On Friday, the index opened higher and went higher, and the total turnover of the two cities was 8 189 billion. On the disk, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, textile and clothing, communications and other industries were among the top gainers, while coal, food and beverage, banking and other industries were among the top losers. The daily limit of the two cities is 65, and the daily limit is 43. The net selling amount of funds going north is 654.38+0.25 billion. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.97 to 336 1.44, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.53% to 13328.06, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.08% to 2908.94.
market outlook
Recently, public offerings and private equity funds frequently issued self-purchase announcements, and the number of public offerings reached 654.38+0.46 billion for three consecutive days. Historically, the tide of fund self-purchase appeared in March 2065438 +04, September 2065438 +05, June 2065438 +0 1, February 2020, and now June 2022. * * * Similarities are almost always accompanied by the emergence of a policy bottom. In addition, it is worth noting that last year, some top-flow funds that stopped subscription for fear that the scale would affect their own performance began to release subscription one after another, which is the embodiment of the fund's recognition of the current market investment value.
In fact, another worry of everyone comes from the breakdown of the annual line called the dividing line between cattle and bears. Judging from past experience, A-shares' falling below the dividing line between bull and bear requires either a long-term bear market suffering or a short-term rapid correction. But since 20 19, this situation has improved obviously. The fluctuation range of the index near the annual line is obviously reduced, and even we will find that falling below the annual line is a good time to buy. The emergence of this situation, we think, is caused by the change of A-share ecology. On the one hand, after the normalization of registration system and delisting, the potential yield of A shares has increased. On the other hand, the proportion of domestic and foreign institutions in tradable shares has gradually increased. At present, the proportion of institutions has approached 50%, and it is expected to further improve in the future. We all know that institutions are more rational than individual investors. The increase of institutional shareholding ratio is expected to further reduce the overall fluctuation of A shares. This time, A shares fell below the annual line, which may be a good time for our left layout.
Finally, I still have to mention the valuation. The percentage of P/E ratio of CSI 500 is close to the lowest level in history. Medical care, which used to be at a high valuation percentile, has also fallen back to an undervalued area because of the recent sharp correction. Daniel Kahneman, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, mentioned in his book Thinking Fast and Slow that all performances will have mean regression. In the stock market, it is normal for indexes and industries to return to the mean value. We might as well use the law of mean value regression to make the left layout of low valuation indexes and industries.
Operation strategy
The bottom of the A-share policy has appeared, but the plunge in the late session shows that everyone is still worried about the uncertainty of the long holiday. The construction of the emotional bottom may require more policy combination boxing to hedge the market concerns. But one thing is certain, some industries have already had the opportunity to open positions on the left side due to the sharp decline. We might as well focus on the two concepts of steady growth and inflation mentioned above. Among them, suggestions for steady growth focus on TMT, middle reaches of new energy, finance in new and old infrastructure, and suggestions under inflation expectations focus on opportunities in cement, steel, oil and gas and coal industries.
Li, senior investment consultant of GF Securities, with the practice certificate number S0260612110012.