decision is not the subsidy or the preferential margin of the terminal, but the company's prospects and its own income. Because in this special period, too much uncertainty makes them feel insecure about this "big consumption" of cars. But why do the state, local governments and car companies resolutely choose to introduce various policies to stimulate car consumption at this time? Will it be a good time for us to buy a car? In order to better analyze this problem, I decided to analyze it with the team members from the perspective of financial management.
Before understanding why we should stimulate automobile consumption, we should first understand a few small knowledge of economics; Inflation is simply understood as assuming that there are 100 eggs in the market and the total amount of money is 100 yuan, then one egg is equivalent to 1 yuan; If the total amount of money is increased to 200 yuan, the price of eggs will become 2 yuan. If the total amount of money increases and prices rise, it is inflation; On the contrary, the total amount of money decreases and prices fall, which is deflation. What do inflation and deflation have to do with ordinary people? If you add a condition to the above example, at first, 50 yuan was in your pocket in the total amount of money of 100 yuan, and later the variable of 200 yuan's total amount of money increased to 100 yuan was in someone else's pocket. At this time, when the price of eggs rises to 2 yuan each, the money in your pocket will depreciate by 50% (originally 50 yuan can buy 50 eggs, only 25 after inflation).
Inflation is a social phenomenon, which has existed since the birth of money. The above examples are only for a simple understanding of inflation. In fact, there are many reasons for inflation. We didn't do anything here. What we need to know is that controllable inflation is beneficial to economic development. When we know that the money in hand will continue to depreciate, we can promote people's consumption or reinvestment and let the money continue to flow into the economic cycle; When the economy rises, the unemployment rate will be low, the income will rise, the income will rise, the expenditure on consumption and reinvestment will further increase, and the people's living standards will also improve.
So what kind of situation are we facing now? Under the epidemic situation, people's willingness to consume is further reduced, the speed of currency circulation is reduced, the merchants in the market are under great operating pressure, and the factories are faced with the dilemma of oversupply of products, and they are forced to cut production or even reduce labor and material costs. If the situation continues to develop, people's income will decrease and the unemployment rate will be high. In fact, the overall situation in China is still good. The latest unemployment rate data of the National Bureau of Statistics is 5.9%, which is not too bad, especially compared with other countries, especially the United States. The unemployment rate has reached the highest level since the Great Depression, and may fall below 20% (1 five people are unemployed). (Interested partners can learn more about the "price and salary spiral")
Because inflation needs more people to participate in consumption and production, and according to Fisher equation MV=PT, when the consumption desire is low and the currency circulation speed slows down, in order to ensure the stability of economy, employment and society, we can appropriately increase the total amount of money and activate the economic operation by creating certain inflation. Small partners who are concerned about international trends must know that under the influence of the epidemic, more and more countries have introduced economic stimulus policies, but unlike overseas, they mainly introduce subsidies and coupons to stimulate consumption; The latter can fully use "money" for economic stimulus, which means that the increased "money" is consumed as expected (it will expire if it is not consumed), which is conducive to boosting the speed of money circulation and economic vitality; But the former can't accurately control the function of money, no matter whether it is consumed or buried under which tree.
In a series of economic stimulus policies, the automobile industry, as a national economic expenditure industry, naturally becomes the top priority of economic stimulus policies; As early as March 2, the Guiding Opinions on Orderly Promoting Enterprises in the Industrial Communication Industry to Resume Work and Production issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly pointed out that it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional mass consumption such as automobiles, encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number of automobile license plates, and drive the consumption of automobiles and related products.
To be sure, 2020 will be a year of "great irrigation" of global currency. No developed country, we can count without sending money during the epidemic; Under the background of globalization, how will we be affected when the world floods? Personal opinion will have an impact, but it is far from being as exaggerated as I thought; In particular, combined with the unemployment rate and other relevant data and the current domestic epidemic situation, the overall domestic situation is still improving; Just like the food problem that has been raging not long ago, it is rare that supermarkets are still promoting rice. Some grain exporting countries restrict exports, which will not affect our food and clothing problem, but whether we eat well or not is a matter of opinion.
The country can give us basic protection, but in the context of globalization, no country will be an island, there will always be influence, and we will feel it. An unremarkable shirt may be made of American raw materials, processed in Southeast Asia, and finally sold in domestic stores. The brand responsible for sales may be Japanese or European. The cost of any link involved here is fluctuating, and the consumers who finally buy it can understand it. Similar to the recent oil crisis, the only difference is that the oil crisis in the past was in short supply, but now it is in oversupply. In such an environment, the test of the automobile industry is the challenge of the globalization of the automobile supply chain. In the early stage, it may only be a problem of resumption of production and import and export, and in the later stage, it may be a problem of inflation and cost, including production cost, research and development cost, logistics cost and so on.
