As of1October 3 1 20 18, the market value of fund positions in the communication industry was1504 billion yuan, accounting for 1.60%, up 0. 13pp compared with the interim report. In the third quarterly report, the top five fund positions in the communication industry were: Fiberhome Communication (with a stock market value of 2.448 billion yuan, accounting for 7.50% of the outstanding shares), Halo New Network (with a stock market value of 654.38 billion yuan+93.4 million yuan, accounting for 9.69% of the outstanding shares) and ZTE (with a stock market value of 65.438+0.5565438 billion yuan, accounting for 244% of the outstanding shares). 8.06% of the outstanding shares) and China Unicom (with a market value of 65.438+0.68 billion yuan, accounting for 0.90% of the outstanding shares), while the top five positions of the fund shown in the interim report are: Zhongji Xu Chuang (with a market value of 2.76 billion yuan, accounting for 265.438+0.43% of the outstanding shares) and Halo New Network (with a market value of 22./kloc-0). Accounting for 1 1.9 1%), ZTE (holding market value of 1.898 million yuan, accounting for 4.24% of the outstanding shares), NetScience (holding market value of 1.879 million yuan, accounting for/kloc). Among them, Zhongji Xu Chuang, Wang Su Science and Technology and Hengtong Optoelectronics fell out of the top five fund heavyweight stocks, Fiberhome Communications jumped to the first heavyweight stock, and Hagrid Communications and China Unicom ranked fourth and fifth respectively.
Second, although the profit of the communication industry declined, the chain ratio improved and the trend improved, and the industry prosperity began to pick up.
From the perspective of the whole communication sector (CITIC Construction Investment Database), in the first three quarters of 2065438+2008, the overall revenue of the A-share communication industry was 647.483 billion yuan, up 9.09% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was152.65 million yuan, down 34.02% year-on-year. If ZTE and China Unicom were excluded and new shares were merged, the revenue was 273.558 billion yuan, up 6.5438+05.06% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 65.438+0348 billion yuan, down 0.4% year-on-year. We believe that the main reason for the decline in net profit attributable to the parent company of the communication industry as a whole is that the capital expenditure of telecom operators has been declining at the low point of the last 4G cycle and the first 5G cycle, and it is expected to be 29 1 1 billion yuan in 2008, down about 6% year-on-year. In addition, compared with the interim report, the overall net profit attributable to the mother in the first three quarters also decreased, but the chain-on-chain ratio improved, and the trend was good (the overall net profit attributable to the mother in the communication sector decreased by 60.77% in the first half of the year, and after excluding ZTE, China Unicom, consolidated statements and new shares, the net profit attributable to the mother decreased by 65,438+02.19%). We think this is related to the impact of ZTE incident on centralized procurement of operators in the first half of the year and the backward progress of capital expenditure in the first half of the year. Therefore, on the whole, the lowest point of the communication industry may have passed, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to improve.
Third, the operators grew steadily as a whole, China Mobile's revenue declined, and ZTE's fundamentals improved.
From the perspective of the three major operators, China Telecom and China Unicom are growing steadily, while China Mobile is under pressure. In the first three quarters of 20 18, the three major operators realized a total operating income of 1072383 million yuan, up 2.13% year-on-year; The net profit returned to the mother11750.4 billion yuan, up 4.99% year-on-year. China Mobile's revenue declined for the first time, reaching 567.700 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 0.32% year-on-year. Unicom's mixed reform achieved results, with a net profit of 3.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 65.438+064.50%. We believe that with the penetration rate of 4G users increasing to about 80%, the penetration rate will enter a bottleneck period. In addition, under the background of "speeding up and reducing fees" and "market competition", the ARPU of operators' users may continue to decline, which will put pressure on operators' future performance and cast a shadow over the growth of capital expenditure. Therefore, we believe that although the capital expenditure of operators will return to the growth channel with the 5G cycle, the expectation of 20 19 should not be too high.
From the perspective of wireless first-and second-tier manufacturers, ZTE achieved revenue of 58.766 billion yuan in the first three quarters, down 23.26% year-on-year; The net loss was 7.26 billion yuan, down 285.92% year-on-year, and the revenue in the third quarter was 65.438+09.332 billion yuan, down 65.438+04.34% year-on-year. The net profit was 564 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.98%. In the third quarter, the net profit not attributable to the mother was 65.438+0.20 billion yuan, down 244.58% year-on-year. The net profit of this caliber turned positive, reflecting that the company's operating fundamentals began to improve.
Fourth, in terms of sectors, the reform of state-owned enterprises, private networks and Beidou performed well, while the valuation of optical communication equipment and online education was relatively low.
20 18Q3 The top three sectors of the growth rate of the net profit returned to the mother are: state-owned enterprise reform (4.033 billion yuan, 262.52%), private network (1689 million yuan,17.05%) and Beidou (786 million yuan). Note: Figures before and after brackets indicate: net profit attributable to mother, year-on-year growth rate.
