Purchasing managers' index is expressed as a percentage, and 50% is often used as the dividing point of economic strength: that is, when the index is higher than 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. When the index is below 50%, especially very close to 40%, there is a fear of economic depression. It is a very important auxiliary indicator among leading indicators. In addition to paying attention to the overall index, the price index paid and the price index collected in the purchasing managers' index are also regarded as one of the price indicators, and the employment index is more used to predict the unemployment rate and the performance of non-agricultural employees.
Research and application
Research and Application of China Purchasing Managers Index (CFLP-PMI)
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has become an important evaluation index of world economic activities and a barometer of world economic changes. The establishment of China Purchasing Managers Index (CFLP-PMI) plays a positive role in improving the monitoring system of China economy and even the world economy. Based on the survey of purchasing managers, PMI data can theoretically reflect the changes in the market. The analysis of each sub-index of CFLP PMI, the comparison with macroeconomic statistics and the comparison with industry statistics all show certain correlation or consistency. Therefore, CFLP-PMI can be used as a reference for decision-making and has good application value in formulating national economic policies, enterprise management and financial investment activities.
Purchasing managers index, purchasing managers index, CFLP, GDP, correlation coefficient, applied research, economic indicators.
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), as an internationally accepted economic monitoring index system, is usually used in parallel with gross domestic product (GDP), employment index, producer price index (PPI), new housing start/construction index (similar to domestic fixed assets investment index), exchange rate and stock index. , and has become an index of government, banks, enterprises and stocks.
Application of China Purchasing Managers Index
Under the condition of market economy, market subjects should pursue the principle of profit maximization. They believe that market subjects should make rational choices that are beneficial to the interests of enterprises under the circumstances of market changes. For example, they will make optimal arrangements for the next production cycle according to market fluctuations and market expectations, such as purchasing raw materials, hiring/layoffs, etc. These decisions need relevant basis. PMI data based on purchasing managers' survey can theoretically reflect the changes in the market and can be used as a reference for decision-making, provided that the data results can accurately reflect the reality.
First, the application premise of PMI
PMI survey data comes from the judgment of the purchasing manager of the enterprise according to the business situation, and there is a logical correlation between the indicators of the business operation. Theoretically, if the purchasing manager fills in the questionnaire carefully, his answers to different questions should reflect the operating conditions of the enterprise. PMI data results should show correlation or consistency in the following aspects:
There is logical consistency between 1 and PMI sub-index.
2. Compared with macroeconomic statistics, there is a logical connection between them.
3. Compared with industry statistics, there is a logical connection between them.
In addition, there are interactions among industries in the industrial chain, and PMI data can be analyzed in combination with the characteristics of industrial production methods.
These correlations and consistency are not only the accurate standards of the data itself, but also the guidelines and tools in the actual early warning application.
In the previous analysis and work, we can find that the data of CFLP-PMI can reflect good correlation in the above aspects, and it is ahead of other economic indicators.
In macroeconomic statistics, the results show that there is a good correlation between CFLP PMI and related industrial added value and other economic indicators, and the correlation coefficient is above 75%. Secondly, we extracted some data from the black, non-ferrous and various equipment manufacturing industries, and made a correlation and leading analysis with the actual economic statistics. We found that CFLP-PMI index has been ahead of the economic indicators of related industries for several months, and the oblique correlation coefficient of the two indicators is between 70% and 89%.
meaning
At present, more than 20 countries in the world have established PMI system, and relevant institutions have also begun to establish global index and euro zone index. PMI index and its business report have become an important evaluation index of world economic activities and a barometer of world economic changes.
With the rapid development of global economic integration, the rise of China's economy has attracted worldwide attention, and the trend and changes of China's economy are also becoming the focus of world attention. With the accelerated development of market economy, more and more multinational companies have entered China, and people have more and more demands for various economic data, especially for the accuracy, validity and objectivity of statistical data. This has also promoted China's gradual integration with the international community in statistical investigation and data dissemination, and acted in accordance with international practices. The establishment of China Purchasing Managers Index (CFLP-PMI) is a concrete manifestation of the gradual maturity of China's market economy in the statistical field, which has a positive effect on improving the monitoring system of China's economy and even the world economy.
Purchasing managers' index is an index compiled through the monthly survey and statistics of purchasing managers, which reflects the changing trend of the economy and is the leading indicator of economic monitoring. According to the analysis of American experts, PMI index is highly correlated with GDP, and its inflection point is often several months ahead of GDP. In the past 40 years, the peak of manufacturing PMI in the United States can be about 6- 18 months earlier than the business climax and 1-4 months earlier than the business downturn. In China, CFLP PMI, after more than a year of accumulated data analysis, has proved that it is ahead of GDP and other related indicators and before the arrival of economic climax.
