One of the strategies to invest in commodities is to operate active monthly contracts and avoid inactive contracts. However, when the contract delivery deadline approaches, it must be moved to the activity month. In the context of inflation, far-month contracts are often higher than recent contracts. Thereby generating the cost of moving the warehouse. It is also the biggest obstacle to the operation of index funds.

I suggest that the idea of black swan be integrated into it, and the specific operation is as follows:

After holding the position for several months, approaching the delivery month, but not rising as expected, choose the opportunity to move the position:

When the warehouse moving cost is less than 4%, the warehouse can be moved, that is, the warehouse can be closed and a new warehouse can be opened at the same time;

When the cost of moving the warehouse is close to 10%, only close the warehouse, and the far-month contract will not open a new warehouse. Wait patiently for the arrival of the black swan and beat down the price of the far-month contract. If it doesn't shoot down, let it go. Look for other opportunities.

When the holding period price rises sharply, it is necessary to immediately raise the take profit point and firmly bite the price trend. When you encounter a big callback, you will inevitably encounter a take profit point. Profit out.

Then, overcome the anchoring psychology and rearrange the layout.

This concept is actually to overcome the weakness of index fund operation: the cost of moving positions is too high.