Based on the size and volume of each sector, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the mother, gross profit margin and market attention, the analysis of key sub-sectors in the communication industry is as follows:
IDC and the cloud computing industry, the growth rate is stable, the gross profit margin is stable, and the industry fundamentals continue to improve. In the first three quarters of 20 18, the revenue of IDC and cloud computing sector was 22.75 billion yuan, up by 30.4 1% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the mother was 2.544 billion yuan, up by 65.438+02.40% year-on-year, and the gross profit rate was 32.9%, up by 0. 14pp year-on-year. From the revenue side, the industry demand still maintained a rapid growth trend, and the gross profit margin was relatively stable. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the whole industry does not match the growth rate of income, mainly because the profits of individual companies (Ke Hua Hang Seng and Goldman Sachs Holdings) have fallen sharply.
The optical device industry as a whole has improved. Because the third quarter of 20 17 in Xu Chuang was consolidated, the revenue of optical devices in the first three quarters of 20 18 was 740,654.38 million yuan, up by 12.80% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 942 million yuan, up by 6 165438 year-on-year. With the same caliber, in the first half of 20 18, the revenue increased by 10.28% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother decreased by10.88% year-on-year. We expect the improvement to be due to ZTE's resumption of operation and production.
The Beidou plate is growing rapidly and the leading effect is remarkable. The overall net profit of Beidou plate in the first three quarters was 786 million yuan, up 63.44% year-on-year, of which 384 million yuan was in the military sector, up 25.82% year-on-year, and 402 million yuan was in the civilian sector, up 128.92% year-on-year. The growth of the military sector was mainly driven by Hagrid Communications, with a net profit of 256 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.09%. The growth of the civil sector was mainly driven by joint efforts, with a net profit of 262 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 267.438+0%.
The profit growth rate of optical fiber and cable industry declined, and the gross profit margin also declined slightly. The net profit attributable to the mother in the first three quarters of 20 18 was 4.805 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14. 17%, which was significantly lower than the growth rate of 2 1. 19% in the first half of the year. Gross profit margin 18.75%, down 0.6 1pp year-on-year. We think this is related to the fact that the demand of China Mobile in the first half of the year was less than expected.
In the Internet of Things sector, the company is gradually divided, so it is very important to choose high-quality targets. In the whole Internet of Things sector, the net profit attributable to the mother in the first three quarters of 20 18 was 77 10/00000 yuan, down 48.95% year-on-year, mainly due to the substantial loss of Yitong Century (-570 million yuan, -454.8 1%), and the growth rate of the sector slowed down, while Hetai (256.55) The development of companies in different vertical segments is bound to be different, and the profitability of pure Internet of Things business is still weak, relying more on existing businesses. Therefore, it is very important to select high-quality vertical industries and high-quality targets for the Internet of Things sector.
The reform of state-owned enterprises has greatly warmed up. In the first three quarters of 20 18, the net profit returned to the mother was 4.033 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 262.52%. Its growth rate has greatly increased, which is mainly related to China Unicom. China Unicom's net profit in the first three quarters was 3.47 billion yuan, up 65,438+064.50% year-on-year.
Based on the consistent profit forecast data of communication companies, the latest PE valuation of each sector is calculated. On the whole, the sectors with higher valuation of 20 18 are state-owned enterprise reform (48), vehicle networking (36) and optical devices (35), while the sectors with lower valuation are optical cables (13), communication value-added services (14) and private networks (/kloc-0).
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Investment suggestion in the fourth quarter: choose the opportunity to lay out 5G, cloud computing and network security.
1)5G spectrum will be released soon, and the test scheme will advance rapidly. It is recommended to invest around the 5G main line.
Due to process problems, the release time of 5G spectrum is relatively later than expected, but we expect that the release probability of 165438+ 10 is very high. Spectrum division will lay a solid foundation for 5G commercialization, indicating that the determination to promote 5G will not change, and the commercial target will remain unchanged in 2020. Previously, the "Three-year Action Plan for Expanding and Upgrading Information Consumption" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission also clarified that China will start 5G commercialization in 2020;
We estimate that the number of 5G macro stations and room substations may be 4G 1.3 times, and the investment scale may be 4 G 1.5 times ... China's 5G construction began on 20 18, and its performance may be in 2020, with the peak of transmission side construction possibly in 2020-202 1.
5G is related to the direction of science and technology and major infrastructure, and it is determined to remain unchanged. It is suggested to pay attention to ZTE, Fiberhome Communication, Shennan Circuit, Tianfu Communication, Guangxun Technology, Sega Technology, Zhongji Xu Chuang, Tongyu Communication and Hetai.
2) The fundamentals of cloud computing and IDC industries continued to improve, and the industry maintained rapid growth. From the perspective of the whole sector in the first half of the year, the industry continued to grow rapidly and the gross profit margin was stable. Suggested attention: Halo New Network, Shen Xin, Ziguang and Starnet Ruijie.
3) The importance of network security is prominent, and self-control is a long-term trend. After the military reform, the national defense market has picked up, and the domestic substitution of related core devices has been superimposed. Suggested attention: Haige Communication, Sino-Singapore Seck, Hengwei Technology, Zhenxin Technology, He Zhong Si Zhuang, etc.
(Article source: CITIC Jiantou)