But if we really want to choose the next Fed chairman between Yellen and Summers, barack obama can't simply "add and subtract" their advantages and disadvantages, and the person with the highest score will win. He should also consider the possibility of another international financial crisis and decide who is the most suitable new helmsman for the Fed.

The first optimistic situation: If the global economic and financial system continues to maintain the current gradual recovery trend, then choosing Yellen seems to be the right choice.

Yellen's advantage in this respect is obvious. She is well aware of the nuances of the Fed's communication policy and has played a central role in formulating the wording of the Fed's "forward-looking policy guidelines". And she seems to have a high popularity in the US Congress, at least in the Senate controlled by the Democratic Party (the nomination of the Federal Reserve Chairman must be approved by the Senate). What she brings to the Fed will be a stable road for the policy to gradually return to normal.

It may be difficult for an amateur Summers to seek knowledge within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where there are serious differences. He is a little grumpy and served as finance minister in Bill Clinton's government. Former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (USA)? Sheila Bair, a supporter of Yellen, said that it was the political conspiracy of deregulation during Summers' tenure as finance minister that led to the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008. However, Taylor Cowen, an economist at George Mei Sen University, thinks that Summers is more right-wing, so he may be more popular with Congress and Republicans.

But Summers' real advantage can only be revealed when the situation goes wrong. Bradford Delong, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that if there is another serious financial crisis, such as the debt crisis in the euro zone, Summers' innovative thinking ability will be a valuable asset. People who worked with Sam during the Asian financial crisis often praised him for being able to see through the essence of the problem quickly and put forward unique solutions.

Joseph Lavorgna, an economist at Deutsche Bank, pointed out that people like sams and Tim Geithner, the former treasury secretary, have become very strong candidates for the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve, considering that the work of the Fed chairman is becoming more and more international and involves more regulatory contents related to the new financial world order.

However, Summers' advantage as a crisis manager of the Federal Reserve may also depend on the type of international crisis. For example, the unexpected risks brought by China's economic slowdown to the US banking industry cannot be compared with the collapse of the Japanese government bond market, and there is no need for strong intervention by the Federal Reserve.

If Obama is the homeowner, consider flood control? Earthquake or other natural disasters to buy insurance, then he should choose summer. If the situation does not deviate from expectations, Summers' personality may become an obstacle for the Fed's policy to return to normal, and the political cost and market stability cost of choosing him are higher than choosing Yellen.