PMI survey comes from the purchasing manager's analysis and judgment on the production and financial situation this month, which is the first-hand information of market changes. The CFLP-PMI China manufacturing survey index and data report are released on the first working day of each month, far ahead of the comprehensive statistics released by other government departments.
Undoubtedly, the establishment of PMI in China should learn from foreign experience and be in line with international standards. On the one hand, it should be consistent with foreign countries in survey methods, main index design and calculation methods, which is internationally comparable; On the other hand, China's national conditions must be considered for research and continuous improvement, so that CFLP-PMI research can better predict China's economic trend and industry operation trend, and provide a basis for China's macro-control and enterprise decision-making.
Compared with foreign countries, the related work of CFLP PMI started late. After more than two years of research preparation, the National Bureau of Statistics cooperated with China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) to conduct a pilot and preliminary investigation in 2004, and began a formal investigation in June 2005. In July of the same year, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (CFLP-PMI) was officially released.
Due to the short investigation time, the popularity and social influence of CFLP-PMI need to be improved, but its scientificity and rigor have been well verified. With the help of relevant materials, we have studied the investigation process and data results of CFLP PMI, in order to make this scientific index system apply to actual policies and investment guidance as soon as possible and make due contributions to the economic development of China.
guarantee
The correct result is inseparable from the correct process, so how is the investigation process of CFLP-PMI implemented? In order to let everyone know the rigor and scientificity of this survey process, the following are some key points of the CFLP-PMI survey process.
The sampling method ensures that the sampling method is an important criterion to determine the scientific objectivity of the survey results. PPS sampling method used in CFLP PMI survey is recognized as the most difficult and scientific sampling method. Before the official start of the survey, CFLP determined the sample number of each industry in strict accordance with the contribution of each industry to the added value of manufacturing industry on the basis of many surveys. On this basis, PPS sampling is carried out considering the regional distribution and enterprise type, and the sample enterprises are finally determined, which makes the sample number and distribution more scientific and the survey results more accurate.
The sample size ensures that the sample size of the current CFLP China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is 730. The number of samples far exceeds that of the United States, Britain, Japan, Singapore and other countries, accounting for 25% of the total sales revenue of the corresponding industrial enterprises, so it can accurately reflect the overall situation of the manufacturing industry and the economic operation trend of various industries. Once the enterprise changes due to merger and reorganization, the Bureau of Statistics immediately selects the same type of enterprises to participate in the investigation, ensuring the smooth and complete investigation channels.
In order to ensure the sample enterprises to participate in the survey, CFLP and the Bureau of Statistics have done a lot of preparation and training, and the accurate reporting rate is 99.6%, which is quite high in the field of survey, while the feedback rate of American manufacturing survey is generally 70%. Therefore, the survey results of CFLP are very representative, reflecting the development trend of industries, regions and the whole economy.
Quality assurance of the survey All purchasing managers who participated in the survey received formal training and could correctly understand the survey indicators. The quality of the recovered questionnaires was ensured by filling in the form directly on the Internet.
The rigorous process ensures that the National Bureau of Statistics and CFLP have made full preparations in China after doing a lot of research on the international PMI index and communicating with foreign experts. On the one hand, drawing lessons from foreign experience, on the other hand, considering China's national conditions, the questionnaire design, PPS sampling selection method, index category, index interpretation and other programs are determined. Conduct research and pilot projects in Shandong, Tianjin, Gansu and Qingdao respectively. After two rounds, the investigation plan was finally finalized. After collecting some data, we made a comparative analysis again, adjusted the scheme and details, and determined the final investigation and analysis procedure. The whole process is rigorous and scientific.
In addition, all data of CFLP-PMI are directly filled in by the purchasing person in charge of the manufacturing enterprise; The investigation and implementation of CFLP-PMI is initiated by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which is responsible for the core procedures such as model establishment, data summary analysis and research, and undertakes public release; The National Bureau of Statistics provides authoritative and mature research channel support. This independent survey also follows international practice to ensure the accuracy of data sources and results.
Important significance
-Speech at the Press Conference of Purchasing Managers Index of China Manufacturing Industry
Ding Junfa, Executive Vice President of China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, friends from the press: Hello!
First of all, on behalf of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the National Bureau of Statistics, I announce that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was officially released today. From now on, the first working day of each month will be the release day.
