It can be seen from this data that the housing ownership rate of urban families in China is very high. Basically every household has a house. I believe that a small number of families without housing will also have welfare housing provided by the government, and urban families have basically achieved "living and living".
Of course, we will find that more than 40% of families with houses have two or more houses. If there is only one house, we can understand that the house is just for buyers and the house is self-occupied. But if there are two or more houses, the house is obviously not only for living, but also has the nature of very investment.
According to the increase in house prices in the past 20 years, it is naturally no problem to hold two houses, and you can even make a fortune by holding two or more houses. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average price of commercial housing nationwide in 2000 was only about 2,000 yuan. In 2020, the national average price of commercial housing has reached 9860 yuan, and today's housing price is basically about five times that of 20 years ago. Of course, this is only the increase of the national average house price. In fact, the price increase in many cities far exceeds the national average price increase, and the price increase can even reach 15 times or even more than 20 times.
However, two major changes have taken place in the property market: first, the era of skyrocketing housing prices has passed, and today's property market is dominated by stability, and the price increase is much narrower than in the past; Then the era of rising house prices has passed, and now the development trend of the property market is differentiation, with both cities with rising house prices and cities with falling house prices.
Based on the two major changes in the property market, for those who now hold two or more houses, holding real estate will not only fail to realize wealth appreciation, but will become a huge burden for families. Housekeeping is a double-edged sword. When house prices rise sharply, owning a house can increase wealth. However, when the price increase narrows or even falls, multi-suite owners will bear a huge burden because of the huge cost of holding their houses.
Economist Liang Zhonghua said: Now the cost of owning a house is very high, which can basically reach 6%-8%. In other words, if the price increase is lower than this level, it is basically a loss. The cost of holding a house mainly includes three aspects: first, the interest cost of mortgage, which is the biggest cost of holding a house; Then the depreciation cost of the house, with the passage of time, the value of the house will gradually decrease; Finally, there are transaction costs, property costs, maintenance funds and other costs of the house.
Let's calculate all the costs of selling a house that has been held for three years:
Case: Wang Mai bought a house with a square meter of 100, and the total house price was 1 10,000. He chose 30 years of equal principal and interest, and the mortgage interest rate was 5.635% (benchmark interest rate rose 15%).
1, mortgage interest cost:
The mortgage in the first year is 48,408.18 yuan, including interest cost of 39,209.84 yuan;
In the second year, the mortgage payment was 48,408.6438+08 yuan, of which the interest cost was 38,667.338+0 yuan;
In the third year, the mortgage was 48,408.18 yuan, of which the interest cost was 38 1 15.23 yuan.
The total interest cost for three years is 1 15992.98 yuan, which is almost120,000 yuan.
2. Depreciation cost of the house:
Calculate the depreciation cost of the house according to 65438+ 0.5% of the total house price every year. The three-year depreciation cost of the house is 45,000.
3. Transaction costs, property costs and maintenance funds.
Assume that the property fee is 7200 yuan per square meter of 2 yuan for three years; The deed tax is charged at 1.5% of the total house price, namely 1.5 million; The maintenance fund is generally around 8 thousand. Plus other expenses, the total cost is about 40 thousand.
If you add up the holding costs of these three aspects, the holding cost in three years has exceeded 200,000, and the average annual holding cost has also exceeded 6%. In other words, if the house price rises by about 20% after three years, you will not make any money by holding this house, and you will also lose the transaction cost when selling the house.
The following is how some depreciation costs are reflected: if the house price rises by 20%, Xiao Wang's house could have been sold for 654.38+0.2 million, but because the house has been depreciated, he may only be able to buy 654.38+065.438+0.5 million or even lower. When the second-hand housing market is depressed, the bargaining space of second-hand housing will be very large.
I believe that many people who invest in real estate speculation have never calculated the real cost of holding a house at all, and feel that they can make money by lying down as long as they buy a house. If the cost of holding a house is really calculated, I believe that not many people dare to invest in real estate casually. Who can afford such a high holding cost every year?
Judging from the cost of holding a house, it is really difficult to make money if the house price rises less than 6%, but now the property market is really very stable, and there are only a handful of cities in China where the house price rises more than 6%. For multi-suite holders, it may be really difficult to make money by holding real estate. On the contrary, the house will bring them a huge burden, and they need to spend a lot of money to maintain the mortgage every month.
Of course, for multi-suite owners, there may be a bigger "challenge" in the future, that is, the property tax may be introduced in the future. There has been a lot of news about real estate tax recently. First, at the end of 2020, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences issued the China Housing Development Report (2020-202 1), in which it was suggested that some hot cities and cities where real estate speculation has been repeatedly prohibited should take the lead in speeding up the pilot levy of property tax and strive to levy property tax during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period. At the same time, Ma Guangyuan, an economist, also believes that the reason why the property tax was delayed in the past was that the time was not yet ripe, but now the time for levying the property tax is basically ripe, and it is very likely to be levied during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period.
Property tax has always been a "sword" hanging over the heads of real estate speculators. Now this "sword" is getting closer and closer to the head of the real estate speculators. Chou Baoxing, former vice minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, believes that property tax is an essential part of establishing and improving a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. From a specific point of view, property tax can stabilize housing prices and land prices, increase local fiscal revenue, and at the same time crack down on speculative real estate speculation, thus gradually achieving the goal of not speculating real estate.
For families with more than two suites, even if there is no property tax, the cost of holding a house has become a huge burden for families. In the future, with the introduction of property tax, the pressure of holding real estate will further increase. For multi-suite owners, the future will face great challenges.