He thinks like this: it must be those unexpected things that make us suffer.
Therefore, in order to avoid risks, we should not rely on forecasting the market, but prepare for all kinds of potential accidents in advance.
What kind of accident will happen?
After his summary, the accident mainly comes from people's expectations of economic growth and inflation.
Specifically divided into four situations:
Economic development is greater than market expectation, economic development is less than market expectation, inflation is greater than market expectation, and inflation is less than market expectation.
As long as we find a way to deal with each situation, we can avoid systemic risks well.
This is a four-season map of Daglio's investment. I don't know when the four seasons will appear, but they will definitely appear at some time in the future. How to invest?
With the investment targets in different seasons, you can do asset allocation.
Finally, Dalio made the following configuration:
30% shares
15% medium-term treasury bonds
40% of long-term national debt
7.5% gold
7.5% of goods
To put it simply, he ensures that no matter what season the market is in, funds can get certain returns while avoiding risks through the allocation of four categories of assets: stocks, bonds, gold and commodities.
This is the world-famous all-weather investment strategy.
So what is its historical benefit?
Similarly, looking at the data of 40 years from 1973 to 20 13, the annualized rate of return of the all-weather strategy in Dalian and Liaoning is 9.5% and the volatility is 8.24%.
Compared with Buffett's portfolio in the same period, the yield of all-weather strategy is not weak at all, and the volatility is reduced by 465,438+0%, which is even better.