First of all, the Fed's monetary policy has undergone a trend change.
From the beginning of 2020 to 202 1, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been emphasizing employment and economic growth, and has been expanding. But at the end of 20021,the Federal Reserve began to pay attention to prices. In February of that year, the CPI in the United States was as high as 7%, and the just-released consumer price index in February 2022 reached 7.
In the fourth quarter of 20021,the Federal Reserve began to admit that there was inflation in the United States. At the regular meeting of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in June, 2022, the color of "hawks" was stronger, and measures were taken to tighten the currency. As a result, the US dollar index rose, non-US currencies fell rapidly, and global stock markets showed a downward trend. This time point is basically synchronized with the decline of A shares.
Second, credit expansion is blocked.
Judging from the total amount of social financing, it is about 30 trillion yuan in 2020 and 20021year, including 20 trillion yuan in credit financing and 8 trillion yuan in real estate financing, accounting for about 40% of credit financing. It is estimated that at least 40% of the 10 trillion yuan social financing other than credit financing is directly related to the real estate industry. If there is resistance in the real estate industry, credit growth will be blocked with great probability. February credit data was lower than market expectations. The most critical factor is the negative growth of housing mortgage loans for the first time since statistics were available in 2007.
Third, Public Offering of Fund's "Bao Tuan" investment was blocked, and the heavy stocks of high valuation funds entered the journey of valuation return
From 20 19 to 2020, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by about 30% for two consecutive years, and the average income of the fund was quite rich, forming a positive feedback between the fund and the stock price. The public offering of funds grew rapidly. In 2020, equity and hybrid funds will issue 3 trillion shares, a record high. The newly raised funds keep buying the fund's heavy stocks, which leads to the rising prices of these stocks. The most typical one is Kweichow Moutai, whose share price was only 500 yuan at the beginning of 20 19, which rose sharply for two consecutive years under the impetus of funds, and its share price exceeded 2,600 yuan at the beginning of 200219.
Fourth, the issuance of new shares has accelerated, and the pressure on the original shareholders to cash out has gradually emerged.
In 20021year, the number of new IPOs reached a record high, and more than 500 shares were issued throughout the year. Although the funds raised by new shares are only about 540 billion yuan, the pressure on the original shareholders to cash out has gradually increased.