China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is compiled by National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. According to the cooperation and division of labor negotiated by both parties, the Enterprise Investigation Corps of the National Bureau of Statistics is responsible for the investigation, collection and processing of data; China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and China Logistics Information Center are responsible for data analysis, business report writing and social release. At present, the purchasing managers' index survey has been included in the official survey catalogue of the National Bureau of Statistics. I want to talk about the background and significance of establishing PMI in China.
Important significance
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an internationally accepted macroeconomic monitoring system, covering production and circulation, manufacturing and non-manufacturing fields, and plays an important role in monitoring and forecasting national economic activities. The significance of establishing China Purchasing Managers Index lies in:
First of all, it is conducive to international integration. At present, 22 countries including the United States, Britain and Singapore have developed PMI indices. After China's entry into WTO, China has increasingly become the world's procurement center and manufacturing center. China's economic development has become the main driving force of the world's economic development. How China's economic situation has become the focus of global attention, so China needs PMI, and the world also needs PMI from China. The establishment of PMI in China will be in line with international standards in two aspects: first, the integration of survey methods and statistical methods; The second is the comparability of data.
Second, it is conducive to the macro-control and prediction of the national economy and industrial economy. PMI is a rapid and timely leading indicator for countries, especially developed countries, to reflect economic activities. Through PMI, we can monitor and predict the problems and trends in economic and commercial activities in time, so that the government can establish macroeconomic trends on a scientific basis.
Third, it is conducive to guiding the procurement, production and business activities of enterprises. PMI survey involves production, procurement, inventory, sales, price and other links, reflecting the comprehensive business activities of enterprises. PMI and PMI-based business reports have a strong guiding role in the actual business activities of enterprises, which provide a reliable basis for strategic decision-making and business adjustment of enterprises, especially large enterprise groups.
Establishing characteristic PMI
Foreign PMI can be divided into manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries. According to the actual situation in China, we decided to implement manufacturing PMI first, and then implement non-manufacturing PMI when conditions are ripe. Establishing the index system of purchasing managers in China manufacturing industry is a pioneering work and a systematic project in China. In the process of establishing PMI, we focused on solving the following problems:
1, in line with international standards.
As mentioned above, at present, 22 countries in the world have established PMI index, and a relatively complete and standardized survey system, survey method and index system have been formed internationally. Therefore, China's PMI needs to be in line with international standards in terms of indicators and questionnaire design, survey methods and calculation methods, and refer to international common practices.
2, in line with China's national conditions.
Most foreign PMI indices are established in developed countries, and their national conditions are different from those of China. The establishment of PMI in China, on the one hand, should be in line with international standards, on the other hand, it should also take into account the actual situation in China, which is embodied in the following aspects.
(1) sampling method
PMI monitors the trend and trend of economic activities, and its results are closely related to sampling methods. We adopt a scientific sampling method-PPS sampling, and determine the sample number according to the contribution of various industries to the added value of manufacturing industry. On this basis, regional distribution and enterprise types are considered to ensure the rationality and scientificity of investigation and statistical methods.
In developed countries, PMI mainly investigates private enterprises, but in China's economy, state-owned enterprises still account for a large proportion. Therefore, in order to ensure the representativeness of enterprises, our survey samples are mainly large and medium-sized enterprises, and the proportions of joint-stock companies, limited liability companies, foreign-funded enterprises and state-owned enterprises account for 35.6%, 27.6%, 20.5% and 12.6% respectively.
In terms of regional distribution, eastern enterprises account for 63.6%, central enterprises account for 23.6%, and western enterprises account for 12.8%, which reflects the representativeness of economic regions.
According to the sampling results, we selected 730 enterprises and confirmed them one by one. In fact, 727 companies submit data every month, with a reporting rate of 99.6%.
(2) Made a lot of detailed preparations.
In the design of PMI questionnaire, we adopted the method of pilot first and then investigation: we adopted the method of twice, that is, we first wrote the questionnaire and asked the enterprises to try to fill it out through several provincial and municipal enterprise teams and put forward suggestions for revision; On this basis, the scheme is further revised, then submitted to the enterprise for trial filling, and then revised and improved, and finally the final scheme is formed. In this way, the thinking is clear and the goal is clear, which can not only meet the macro needs, but also take into account the needs of enterprises.
The Federation and the Bureau of Statistics also jointly carried out training work. Last June, 5438+065438+ 10 trained the personnel in charge of investigation in various provinces and cities. On this basis, local purchasing managers are trained by provinces and cities respectively.
3. A stable investigation channel has been established.
Whether a long-term, monthly survey can continue and achieve satisfactory results depends on the establishment of an investigation team and a stable investigation channel.