For consumers who intend to buy imported automobile products, they must have felt the impact of the epidemic; At present, the global epidemic continues. Before the real turning point comes, the global economy is still in great uncertainty, and this uncertainty is a haze over the global automobile market. In the domestic market, according to the news of the National Development and Reform Commission on April 9, major domestic auto companies have fully resumed work, and the daily output has gradually recovered to more than 75% in the same period last year. From the dealer's point of view, the dealer's orders have recovered to more than 65% of the normal level. On the whole, the resumption of automobile production has been fully started, and the market sales are also recovering. Relying on the advantages of global factories and the world's largest automobile market, with the continuous improvement of domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, China market has now become a safe haven for global automobile enterprises, which is of great benefit to consumers, businesses, automobile enterprises and markets.
Although it is far from being able to speculate on the global impact of this epidemic, judging from the history of human anti-epidemic, human beings have experienced too many epidemics in history, from the Black Death, Spanish flu, Justinian plague, Philip Anthony plague, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, cholera to Russian flu, and so on, which claimed millions of lives every time. Those who have experienced SARS and are experiencing the COVID-19 epidemic believe that most people have the same experience as me, that is, the number of casualties caused by the epidemic is not the most terrible, but the momentum when the epidemic occurred and the collapse of people's confidence in the face of the epidemic.
Looking at the epidemic situation in recent years, every epidemic situation will always be accompanied by economic growth; Every epidemic is a crisis. If we can't treat it rationally, then "crisis" is only "crisis" and there is no "opportunity". Therefore, in the face of the crisis, we must first treat it rationally and calmly analyze and study it. In 2003, China's GDP accounted for less than 5% of the world, and in 20 19, China's GDP accounted for more than 16% of the world. China's performance in the epidemic plays a vital role in global epidemic prevention and control and economic boost. At present, measures to subsidize or stimulate consumption are all means to boost the economy, and every consumer who participates in boosting the economy is contributing to the stability of the domestic economy and society.
There is no doubt that we have passed the most dangerous period of domestic epidemic, so where is our "opportunity"? For China, it is an "opportunity" to show the demeanor of a big country in the epidemic, actively resume work and production, boost the economy and identify new infrastructure. What about consumers? First of all, consumers should look at the domestic epidemic trend objectively and boost their confidence in consumption, work and life; As the Serbian President said in an interview, "In China, as you can see, people are always more important than things." We made huge economic sacrifices in the early stage of the epidemic, and now the domestic epidemic continues to improve, and we are now facing a battle to restore economic normality. As the German Times Weekly commented, China is now trying to find a balance: take the epidemic seriously, but not at the expense of the economy.
Did you feel the recovery of domestic economy during the May Day holiday? Not long ago, the International Monetary Fund released the World Economic Outlook, which drastically lowered the global economic growth forecast this year and placed high hopes on the resilience and recovery of China's economy. In fact, by the end of April, the average operating rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in China had reached 99. 1%, and the re-employment rate reached 95. 1%. In April, the purchasing managers' index of China manufacturing industry was 50.8%, which was higher than the threshold for two consecutive months. In the investigation of more than 8,200 key foreign-funded enterprises in China by the Ministry of Commerce, as of April 28th, 76.6% of them had a compound rate of return of over 70%. All these show that a series of measures to restore work and stimulate the economy in China are achieving practical results.
Looking at the present from the perspective of the future, the domestic economy will continue to improve, and confidence should be established; Just like the May Day holiday this year, it's time to go out and spend money on the premise of epidemic prevention. Personally, in the process of actively boosting the economy in China, if there is a consumption in your short-term plan that is just needed, you may wish to start with the east wind of subsidies and stimulus policies; Because subsidies and stimulus policies will not be the normal state of the market, this can be seen from the subsidy adjustment of new energy vehicles. Although subsidies have been postponed, the decline of subsidies and the threshold restrictions of subsidies are also warning new energy vehicle companies that subsidies are not gold medals to avoid death. In addition, in related reports, China's inflation target in 2020 is likely to remain at around 3% in the same period last year, which is an arduous task this year. Inflation means that many things will appreciate, but money will not. Maybe what we should consider is how to increase our income during the economic upswing after the epidemic.
Facing inflation, consumption and investment are the mainstream countermeasures; Only in the case of deflation, cash and bonds are good choices. Looking at the present from the perspective of the future, do you think "is it a good time to buy a car?" Has this question been answered?
(Figure Source Network, Invasion and Deletion)
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.