Although MLF continued to shrink, the central bank simultaneously carried out reverse repurchase operations of 654.38+072 billion yuan, and after the hedging expired of 2 billion yuan, it realized a net short-term liquidity of 654.38+070 billion yuan; In addition, since June 5438+065438+ 10, the central bank has also invested 320 billion yuan in medium and long-term liquidity through tools such as mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) and scientific and technological innovation refinancing. Overall, the total medium and long-term liquidity this month has been higher than the MLF maturity.
"Overall, it is relatively stable. Even if MLF contracts, from the perspective of liquidity scale, it far exceeds the amount due in the current month. " Ming Ming, chief economist of CITIC Securities (600030), told the First Financial Reporter that the liquidity of the whole market is in a reasonable and abundant state at present, and the change of the operation combination of the central bank shows that it is more inclined to flow funds to the real economy and support the growth of the real economy by increasing credit supply.
Looking forward to the market outlook, many insiders said that the possibility of the central bank's comprehensive RRR reduction during the year is reduced, mainly through structural policies to support economic recovery.
The reduction of MLF operation is 654.38+050 billion yuan.
After the MLF was continuously lowered in August and September, it continued to be lowered by the same amount in June at 5438+ 10. However, in the month of 1 1, MLF returned to shrinkage again. As the MLF maturity reached a monthly high this month, coupled with recent changes in the liquidity environment, the interest rate of interbank deposit certificates continued to rise, and the market had strong expectations for subsequent RRR interest rate cuts. Some people think that the central bank may use RRR to cut interest rates instead of MLF in June165438+1October, so as to balance liquidity and reduce the cost of bank liabilities.
This expectation has obviously failed. 165438+1October15th, the central bank announced that, in order to hedge against the influence of factors such as the peak tax period and keep liquidity in the banking system reasonably abundant, the MLF operation of RMB 850 billion and the reverse repurchase operation of RMB172 billion were launched on the same day to fully meet the needs of financial institutions. The winning interest rates are 2.75% and 2.00% respectively, which is the same as before.
Zhou, a macro analyst of China Everbright Bank (60 18 18), told the First Financial Reporter that the current market has sufficient medium-and long-term liquidity, and the scale of MLF operation, PSL (supplementary mortgage loan) and refinancing tool funds have exceeded 1. 1 trillion yuan; On the other hand, the financial data of 5,438+10 in June reflected the weak financing demand of the real economy, which also restrained the demand of financial institutions for medium and long-term liquidity to some extent, so it is not unexpected to continue to do MLF this time.
The central bank also mentioned in the announcement that since June, 5438+0 1 and 320 billion yuan of medium and long-term liquidity has been invested through PSL, scientific and technological innovation refinancing and other tools, and the total medium and long-term liquidity has been higher than the MLF maturity this month.
Regarding why the central bank did not implement RRR reduction to replace the expired MLF, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that there may be three main reasons. First of all, reducing RRR and replacing MLF at maturity have a limited effect on reducing the cost of bank funds, while guiding banks to reduce deposit interest rates has a more obvious effect on pushing LPR (loan market quotation) down. In September, commercial banks have started a new round of deposit interest rate reduction, including deposit interest rate reduction, so there is no need to use RRR reduction tools at present.
Secondly, Wang Qing said that the high inflation situation in the United States is unlikely to change significantly in the future. Before the second quarter of 2023, the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates with a high probability, and the US dollar index is likely to maintain a strong operating state, which means that the current internal and external balance and the stability of the RMB exchange rate occupy a high proportion in the macroeconomic policy trade-off. On the one hand, RRR reduction is a "routine liquidity operation after monetary policy returns to normal", but the market can easily understand it as an important measure of monetary easing. Therefore, from the perspective of stabilizing the exchange rate, the current regulatory authorities are cautious about implementing RRR cuts.
Moreover, looking back on the previous RRR cuts since 20 17, except that it was officially announced by the central bank in April of 20 18, other RRR cuts were made in advance through the the State Council executive meeting and other forms, and the central bank officially announced them later. "As of now, there is no similar arrangement in public channels. This actually indicates to a large extent that it is unlikely that MLF will be replaced in June 1 1. " Wang Qing said.
The scale of reverse repurchase operations has increased.
Although the medium-and long-term liquidity is guaranteed, in the short term, the fluctuation of funds has obviously increased since the end of 10. Up to now, the average value of DR007 (the 7-day bond repurchase rate of deposit institutions) is 1.76%, which is 10 basis point higher than the average value of last month and 24 basis points lower than the corresponding policy interest rate (the 7-day reverse repo rate of the central bank).
At the same time, the average value of DR00 1 in overnight rate is 1.66%, which is 32 basis points higher than the average value of last month. In addition, since June 1 1, the yield to maturity average of 1 year (AAA grade) interbank deposit certificates is 2. 16%, which is 15 basis points higher than last month's average and still lower than the corresponding policy interest rate (MLF interest rate) by 59 basis points.