In the organization of the survey, the cooperation between China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics is adopted, which has three advantages: first, the guarantee of statistical methods; Second, the enterprise adjustment team has a nationwide investigation channel; Thirdly, the enterprise adjustment group has been conducting national economic surveys since 1998, with rich investigation experience and high personnel quality. At the same time, it adopts two levels of institutions, namely, municipal and provincial enterprise adjustment groups, to directly target enterprises, continuously track the survey objects, and adjust them at any time when changes occur, thus ensuring the accuracy and reliability of data sources.
4. Strengthen the authority of analysis.
In terms of data analysis, the Federation itself has a group of industry experts and authorities who have conducted in-depth research for three years; The enterprise adjustment team of the Bureau of Statistics also conducted a special study on the purchasing managers' index. At the same time, we also invited Mr. Zhang Liqun, a researcher of the State Council Development Research Center, as a special analyst to make our analysis more forward-looking and authoritative.
5. Adopt online direct reporting method.
In the PMI survey, we use high-tech means to let enterprise managers fill in the report directly online, which not only reduces the probability of manual input errors, but also speeds up the time of filling in and summarizing.
work progress
The compilation and construction of China Purchasing Managers Index has gone through more than three years, which can be roughly divided into three stages.
First stage
The first half of 2002-2004 was the research stage, with many exchanges and discussions with foreign experts as the focus, and a lot of research and publicity work was carried out. At the same time, the National Bureau of Statistics is also very concerned about the establishment of purchasing managers' index, and the enterprise investigation team has set up a special topic to entrust the enterprise adjustment teams in Tianjin, Shandong and Ningxia to conduct research.
stage Ⅱ
From the second half of 2004 to the end of 2004, the preparatory work for the upgrading stage of manufacturing PMI in China was completed, including: (1) establishing a cooperation model between China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the enterprise adjustment team of the National Bureau of Statistics; Completed the formulation of investigation scheme, the design of enterprise questionnaire and the formulation and implementation of enterprise sampling method; Carry out pilot work of some enterprises in Shandong, Tianjin and Ningxia provinces (cities); Hold a small seminar on purchasing managers' index in some provinces and cities in Qingdao; A national meeting on purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry was held, and the investigation work in June 5438+ 10 was deployed. The characteristics and application of purchasing manager index, purchasing manager questionnaire and online reporting of specific matters were trained.
The third stage
In June, 2005, 5438+ 10, the national survey of purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry was officially launched. After half a year's operation, three achievements have been made: first, a stable investigation channel has been established, and the purchasing managers of 727 enterprises in 20 major industries across the country have filled out questionnaires on a monthly basis. Secondly, establish a manufacturing PMI database, which is filled in online by the purchasing manager every month. After data verification and summary, a rich and complete PMI database of China manufacturing industry is established. Thirdly, according to the survey results, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and the enterprise adjustment team of the National Bureau of Statistics compiled the manufacturing purchasing manager index and wrote the enterprise report. According to the six-month index. In April 2005, we held an expert demonstration meeting, which was highly praised by experts from relevant ministries and research institutions.
At present, the work of purchasing managers' index in China has just started, and our work has only achieved initial results, but there are still some imperfections. For example, at the beginning of the establishment of PMI, due to insufficient time series data and no relevant historical data, how to determine the seasonal adjustment factors and adopt more scientific adjustment methods; For another example, in addition to meeting the macro needs of the country, we should also consider how to meet the needs of enterprises; The relationship between purchasing managers index and other national economic indicators needs to be explored in practice. In a word, the establishment of PMI in China is a long-term and basic work, which needs the accumulation of time and data and has a long way to go.
The work of purchasing managers' index in China has made a good start and a solid foundation. We believe that through the close cooperation between China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing and National Bureau of Statistics, and through our unremitting efforts, China's PMI index system will be successfully established and will certainly play its due role in national macroeconomic forecasting and business guidance.
We hope that more research institutions, financial institutions, experts, enterprises and news media will pay attention to the construction of China Purchasing Managers Index System in the future. Welcome to have extensive exchanges and cooperation with us.
Here, I would like to thank Hongfeng Group for its strong support to this work.
July 6(th), 2005
Brief description of PMI:
1。 Interpretation of main indicators
Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index compiled by statistical summary of the monthly survey results of purchasing managers in enterprises. It covers all aspects of enterprise procurement, production and circulation. It is one of the leading indexes commonly used in the world to monitor macroeconomic trends, and it has strong forecasting and early warning functions. PMI usually takes 50% as the demarcation point of economic strength. When the PMI is higher than 50%, it reflects the expansion of manufacturing economy. Less than 50%, reflecting the contraction of manufacturing economy.
