Part One: Book Introduction 1. Author Nicholas Taleb, founder of a fund company and currently a distinguished professor at New York University. He has focused his life on studying uncertainty and probability. He became famous because he successfully predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis.

Supplement: Thaler applied antifragile theory in practice and made a lot of money in the stock market. During the 1987 U.S. stock market crash, he made a lot of money by shorting the stock market; ?After the 911 incident in 2001, he shorted U.S. stocks again.

He made a fortune; before the US financial crisis broke out in 2008, he repeated his old tricks and made another fortune from the stock market.

The occurrence of crises has a negative impact on ordinary people, but Taleb can avoid crises and benefit from black swan events.

2. Content: Risk management for unpredictable events, avoiding damage from uncertainty or even taking advantage of uncertainty to gain.

Part Two: Topic Output Topic One: Fragility and Anti-Fragility Topic Two? Why should we learn anti-fragility Topic Three to Improve Anti-Fragility Capabilities Topic One: Fragility and Anti-Fragility 1.1 Fragility and Anti-Fragility Fragility: refers to the risk of vulnerability due to volatility and uncertainty

Take the loss.

Antifragility: is allowing yourself to avoid these losses and even profit from chaos and uncertainty.

It is impossible for people to truly predict accidents, because there will always be more accidents after the accident, so it is impossible to truly deal with the risks caused by uncertainty.

The purpose of antifragility is to not only not suffer losses when uncertainty occurs, but also to benefit from the uncertainty.

To use a vivid metaphor, a glass is placed beautifully on the table. Now there is an earthquake. What will happen?

If the cup falls on the ground, if it breaks, then it is fragile; imagine that there is a cup, when it falls on the ground, instead of breaking, it turns into two cups. At this time, it is antifragile.

When a small probability event occurs, Cup will not only not suffer losses, but also benefit from it.

1.2 Examples of vulnerability? 1. Only one source of income. If you have only one source of salary income and are middle-aged, the risks will be very high. Weather, politics, economy, and life, you may never think of which one looks like

Changes that have nothing to do with you will affect your life.

If you are suddenly laid off or eliminated one day, it may not be because of your poor performance, but simply because of the company's strategic adjustment.

If you have several sources of income, and the channels are different, your risk resistance is greatest at this time.

?2. New Oriental’s massive layoffs are not because your performance is not good, but because the country suddenly takes action on the training industry; 1.3 Why should we learn to be anti-fragile? Humans always think that man can conquer nature, are overconfident in the system they design, and ignore the risks caused by black swan events. Once

In the event of a black swan event that is almost impossible to occur, the system that makes you proud will collapse, and the losses will exceed the previous gains.

There are countless such examples, such as the Fukushima incident in Japan and the Soros short selling incident in Southeast Asia in 1997.

As managers of individuals and organizations, it is extremely important to identify the fragility of the system, how to prevent it, and even benefit from the fragility of the system.

Theme 3: Improve anti-fragile capabilities as an individual or a company. The author gives several strategies: 1. Reduce adverse factors. For individuals, stay away from high risks, reduce the probability of exposure to fatal risks, and try to avoid engaging in high-risk industries; for companies

Generally speaking, the strategy should be to reduce the disadvantages rather than increase the advantages, avoid taking risks, and always survive first and develop later.

Case: An investment bank that went bankrupt during the 2008 financial crisis underwrote extremely risky non-performing assets in order to earn a small profit in insurance fees.

2. Barbell strategy exchanges limited losses for unlimited possible gains.

Paying attention to both extremes of the best and the worst at the same time and avoiding the middle of the barbell has the advantage of eliminating devastating risks.

Invest 90% of resources in the safest areas, and invest 10% of resources in areas where losses may be low but gains may be infinite (maximum safety + maximum speculation), instead of spending all your money

Investing in medium-risk projects allows us to be more resilient to uncertainty and even benefit from it.

In this strategy, the maximum risk is known and tolerable, but once a positive black swan event occurs (positive returns are greater than negative returns), there will be no upper limit to the returns.