The latest data of Bank of Shanghai (60 1229),165438+1October 15, shows that all varieties have increased across the board. Among them, overnight Shibor increased by 20.7BP to 1.8530%, and in 7 days Shibor increased by 8.3BP to1.9290%; 1 month, Shibor increased by 6.3BP to1.8310%; In six months, Shibor rose by 9.5BP to 2.0430%; Shibor rose by 9. 1BP to 2.2240% in one year.
"In June of 5438+00, the fiscal revenue usually exceeds the expenditure, and the payment pressure at the end of the month is superimposed. At the end of June this year, 10 capital fluctuations increased significantly. " Ming Ming told reporters that observing the trend of funds throughout the year, the pulse-like upward trend of interest rate of funds in this round is obviously greater than that in other non-end-of-season months, which is close to the high level at the end of September. It can be seen that with the continuous contraction of MLF in August and September, the total amount of superimposed wide money instruments continues to be absent, and the water level of the current fund reservoir may decrease, which makes the influence of conventional seasonal factors amplified.
In this regard, the central bank simultaneously increased the scale of reverse repurchase operations, and launched a 7-day reverse repurchase in 1 15 in October, with a net investment of 172 billion yuan after 2 billion yuan was hedged. The central bank operates flexibly, moderately increases short-term liquidity, meets the needs of financial institutions, stabilizes market expectations, and stabilizes funds.
Looking forward to the market outlook, it is obvious that although the fiscal expenditure in June 5438+065438+ 10 and June 5438+February is often greater than the income, with the approach of the New Year's Eve, it is expected that the seasonal tightening pressure on funds will further increase.
The LPR for more than 5 years may still be lowered.
Judging from the operating interest rate, the operating interest rate of MLF 5438+065438+ 10 remained unchanged in June, and remained unchanged for three consecutive months after the unexpected "interest rate cut" in August. Many people in the industry believe that this is mainly due to the current macroeconomic recovery stage, and the stability of domestic policy interest rates is conducive to better balancing internal and external balance.
Zhou told reporters that at present, the domestic economy is facing a complex environment, and it may be difficult to achieve the expected results only by the central bank's interest rate reduction measures; In fact, at present, domestic demand is restrained, and some industries and enterprises are facing difficulties, which require the cooperation of multi-sectoral policies and measures and rely more on structural tools; At the same time, the market is sensitive to the central bank's interest rate cut, and monetary policy needs to take into account the internal and external balance to promote the steady growth of domestic demand.
Wang Qing also said that the MLF operating interest rate remains unchanged, indicating that the impact of the current epidemic on economic operation needs further observation, and the stability of domestic policy interest rates will also help stabilize foreign exchange market expectations. Recently, due to the high fall of the US dollar index and the optimization and adjustment of domestic epidemic prevention and control measures, the pressure of unilateral depreciation in the foreign exchange market has been significantly reduced, and the risk of rapid depreciation of the RMB exchange rate away from the US dollar has been reduced. However, stabilizing the foreign exchange market still occupies an important position in the macro-policy agenda.
As the anchor of LPR pricing, the constant interest rate of MLF indicates that the probability of the constant interest rate of LPR will increase this month. This is mainly because a series of policies have been introduced to rescue the market and expand domestic demand, and the next primary goal is to implement a detailed package of policy measures and fully release the policy dividend; At the same time, guide financial institutions to continue to increase support for weak links and key areas and expand effective demand.
However, Wang Qing thinks that the price of LPR over five years in 165438+ 10 may be lowered again 15 basis points. On the one hand, since September, commercial banks have started a new round of deposit interest rate reduction, which means that the capital cost of banks will have a large marginal decline in the near future, which will increase the motivation for quotation banks to lower LPR quotations; On the other hand, with the focus of steady growth and risk control in the fourth quarter and early next year, the property market will show a warming trend as soon as possible. In the near future, the regulatory authorities may instruct the quotation bank to lower the 5-year LPR quotation, which may be confirmed as early as 2 1 this month. In this context, it is expected that the residential mortgage interest rate will continue to decline in the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, at the policy level, many people in the industry interviewed by reporters said that the possibility of RRR reduction has declined in the short term. Zhou said that this is mainly due to three factors. First, in June, M2 5438+00 maintained a high level year-on-year, reflecting the moderate growth of the total amount of money and credit; Second, liquidity in the banking system has maintained a moderate abundance, and recently introduced policies such as stabilizing the property market, supporting the incremental continuation of small and micro enterprises, and continuing to do MLF this time; Third, at present, the key is to guide financial institutions to reduce the financing cost of the real economy, while taking into account external equilibrium.
Yao Ming also said that in the short term, the possibility of a comprehensive RRR cut by the central bank is reduced, and more is to support economic recovery through structural policies.
However, there are also views that there is still the possibility of lowering RRR during the year. Yif Wang, chief banking analyst of Everbright Securities (60 1788), said that according to the law of bank credit structure, the whole year is generally arranged in twos and threes. At present, with the increasing competition of banks for high-quality customers, the credit supply continues to advance throughout the year, and it is expected that the pace will be 432 1 in 2023, so as to better realize early supply and early benefit. Coupled with the early issuance of local government special bonds, the structural liquidity shortage will be further restored.