2。 Field of investigation
It involves 365,438+0 industry categories of manufacturing industry in the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T 4754-2065,438+0), and selects 820 sample enterprises in China for investigation.
3。 investigation method
The purchasing manager of manufacturing industry adopts PPS (probability proportional to scale) sampling method, with manufacturing categories as the layer, and the industry sample size is allocated according to the proportion of its added value to the total added value of manufacturing industry, and the samples in the layer are extracted with the probability proportional to the income of the main business of the enterprise.
This survey adopts the method of online direct reporting, and conducts a questionnaire survey on the purchasing managers of enterprises once a month.
4。 Calculation method
The questionnaire of purchasing managers in manufacturing industry involves 1 1 questions such as production volume, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase volume, import, purchase price, raw material inventory, delivery date of employees and suppliers. The diffusion index is calculated separately for each question, that is, the percentage of enterprises that answer yes plus half of the percentage of enterprises that answer unchanged.
PMI is a comprehensive index, which is weighted by five diffusion indexes (classification indexes). The five classification indicators and their weights are determined according to their leading influence on the economy. Specifically, it includes: a new order index with a weight of 30%; Production index with a weight of 25%; Employee index, with a weight of 20%; Supplier delivery time index with weight of 15%; Raw material inventory index with weight of 10%. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is an inverse index, and the inverse operation is carried out when synthesizing the PMI comprehensive index.
5。 Seasonal adjustment
Purchasing manager survey is a monthly survey, which is influenced by seasonal factors and the data fluctuates greatly. The released PMI composite index and each sub-index are seasonally adjusted data.
Related report
20 15 1 month data
The purchasing managers' index (PMI) 1 20 15 of China's manufacturing industry released by China Research Center of Logistics, Purchasing and Service Industry of National Bureau of Statistics in February, 2065 was 49.8%, down 0.3 percentage point from last month, and fell below the critical point of 50% for the first time since February 12. China's non-manufacturing business activity index (PMI) was 53.7%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, but higher than the same period last year.
Multi-analysis shows that the PMI of manufacturing industry fell below the threshold in June 5438+ 10, mainly due to the influence of New Year's Day and Spring Festival and seasonal factors, which also proves that the downward pressure faced by manufacturing industry is greater than the overall economy. However, considering that the non-manufacturing industry continues to expand, there should be no overall decline in the data in the first quarter of this year, and the downward pressure on the economy should be weaker than the previous market expectations and weaker than the situation reflected by the manufacturing industry.
From the 12 sub-index of manufacturing PMI, compared with last month, all other sub-indexes have declined except the backlog order index, finished goods inventory index and supplier delivery time index. [2]
2065438+May 2006 data
The National Bureau of Statistics released the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of China manufacturing industry in May 2065438+2006. In May, the PMI was 50. 1%, which was the same as last month and was in the expansion range for three consecutive months [3].
From the perspective of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.3%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point; The PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, and returned to the expansion range; The PMI of small enterprises was 48.6%, up 1.7 percentage points from last month. Although it is below the critical point, the shrinkage rate is reduced [3].
From the classification index, among the five classification indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, employee index and raw material inventory index are below the critical point [3].
The production index was 52.3%, which increased slightly by 0. 1 percentage point from last month and remained above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing production continued to grow steadily [3].
The new order index was 50.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, but it was higher than the critical point for three consecutive months, indicating that the demand in the manufacturing market kept expanding, but the growth rate slowed down [3].
The employee index was 48.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from last month, still below the critical point, indicating that the employment of manufacturing enterprises has decreased, but the decline has narrowed [3].
The raw material inventory index was 47.6%, slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points from last month, which was lower than the critical point, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease [3].
The supplier delivery time index was 50.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, which was higher than the critical point, indicating that the delivery time of raw material suppliers in manufacturing industry was faster than last month [3].
References:
[1] 2021Operation of China Purchasing Managers Index in June1. National Bureau of Statistics.2021-01-31[citation date: 202 1-02-08]
[2] After a lapse of 27 months, the manufacturing PMI fell below the threshold of China Economic Net [reference date: 20 15-02-02]
[3] The Bureau of Statistics announced the purchasing managers' index of China manufacturing industry 20 16 in May. The Bureau of Statistics announced the purchasing managers' index of China manufacturing industry in May 2065 438+06- China Daily.