The so-called "demographic dividend" refers to a country's working-age population accounting for a large proportion of the total population and a relatively low dependency ratio, which creates favorable demographic conditions for economic development. The entire country's economy is characterized by high savings, high investment and high growth.

situation.

“Dividends” correspond to “debts” in many cases.

In January 2013, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in 2012, my country's working-age population aged 15-59 experienced an absolute decline for the first time in a long time, with a decrease of 3.45 million people compared with the previous year. This means that the demographic dividend is trending. will disappear, causing China’s economy to pass through a “deceleration barrier” in the future.

The rapid decline in a country's population fertility rate has accelerated the aging of the population. At the same time, the proportion of child support has dropped rapidly, and the proportion of the working-age population has increased. Before the proportion of the elderly population reaches a high level, a country with relatively abundant labor resources and light support burden will be formed.

, in the "golden period" when economic development is very favorable, population economists call it "demographic dividend".

China's population age structure is in the stage of demographic dividend. The total labor force supplied every year is about 10 million, and the proportion of working population is relatively high, which ensures the demand for labor in economic growth.

Since the peak of population aging has not yet arrived, the burden of social security expenditures is light and wealth accumulation is relatively fast.

Abundant labor resources and cost advantages have made China the world's factory and the engine of world economic growth.

One way to estimate the demographic dividend is to use time series macro-demographic economic data, use the mathematical statistics method of multiple regression, and observe the contribution of population changes to the explanatory ability of economic growth by introducing population and various other factors into the regression equation.

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Another way to calculate the demographic dividend is to calculate the number of effective producers and effective consumers, and then use the ratio of these two types of people as the dependency ratio.

Note that the dependency ratio used here is different from the commonly referred to as the dependency ratio.

This method of calculating the demographic dividend is to decompose the indicator of economic change - the growth rate of output per capita - into two parts, namely the growth rate of output per capita of effective producers and the growth rate of the dependency ratio.

Of these two components, the first is labor productivity and the second is demographic factors.

Assuming that the per capita output growth rate of effective producers remains unchanged, the change in the dependency ratio growth rate can be directly equivalent to its contribution to the per capita output growth rate, that is, the demographic dividend.

In fact, the dividends brought by demographic changes to economic development include not only an increase in labor supply, but also expansion of savings and increases in human capital investment and returns.

Since the population is most likely to save between the ages of 40 and 60, more people who can live to this age will bring more savings.

More savings means more capital.

An increase in the amount of capital possessed by each worker can increase labor productivity.

At the same time, the extension of life expectancy has fundamentally changed people's concept of human capital investment, created more opportunities for the use of technological inventions, and improved the return on human capital investment.

A healthier population is also a more productive population.

The role of health is not limited to increasing physical strength, but also lies in the development and use of intellectual thinking.

It can be seen that the calculation of demographic dividend needs to comprehensively consider the impact of employment, income and other variables on economic growth, rather than relying solely on the number of working-age population as some people misunderstand.

At the same time, with the demographic transition, the changes in the population age structure are not repeatable, and there is no so-called "continuous" demographic dividend.

Basic Situation China’s sustained and rapid economic growth in recent decades has become a “miracle” in the world.

When discussing why China has been able to create a "miracle" of economic growth, many people believe that the impact of the "demographic dividend" is a crucial reason, and the "demographic dividend" is therefore linked to the prospects for China's sustained economic growth.

The "demographic dividend" began to appear in our country as early as 1965-1970, but for a long time after the "demographic dividend" appeared, we did not seem to feel the impact of the "dividend". On the contrary, we felt more

Population pressure and employment pressure, a large number of rural surplus labor and urban unemployment have seriously plagued economic growth.

In the past 10 years, with the rapid economic growth, the number of unemployed people began to decrease significantly and labor resources began to be fully utilized. Only then did we truly feel the beneficial impact of the "demographic dividend" on economic growth.

Economic Impact The "demographic dividend" does not mean that the economy will inevitably grow, but once economic growth enters the fast lane, the "demographic dividend" will inevitably become a powerful booster for economic growth.

Abundant labor resources and cost advantages have made my country the world's factory and the engine of world economic growth. However, this has also raised a worrying question: When the "demographic dividend" period ends, how long can my country's economy continue to grow?

To answer this question, we must understand how the "demographic dividend" affects economic growth.

Simply put, the "demographic dividend" or the impact of changes in the population's age structure on economic growth mainly includes the following two aspects: one is the impact on the production field, and the other is the impact on consumption and savings.

The impact of the "demographic dividend" on the production field is mainly reflected in the labor supply.